ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
December 24, 2024 | Grantham on the Baby Bust
It is no secret that population dynamics significantly impact global stability. But what’s really behind today’s shifting global birth trends, the increased need for medically-assisted pregnancy, and the changing age demographics of industrialized nations? Furthermore, what are the implications of these shifts for future economic security? Today, Nate is joined by investment strategist Jeremy Grantham […]
December 20, 2024 | Fed’s Frayed Nerves Amid Inflation Fears and Rising Unemployment
There are many clear-eyed insights in this segment. Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research and former Federal Reserve insider, joins the Julia La Roche Show for an in-person interview to discuss why she sees “frayed nerves” at the Federal Reserve about the incoming Trump administration. In this wide-ranging conversation, DiMartino Booth […]
December 19, 2024 | TM: Bubbles End Badly
As 2024 draws to a close, the mood on Wall Street is very jolly. Stocks are back to trading near all-time highs. Positive sentiment — be it among investors, businesses or consumers — is suddenly spiking. Is such exuberance merited? Should we expect the market’s good times to continue rolling in 2025? Or, is the […]
December 18, 2024 | Yields and the Loonie Dive While Stock Markets Levitate
Canada’s economy is slumping, along with support for the federal government. So far, the Bank of Canada says it plans to ease policy rates at a slower pace in 2025. The Treasury market is not convinced. Through fits and starts, government bond prices have continued to rise on safety-seeking inflows (yields in a downtrend). The […]
December 17, 2024 | Balance Sheet Repair Takes Years
Today on the Jay Martin Show, Jay sits down with Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Intelligence and author of Fed Up. the pair dissect critical economic and geopolitical trends shaping today’s markets. They explore the historic overvaluation of the stock market, rising consumer debt, and the hidden vulnerabilities in the gig economy. Danielle offers […]
December 16, 2024 | Optimists Say Don’t Worry About Bubbles, That’s Bad Advice
A house on our street recently sold for $8 million to a buyer in his early 40s. Our mutual tradesperson had the scoop: the guy made his money in Bitcoin. This is his summer house; he lives in Hawaii. On closing, he installed lifts in the garage, stacked them with exotic cars, and put a […]
December 12, 2024 | Human Nature is Prone to Self-Harm in Financial Bubbles
Twenty-four years ago, I was studying to become a financial analyst while working at a stock brokerage. Equity markets and animal spirits were soaring; the Nasdaq doubled in 1999 alone. Nortel was Canada’s pride and joy, accounting for over a third of Canada’s TSX stock index. In September 2000, Nortel was trading at C$124 a […]
December 11, 2024 | Florida’s ‘Condo Cliff’
I regularly hear about people thinking of selling their Florida real estate due to escalating costs. An aged population increasingly feels the same way, and the weak loonie is a final catalyst for many Canadians. Who will be willing to buy from all those looking to sell? After the deadly Florida condominium collapse in Surfside […]
December 10, 2024 | Market Snakes Follow Ladders
Canada’s Venture Composite Index (a basket of economically sensitive micro-cap companies, 44% weighted in materials, 30% information technology, 15.74% in energy, 3.5% health care, 2.48% financials, 1.85% industrials, .58% communication services, and .32% consumer discretionary) appears to concur with former BoC head Stephen Poloz’s recessionary assessment. When the real economy expands, rising demand for commodities […]
December 9, 2024 | Cash Crunch Set to Intensify in 2025
Some 1.2 million Canadian mortgages are set to renew in 2025. In 2021, those taken out with 3—to 5-year terms had an average interest rate of 2.05%. Today, even after 125 basis points of overnight rate cuts from the Bank of Canada, the average fixed rate on offer with a 20% downpayment is 4.39 to […]
December 8, 2024 | Is Trump Right about the Canadian Border? | About That
U.S. president-elect Donald Trump and his incoming border czar claim their country’s northern border with Canada is a threat to national security. Andrew Chang breaks down the basis of the claims about drugs and illegal migrants streaming into the country from Canada, and to what extent they’re true. Here is a direct video link.
December 6, 2024 | Caught Between Rising Unemployment and a High Cost of Living
This morning, we learned that Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November, the highest since September 2021 and January 2017. It is now up 200 basis points (bps) from the cycle low of 4.8% in June 2022 and has never increased this much outside of a recession. Of the 50,000 new jobs created, 45,000 […]
December 5, 2024 | The Psychology of Money and Happiness
There are many wise, helpful insights in this discussion. In this episode, my guest is Morgan Housel, an expert in private wealth generation and management and author of the bestselling book The Psychology of Money. We discuss how desiring, pursuing, saving, and spending money impact our psychology and perception of wealth. We explore why people […]
December 4, 2024 | Thoughtful Investments Are The Only Ones Worth Making
The Canadian government’s plan to constrain population growth by reducing immigration over the next few years is designed to relieve demand pressure on key services like housing, education and health care. That’s needed. The downsides are that Canada’s economic growth will weaken, and the government will collect less revenue. RBC economists estimate the impact to be about […]
December 3, 2024 | The Unbearable Weight of Home Prices
About 15 million, or 37% of Canada’s 40 million people, live in the Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal areas, three of the top seven least affordable cities in America and Canada. Over 25% live in the two least affordable cities—Vancouver and Toronto—where the average sale price in 2024 was 12.7x and 10.7x the median household incomes […]
December 2, 2024 | Backward Looking Recession Indicators
Is the U.S. in the heat of a recession right now? A recent jump in bankruptcies resembles that of the Great Financial Crisis, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, tells Jeremy Szafron, Kitco News anchor, on the sidelines of the New Orleans Investment Conference. Booth discusses a range of topics, including […]
November 29, 2024 | Record Valuations and Most Bulls Since 1987
The S&P 500 (26% concentrated in the five most expensive tech companies) is trading at 38x smoothed 10-year earnings, just marginally below the all-time high of 43x briefly seen at the 2000 tech bubble top and much higher than the previous bubble top in 1929 (Shiller PE ratio below since 1870). But then, most are […]
November 28, 2024 | Wong: Economy Not Strong, Unemployment Likely to Surge
About that Trump trade… The last time today’s expert was on the program back in July, she was concerned about rising unemployment. Is she still as worried about it as we prepare to enter a new year with a new Administration taking over? To find out, we have the good fortune to talk today with […]
November 26, 2024 | The Hard Math of Election Promises
2024 was about election promises. 2025 will be about the math of delivering. This segment looks at tariffs, taxes and spending cuts. With hedge fund manager Scott Bessent poised to be the next U.S. Treasury Secretary under the incoming Trump administration, ambitious plans are emerging to slash the national deficit-to-GDP ratio. But can they succeed? […]
November 25, 2024 | About That: Why is the Loonie So Low?
The Canadian dollar is now at its lowest point since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, and analysts predict it could fall below 70 cents US in the coming months. Andrew Chang explains why the dollar’s value has fallen so much and the impact it could have on everything from travel plans to interest rates […]
November 22, 2024 | Bird’s Eye View of Price and Risk
This week, we learned that the US index of leading economic indicators (Conference Board LEI) contracted to 99.5 in October—the 32nd consecutive month of contraction and the longest since at least 1957 (all shown below courtesy of The Daily Shot). The only LEI items that expanded in October were stock (green) and credit (pink) prices. […]
November 20, 2024 | Even Higher Hopes
The S&P 500 is on track for its biggest election-year gain in 88 years. Still, according to the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey, the share of US consumers expecting stocks to rise further over the next 12 months has doubled over the last year to the highest percentage since this question was first asked […]
November 19, 2024 | Euphoria Bounces Back
Since stock markets hit a two-year low last October, prices reflated on bets that artificial intelligence and central bank easing could solve spreading insolvency. Then came this month’s Republican sweep in the US election, and the crowd ordered another round. Risky assets went parabolic before selling off last week—the S&P 500 and Canada’s TSX remain […]
November 18, 2024 | Danielle on CBC Weekend Business Panel
Here is a direct video link.
November 13, 2024 | Higher Rates Tend to be Self-Correcting
With a price of more than 5x book value (lower right), U.S. stocks are the most overvalued since the tech-mania top in March 2020. At 3x price-to-sales (lower left), the recent euphoria has returned to the fall 2021 level and significantly overshot the 2000 top. As the S&P 500 has rebounded sharply over the past […]