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November 15, 2022 | Ponzi central
Humans seem to be endlessly vulnerable to the lure of easy money. Harder to accept, however, are those educated and trained to be professional money managers who still throw cash at charlatans and ideas with non-sensical valuations. When elders fail to lead, chaos grows. The segment below highlights the blatantly obvious mania that has piled […]
November 9, 2022 | Cryptodoom and AirBnBust
The policy-induced everything bubble is imploding globally, as it must. Overnight, we see contagion from highly levered Ponzi schemes in the crypto space as liquidity evaporates and panic justifiably spreads. Many naked emperors will be exposed here. Grandaddy Bitcoin (shown below) has tumbled to the lowest price since November 2020. See. Crypto markets tumble to a 2-year low […]
November 8, 2022 | Liquidity Contraction Remains Dominant Trend
The midterm election is historically a negative for the president’s party, and this year is expected to be no different. Exit polls suggest that Republicans are poised to sweep the House and the Senate in today’s mid-term. Bulls insist that this outcome would be a positive for equity markets regardless of the macro backdrop. Thinking […]
November 7, 2022 | Slower Growth for China is Paradigm Shift for World Economy
Unverified online posts about the potential reopening of China continue to inspire periodic rebounds in commodity and stock prices. After nearly two years of disappointment and $6 trillion of losses, last week, Chinese stocks soared on frenzied speculation that a bottom has finally arrived. Then, on the weekend, bullish dreams were dampened once more as Chinese Health officials […]
November 5, 2022 | Danielle on CBC’s weekend business panel
Danielle was a guest with Rubina Ahmed-Haq and host John Northcott on the CBC Weekend Business Panel today. You can watch a video clip of the segment here.
November 3, 2022 | What Went Up Must Come Down
Yesterday, Fed chair Jerome Powell reiterated his commitment to combating inflation (lagging indicator) at the expense of economic growth, employment and asset prices (leading indicator). Stocks didn’t like the message. In an abrupt reversal, every market sector tumbled into the close, with 474 of S&P 500 members ending in the red. There’s a point of […]
November 2, 2022 | Why the 2022 Housing Shortage is Over
Eric’s presentation illuminates the components of housing supply and how it impacts prices. The Housing Shortage has been one of the most popular stories in real estate and the economy over the last year. You see headlines about the lack of inventory driving up home prices everywhere you look. Many said home prices would not […]
November 1, 2022 | And So The Cycle Goes
Canadian monthly home sales in September were -32% year-over-year and 12% below the pre-pandemic 10-year average for September (chart below since 2007 courtesy of Martin Pelletier). October sales appear to have been worse. Many who bought properties during the 2020-2022 frenzy are now underwater in terms of resale value. Others refinanced existing properties to extract equity […]
October 31, 2022 | Housing Led Recession Just Getting Started
In the video, we will analyze economic data that could predict the coming housing crash. We will look at monetary liquidity, mortgage rates, home price-to-income ratios, builder sentiment, and more to determine a probable path forward for the U.S. housing market. The headwind facing further central bank hiking is that the global credit impulse (movement […]
October 26, 2022 | Bank of Canada Blinks, Stocks Should Next
Too loose for too long, central banks have responded to lagging inflationary pressures in 2022 with the sharpest six-month tightening cycle on record. The Bank of Canada (BOC) was in the batter’s box this morning and after raising its policy rate to 3% last month from .25 in January, had telegraphed another +.75bps for today. […]
October 25, 2022 | Biblical Mean Reversion in Motion
Subprime loan delinquency rates are higher than the 2008 recession levels today, with unemployment still near all-time lows and the layoff cycle just beginning… Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley to ring the alarm bell about the housing and auto markets, which by her reading of the data […]
October 22, 2022 | Danielle on CBC Weekend Business Panel
Danielle was a guest with Elmer Kim and host John Northcott on the CBC Weekend Business Panel today. You can watch a video clip of the segment here.
October 21, 2022 | EPB Macro: Four Stages of the Economic Slowdown, Update
On today’s episode of “On the Margin”, Eric Basmajian, Founder of EPB Macro Research joins the show for an update on his “Four Stages of An Economic Slowdown” episode of On The Margin released in April of 2022. Here is a direct video link.
October 19, 2022 | Yields Lead Housing, Unemployment and Stocks
The US National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), designed to gauge market conditions, fell to 38 in October from 46 in September, now 50% lower than it was six months ago (below 50 is considered negative), and the largest year over year decline in history. Builders cite higher interest rates […]
October 18, 2022 | Record Tightening Priced into Treasuries, Equities Not Yet
As shown below, since 1999, courtesy of The Daily Shot, the US 10-year minus 2-year Treasury bond yield spread at -.52 last week was the most negative since the onset of the 2001-02 and 2007-09 US recessions. An imminent recession is also predicted by Bloomberg probability models that now forecast a 100% likelihood of a US […]
October 17, 2022 | Marketplace Looks at Canadian Mortgage Fraud
Easy credit and speculative frenzy enabled an extended bull market in fraud. As financial liquidity retreats a plethora of reckless and illegal activities are being laid bare. We go undercover to investigate mortgage brokers and real estate agents perpetrating mortgage fraud for a fee, securing commissions by submitting fake documents for approval. Here is a direct […]
October 14, 2022 | EPB Macro: October 2022 Monthly Cyclical Trends Update
EPB Macro does an excellent job of summarizing key trends in economic and market data. The latest Monthly Cyclical Trends Update: October 2022 is out today for subscribers only, but Eric has generously allowed me to share the video overview with my readers below. Twenty-one minutes worth watching. The [Monthly Cyclical Trends Update] is a once-per-month, […]
October 12, 2022 | The Everything Bust Will Take Some Time
Yesterday, Canada’s TSX stock index closed at 18,215, breaking below its previous July low of 18,329. As I noted in Tech leading lower, the February 2020 high of 17,944 is the next price test on deck for the TSX. As of today’s open, the Canadian benchmark is -18% since March and just 1.5% above where it […]
October 11, 2022 | Self-Dealing is Rampant and We Keep Paying For It
Self-dealing is when a fiduciary acts in their own best interest in a transaction. It is text-book corruption and apparently widespread among government and regulatory representatives on the left and the right. Undermining objectively determined policies and the rule of law is indefensible and socially destructive, so why do we tolerate it? See Government officials invest in companies […]
October 10, 2022 | Tech Leading Lower
Technology shares led overall markets higher from 2020 through 2021 as government hand-outs, low-interest rates, and spare time enabled both a retail spending boom and a gambling frenzy in financial markets. From the March 20, 2020, COVID crash lows of 6,879, the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index broke through 10,000 by July 2020 (not 3 months […]
October 6, 2022 | Remember, USD Love is Cyclical Not Permanent
With most assets dropping in 2022, the US dollar (DXY) has been a rare standout, up 25% against a basket of global trade currencies since December 20, 2020, and 17% year to date. As with most trends, it’s common for humans to expect the status quo to continue indefinitely. Nothing ever does. After bouncing for […]
October 4, 2022 | Fed Intent on Crushing Inflation
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence, is joining us today. She was a former advisor to the Dallas Federal Reserve during the great financial crisis, working with Richard Fisher, and she’s author of the book Fed Up. Here is a direct video link.
October 3, 2022 | No Average Climate
Everywhere today, conversations are being had about what is happening in asset markets and the economy. Many people are in varying degrees of concern, alarm, and distress. Few are yet in a panic. History assures us that they will be. While 60.9% of investors surveyed in September were bearish in sentiment, as shown below courtesy […]
September 27, 2022 | Housing Bubble Deflating
This video presents the US housing dynamics well. Unfortunately, after many similar factors, the Canadian housing excesses are even greater and the downside bigger. Home prices have greatly outpaced average persons disposable income. In the video we will explain what this means for the U.S. Housing market and how home prices corrected during similar housing […]
September 26, 2022 | Private Equity Losses Not Yet Booked
Public pensions have reported a median -7.9% for the fiscal year ended June 30–their biggest loss since 2009 (data published in The Wall Street Journal). This figure reflected the returns for traditional publicly traded investments like stocks and bonds to the end of the second quarter. However, illiquid assets, including private equity funds (PE), represented nearly a […]