ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
August 18, 2023 | Harsh Credit Cycle Has Broad Impacts
Historical context is critical in assessing where we are in this credit, business and employment cycle. Facts demand sobriety, and the discussion below is lucid. This overall strength in U.S. equities is painting a misleading picture as to where the global economy is heading, especially with the Chinese market indicating signs of a slowdown, David […]
August 17, 2023 | Improving and Extending Healthful Years
I am just reading Attia’s latest book, Outlive, and I appreciate the proactive focus on extending health quality rather than just the number of years lived. The good news is that it’s possible to improve our health and fitness as we age. If you’ve been wanting to invest in your health, you probably have so many questions […]
August 16, 2023 | Seeing Truth Through Financial Market Noise
Chief Strategist of QI Research Danielle DiMartino Booth points out that downward revisions in economic data are revealing the truth about the economy far too late and when few are paying attention. As many hail a new bull market, Danielle sees a number of alarming indicators that are outside the focus of the mainstream media […]
August 15, 2023 | Tumbling Property Prices Bring Opportunity
In the second quarter of 2023, distressed commercial real estate volume grew by $8 billion–the largest quarterly increase since the second quarter of 2020. The WSJ reports that Wall Street firms are raising new funds to acquire office buildings, apartments and other troubled commercial real estate at a fraction of the price investors paid a few […]
August 13, 2023 | Danielle on CBC Weekend Business Panel
Danielle was a guest with Linda Ward on the CBC Weekend Business Panel. You can view a video of the segment here.
August 12, 2023 | ECRI: Recession Still Imminent
Independent measurements and insights (i.e., not coming from investment sales firms) are very rare and valuable. You have to know where to look and also want to see. ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan updates on the business and market cycle in the segment below, starting at 3:50 on the play bar. MacroVoices welcome ECRI @businesscycle co-founder Lakshman […]
August 11, 2023 | Oxford Economics: Canada’s Real Estate Downturn “Far From Over”
After past housing bubble peaks in Canada and elsewhere, home prices contracted 25%+ nationally and stayed relatively flat in the following decade or so. That allowed incomes to advance on shelter costs and restore affordability over time. A similar pattern is the base case this time, as well. Much needed. Tony Stillo, director of economics […]
August 10, 2023 | Record Debt Payments and Rising Unemployment
US household debt has surpassed a fresh record of $17.1 trillion. $12 trillion is in mortgages (more than twice the 2006 bubble top), $1.6 trillion in auto loans, and over $1 trillion in credit card debt, all with the highest interest rates in 22 years and rising unemployment. Courtesy of Bloomberg, the chart below shows the […]
August 9, 2023 | No Time For Delusions
Bullish sentiment roared back in the first half of 2023 on the blind belief that low unemployment numbers mean that this time is different and the sharpest monetary tightening in 40 years is not triggering a recession. In reality, changes in unemployment lag behind changes in monetary policy by 12 to 24 months, and mainstream […]
August 8, 2023 | “Normalized” Rates and Record Debt Mean Tough Times
Canadian banks are offering mortgage rates above 6% for 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6-year terms on new purchases (below via Ratehub). Home equity lines of credit are above 7%. These are historically average mortgage rates. The trouble is that after 13 years of unnaturally low rates (2009-2022), people are carrying debt loads far above the long-term […]
August 4, 2023 | Homeownership Becoming a Nightmare for Many
Each week I hear from people who bought Canadian homes over the past few years–whether as primary residences, secondary homes or rentals–and now they realize that they will need to sell. Most are facing capital losses in doing so, but the cost of continued ownership is simply unsustainable. Some recognize that location changes they made […]
August 2, 2023 | Dan Ariely: Don’t Make These Money Mistakes
When it comes to money, because it’s so quantifiable, you’d expect people to make very rational decisions. But they don’t. Because we’re humans, we’re more driven by our evolutionary wiring and our emotions. We make “predictably irrational” decisions, as today’s guest expert would say. Dan Ariely is the James B. Duke Professor of Psychology and […]
August 1, 2023 | Rising Stock Markets Overlook Broad Economic Deterioration
The year-over-year leap in the Fed Funds Rate (inverted on the lower right in orange) is leading ISM new orders down (green line on the lower right). ISM new orders (lower left, in orange, since 2002) lead corporate revenues (green). The chart below, courtesy of Francois Trahan, suggests the trends in motion. Jubilant corporate bond and […]
July 31, 2023 | Lacy Hunt: Incoming Credit Crunch and Recession
This discussion offers an important overview of current financial conditions and what they suggest from here. Dr. Lacy Hunt says a credit crunch is now at hand that will start freezing up the gears of the US economy. Here is a direct video link. Hoisington’s Q2 2023 Quarterly Review and Outlook is available at this link.
July 26, 2023 | Conditions Least Favorable for Equities Since 2007
For those who pay attention to risk/reward dynamics, the prospective compensation for equity risk over Treasury bonds is today the lowest since the market peak in 2007-08 (S&P 500 forward earnings yield minus the ten-year Treasury yield). David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, talks about the lasting effects of Covid-19 stimulus checks on […]
July 25, 2023 | Canadian Equity Market: High Capital Risk Amid Falling Earnings
Canada’s TSX index has rebounded 6%, year-to-date, while its corporate earnings have contracted. As of today, the S&P/TSX Composite is expected to report a Q2 (year-over-year) earnings decline of -20.4%, compared to the estimated (year-over-year) earnings decline of -17.4% on June 30 and the estimated (year-over-year) earnings decline of -12.5% on March 31. See Canada Earnings […]
July 24, 2023 | Moody’s: Financial Conditions Pose Growing Threat To Non-Banks
A new report from Moody’s highlights the clear and present risks posed by “less regulated and transparent parts of the global financial system.” In particular, financial institutions carrying “more leverage, less liquidity and weak risk management will find it harder to navigate the cycle.” But wasn’t this time supposed to be different? See Shadow Banking Stress Lurks, Moody’s warns: Tighter […]
July 21, 2023 | Fat Pitches and Market Cycles
Near-zero interest rates and trillions of asset buying by central banks (QE) enabled twelve years of increasingly deranged financial behaviour between 2011 and 2023. In the process, gambling became an international preoccupation, and investable assets were traded to uneconomically high valuations. A global standout, at the market peak in 2022, the S&P 500 index (shown […]
July 20, 2023 | The Elevator Pitch for Capital Preservation
The challenge is to explain complex systems in simple enough terms that people can comprehend. I attempt to do this every day in finance. But people can be hard to help. We have to want to learn and remember why capital preservation is our dominant goal. Financial enlightenment is made harder because most “experts” in […]
July 19, 2023 | Those Who Overlook History
Like today, soft-landing hopes were all the rage in the summer of 2007 too. The US Fed tightened its overnight rate from 1% in May 2004 to 5.25% by June 2006 and then paused there for 15 months. As the economy slowed and credit stress mounted, the Fed administered a first cut (50bps) in September 2007, and […]
July 18, 2023 | Real Estate Speculators Start to Blink
Nick Gerli, Reventure Consulting Founder and CEO, joins ‘Last Call’ to explain his recent viral tweet claiming AirBnB is seeing declining revenue in several major markets. Here is a direct video link. Also, see Nick’s update on developments in the commercial property sector. Commercial real estate values have already dropped 11% in the last year, with […]
July 15, 2023 | Danielle on CBC Weekend Business Panel
Danielle was a guest on the CBC Weekend Business Panel. Here is a direct video link.
July 14, 2023 | Hard Landing, New Stock Market Lows Ahead
As we enter the second half of 2023, the economy continues chugging along. GDP growth for Q2 is currently estimated at 2.3%, and inflation continues dropping, with the latest June headline CPI just in at 3.0%. Have those warning of recession been wrong? Or will the lag effect result in a bumpier ride for the […]
July 13, 2023 | Housing Inventory to Explode Higher
Home prices in the US peaked a year ago in June. Since then, transactions have noticeably cooled as mortgage rates have skyrocketed. And while prices have declined in a number of markets nationwide, the correction so far has been quite mild. Are the housing bears wrong? Or are things going to get notably worse from […]
July 13, 2023 | Central Banks Holding The Hand Brake
The June US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at a 3% annualized rate, down from the pandemic-inflamed peak of 9.1% a year ago. FOMC chair Powell has said that ‘super-core’ services ex-shelter (which excludes food, energy, rent and used car prices) is his preferred inflation gauge, and (as shown below) it came in at […]