ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
October 27, 2023 | Canadian Recession is Here
David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research and Ed Devlin, founder of Devlin Capital, senior fellow at C.D. Howe Institute and former head of Canadian portfolio management at PIMCO, join BNN Bloomberg to discuss their economic outlook. They say that even as many believe a soft landing is still accomplishable, there are some metrics […]
October 26, 2023 | Luxury Losing Its Luster
What about wealthy people not being hurt by higher debt payments? Nonsense, as usual! As financial markets tumble, luxury spending follows. The slowdown is ubiquitous, folks. CNBC’s Robert Frank reports on spending pull backs from the luxury consumer and what it could be signaling for the economy at large. Here is a direct video link. Bank […]
October 25, 2023 | A Case of Overkill
It is not just rapid hikes in the overnight rate (525 basis points in 18 months by the US Fed and 475 basis points in Canada), which are contracting credit and slowing spending through the real economy. The drop in equity and bond prices, along with the jump in fossil fuel costs and the US […]
October 24, 2023 | Phase Change Disruption in Energy, Transport and Food
The Saudis see where the puck is going. Does Canada? Tony Seba updates on Phase Change Disruptions of Energy, Transportation, Food & Implications for Humanity. Here is a direct audio link.
October 23, 2023 | Real Estate Getting a Comeuppance
Pops and financial wipeouts are the historical norm when a billowing housing bubble meets dramatically higher interest rates. On the upside, the pendulum is finally moving in favour of renters and future buyers. Buying housing has rarely been this unattractive relative to renting. The chart below shows that the average new US mortgage payment is […]
October 20, 2023 | Bonds Offer Capital Defence, Equities Do Not
Unlike bonds, equities offer no return of principal dates nor contractually prescribed income payments. Contrary to the investment sales hype bombarding us daily, dividend-paying equities are not capital ‘defensive.’ Defensive for whom, we should ask. From present valuation levels, equities are priced to underperform government bonds by 6.5% annualized over the next ten years […]
October 19, 2023 | Liquidation Mode
Welcome asset price deflation: motivated sellers are listing everything, everywhere, all at once. And this is with unemployment just starting to rise. Wait for it…
October 18, 2023 | Increasing The Primary Residence Housing Stock
All the talk about needing to deflate the cost of housing is finally getting serious. This week, B.C.’s NDP government tabled the Short-Term Rental Accommodations Act that, if passed, will ban most short-term rentals that aren’t within an operator’s principal residence. Effective May 1, the new restriction would apply in municipalities with a population of […]
October 17, 2023 | Pandemic Buyers Struggling To Unload Properties
Leverage on leverage on leverage, who would have thought? John Fincham, broker at Re/Max Parry Sound Muskoka Realty, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the Ontario cottage market. He says that many cottage owners who bought during the pandemic are now struggling to unload those properties. And as interest rates drive down prices he says cottages […]
October 16, 2023 | Small Caps Leading Lower
The economically-sensitive Russell 2000 stock index (RUT) has given back all of its early 2023 rebound and is now negative year to date, -29% from its cycle peak in October 2021 and just 1% higher than where it was in August 2018. The more concentrated US small-cap 600 index (SML in green below since April […]
October 13, 2023 | Resisting Financial Sentinels
Investment banks are having a rough year. Sharply higher interest rates are taking a toll. Falling asset prices since 2021 have reduced fees tied to assets under management just as bad debts are rising. Underwriting fees are not helping: year-to-date investment banks have sold 22% fewer Initial public offerings (IPOs) to the public than in 2022, and […]
October 12, 2023 | Hot Homeowner Accessory: Two Homes in One
More and more people are starting to understand that homes can be very expensive consumption items and ways to make them more efficient/lower per capita living costs are savvy. Secondary dwellings in primary residences are one way to do this. Whether to share shelter costs with friends, extended family, or caregivers or to generate rental […]
October 11, 2023 | Buying Power Has Halved, Do The Math
Home listings and price reductions are popping up like measles. You can see this by signing into Zillow (or many other sites). Meanwhile, offers are increasingly scarce, and a quick look at any mortgage calculator shows why. When Canadian variable rate mortgages were available at 1.65% from 2020 to early 2022, one was enabled to buy a $750,000 property […]
October 10, 2023 | Housing-Led Downturn To Rival 2008
A decade of levered fiscal and monetary incentives has enabled yet another epic capital misallocation cycle. Now, we are in the takeback period once more. Heads up. Housing-led economic downturns have historically been the most severe, and the price of homes (US in purple below since 1996) enters this downcycle more elevated relative to income […]
October 9, 2023 | Cooling Wage Growth and Loss of Full Time Jobs Confirm Weakening Economy
Cooling Wage Growth Easing Inflation Worries — DiMartino Booth Joins Charles Payne of FBN. Here is a direct video link.
October 6, 2023 | Bond Market Tightens Noose on Highly Indebted Economy
Today, we have news that the Canadian and US economies are estimated to have created more jobs in September than forecast. Still, hourly earnings moved down, and unemployment rates in both countries have moved above cycle lows. It is helpful to remember that unemployment is a lagging indicator, with the bulk of upward moves happening […]
October 4, 2023 | Yield Curve Steepening Signals More Pain for Stocks, Reeal Estate and Economy
Bond analyst Alf Pecatiello warns that over the last 3 months, US bond markets have been in an aggressive and prolonged period of bear steepening of the yield curve. History shows if left unchecked, this steepening is likely to cause serious damage to equity markets and the economy. Here is a direct video link. As shown […]
October 3, 2023 | Harsh New Reality for Homeowners as Listings Rise and Buyer-Pool Shrinks
In its 2023 Financial System Review, The Bank of Canada notes growing concern about the ability of households to service their debt, with mortgage holders facing payment increases of up to 40%. Compounding the issue is the fact house prices are falling and reducing the amount of equity owners have: Higher interest rates have also contributed to […]
October 2, 2023 | Danielle on CBC Weekend Business Panel
Danielle was a guest with Almer Kim and Dennis Mitchell on CBC’s Weekend Business Panel. You can view a video clip of the segment here.
October 2, 2023 | Oh Canada
When bank economists get bearish, you know that data looks pretty dour. Kudos to Robert for candour in this interview. Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, joins BNN Bloomberg with his perspective on Canada’s July GDP data, which Kavcic says was flat. He says all told, assuming growth remains modest in September as […]
October 1, 2023 | Capitalizing on Recessions and Financial Cycles
Worthwhile big-picture discussion… Experience financial expert Gary Shilling’s insights like never before in this engrossing video titled “Gary Shilling On A Violent Stock Collapse Dead Ahead.” Shilling, known for his astute market predictions, discusses the impending dangers of a violent stock market collapse, offering invaluable advice for both seasoned and aspiring investors. Here is a direct […]
September 30, 2023 | China’s Great Slowdown and Real Estate Crisis
Secular mean reversion in the world’s second-largest economy and largest consumer of global commodities has far-reaching implications for all of us. Kyle Bass, Hayman Capital Management founder and CIO, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the state of U.S.-China relations amid rising tensions, China’s economic woes and real estate crisis, and more. Here is a direct video […]
September 29, 2023 | Canadian Recession “Earlier and Harder”
Unfortunately, a decade of loose money and misallocated capital has set Canada up for a period of hard return. David Rosenberg, President and Chief Economist & Strategist of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., talks with Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn about how Canada will get a recession ‘earlier and harder’. Here is a direct video link. […]
September 28, 2023 | China’s Housing Bust Spreads
Shares in the Chinese property firm Evergrande have fallen as problems in the country’s struggling housing market deepen – affecting the wider economy. Its mainland unit Hengda Real Estate has defaulted on 4bn yuan (£449m; $547m) of debt, it revealed on Monday. The BBC’s Analysis Editor Ros Atkins examines the background to the current crisis. […]
September 27, 2023 | Financial Headwinds Intensify as Cash Dwindles and Debt Costs Leap
Trillions in emergency government handouts have been spent. Eighty percent of Americans now have less cash than when the Pandemic began. Only the wealthiest 20% of Americans still have some excess Pandemic savings, and that is expected to be fully consumed by the end of this month. All income groups have seen their balances decline in […]