ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
October 12, 2023 | Hot Homeowner Accessory: Two Homes in One
More and more people are starting to understand that homes can be very expensive consumption items and ways to make them more efficient/lower per capita living costs are savvy. Secondary dwellings in primary residences are one way to do this. Whether to share shelter costs with friends, extended family, or caregivers or to generate rental […]
October 11, 2023 | Buying Power Has Halved, Do The Math
Home listings and price reductions are popping up like measles. You can see this by signing into Zillow (or many other sites). Meanwhile, offers are increasingly scarce, and a quick look at any mortgage calculator shows why. When Canadian variable rate mortgages were available at 1.65% from 2020 to early 2022, one was enabled to buy a $750,000 property […]
October 10, 2023 | Housing-Led Downturn To Rival 2008
A decade of levered fiscal and monetary incentives has enabled yet another epic capital misallocation cycle. Now, we are in the takeback period once more. Heads up. Housing-led economic downturns have historically been the most severe, and the price of homes (US in purple below since 1996) enters this downcycle more elevated relative to income […]
October 9, 2023 | Cooling Wage Growth and Loss of Full Time Jobs Confirm Weakening Economy
Cooling Wage Growth Easing Inflation Worries — DiMartino Booth Joins Charles Payne of FBN. Here is a direct video link.
October 6, 2023 | Bond Market Tightens Noose on Highly Indebted Economy
Today, we have news that the Canadian and US economies are estimated to have created more jobs in September than forecast. Still, hourly earnings moved down, and unemployment rates in both countries have moved above cycle lows. It is helpful to remember that unemployment is a lagging indicator, with the bulk of upward moves happening […]
October 4, 2023 | Yield Curve Steepening Signals More Pain for Stocks, Reeal Estate and Economy
Bond analyst Alf Pecatiello warns that over the last 3 months, US bond markets have been in an aggressive and prolonged period of bear steepening of the yield curve. History shows if left unchecked, this steepening is likely to cause serious damage to equity markets and the economy. Here is a direct video link. As shown […]
October 3, 2023 | Harsh New Reality for Homeowners as Listings Rise and Buyer-Pool Shrinks
In its 2023 Financial System Review, The Bank of Canada notes growing concern about the ability of households to service their debt, with mortgage holders facing payment increases of up to 40%. Compounding the issue is the fact house prices are falling and reducing the amount of equity owners have: Higher interest rates have also contributed to […]
October 2, 2023 | Danielle on CBC Weekend Business Panel
Danielle was a guest with Almer Kim and Dennis Mitchell on CBC’s Weekend Business Panel. You can view a video clip of the segment here.
October 2, 2023 | Oh Canada
When bank economists get bearish, you know that data looks pretty dour. Kudos to Robert for candour in this interview. Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, joins BNN Bloomberg with his perspective on Canada’s July GDP data, which Kavcic says was flat. He says all told, assuming growth remains modest in September as […]
October 1, 2023 | Capitalizing on Recessions and Financial Cycles
Worthwhile big-picture discussion… Experience financial expert Gary Shilling’s insights like never before in this engrossing video titled “Gary Shilling On A Violent Stock Collapse Dead Ahead.” Shilling, known for his astute market predictions, discusses the impending dangers of a violent stock market collapse, offering invaluable advice for both seasoned and aspiring investors. Here is a direct […]
September 30, 2023 | China’s Great Slowdown and Real Estate Crisis
Secular mean reversion in the world’s second-largest economy and largest consumer of global commodities has far-reaching implications for all of us. Kyle Bass, Hayman Capital Management founder and CIO, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the state of U.S.-China relations amid rising tensions, China’s economic woes and real estate crisis, and more. Here is a direct video […]
September 29, 2023 | Canadian Recession “Earlier and Harder”
Unfortunately, a decade of loose money and misallocated capital has set Canada up for a period of hard return. David Rosenberg, President and Chief Economist & Strategist of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., talks with Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn about how Canada will get a recession ‘earlier and harder’. Here is a direct video link. […]
September 28, 2023 | China’s Housing Bust Spreads
Shares in the Chinese property firm Evergrande have fallen as problems in the country’s struggling housing market deepen – affecting the wider economy. Its mainland unit Hengda Real Estate has defaulted on 4bn yuan (£449m; $547m) of debt, it revealed on Monday. The BBC’s Analysis Editor Ros Atkins examines the background to the current crisis. […]
September 27, 2023 | Financial Headwinds Intensify as Cash Dwindles and Debt Costs Leap
Trillions in emergency government handouts have been spent. Eighty percent of Americans now have less cash than when the Pandemic began. Only the wealthiest 20% of Americans still have some excess Pandemic savings, and that is expected to be fully consumed by the end of this month. All income groups have seen their balances decline in […]
September 26, 2023 | Jeremy Grantham “Bubble Historian”
The below podcast with Grantham is nearly two hours long and broad in scope. Worth the time, IMHO. For those with less patience, you can read some key takeaways in 10 quotes from the interview. Also, this 2-minute TikTok reel offers a taste. @downtownjbrown Is This a Real Estate Bubble? @The Compound THe Compound and Friends […]
September 25, 2023 | McGill Housing Study: “Staggering Impact of Short Term Rentals”
Greater restrictions around short-term rental properties seems inevitable. A McGill University professor has found some eyebrow-raising numbers regarding short-term rentals in B.C. …“The report underscores the need for the Province of B.C. to implement a province-wide short-term rental registry and platform accountability measures to save tenants billions in rent and address housing supply, attainability, and […]
September 23, 2023 | Unaffordable Homes and Cars
A new report from RATESDOTCA found that Canadians who took a five-year insured $500,000 variable-rate mortgage in the low-interest days of 2021 would be paying $23,579 more in cumulative interests by September 2023 compared to a fixed-rate mortgage option. See Variable rate mortgage holders on the hook for thousands in interest: The figure represents 63 per cent in […]
September 22, 2023 | Stocks Tank on Fed’s ‘Hawkish’ Pause
Excellent overview of key data in this segment. Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her views on the September meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). Filmed on September 20, shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference. Here is a direct video link.
September 21, 2023 | Falling Incomes and Forced Home Sales
Lucid insights on macro conditions and the housing cycle in this segment. Homeowners in America have run out of money in 2023, which could spark a wave of panic selling that will cause inventory to surge. Here is a direct video link.
September 20, 2023 | What This $100 Billion Ghost City Says About China’s Realty Crisis
Country Garden, once seen as one of China’s most stable property developers, is now struggling financially, leaving the future of unfinished megadevelopments like Malaysia’s Forest City in doubt. Here’s how overbuilding, and a streak of bad luck, have left China’s real-estate developers in the red. Here is a direct video link. This entry was posted
September 19, 2023 | BOC: Elevated Investor Ownership Magnifies Real Estate Downside
In a September 8th update entitled, Indicators of Financial Vulnerabilities, the Bank of Canada (BOC) notes that in Q1 2023, so-called investors owned 30 percent of mortgaged homes in Canada, up from 20 percent before the pandemic. See, Investors took a bigger chunk of the housing market during the pandemic, data shows. In the first quarter […]
September 18, 2023 | Mind The Credit Cycle
Bank lending is contracting across world economies. The percentage of US banks tightening their credit to large and medium firms (below since 1990 via Tier 1 Alpha) now above 40%–was only seen during the 2020 pandemic, the 2008 financial crisis, the 2001 Dotcom bust, and the 1990-91 recession. As higher interest rates freeze existing home […]
September 14, 2023 | Wall Street’s Soft-Landing Delusion and What Really Comes Next!
For those who like detail, Francois Trahan of Trahan Research offers a cogent macro assessment in his latest video update (1-hour run time): “Wall Street’s Soft-landing Delusion and What Really Comes Next!” You can watch it at this direct video link.
September 13, 2023 | More and More Hard Data
Debt payments consume an impossible amount of household income, and the problem is global. Across ten large Canadian cities, mortgage payments alone are eating up about 59% of household earnings, based on mortgages amortized over 25 years. This is with 70% of Canadian mortgages still paying fixed payments based on rates less than 3%. With […]
September 12, 2023 | Central Banks Offer No Free Lunch
The San Fransisco Federal Reserve published its latest economic letter last week, entitled Does Monetary Policy Have Long-Run Effects? The conclusions are clear: loose monetary policy does not raise long-run economic potential while the eventual tightening of policy reduces economic output for a decade and beyond. We have entered the payback decade: Analyzing cross-country data for […]