ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
March 10, 2026 | Fuel Costs Tax Everyone
Last week’s near 35% spike in the price of oil (WTIC) was the biggest gain in futures trading history, dating back to 1983 (shown below, courtesy of Bespoke Investment Group). After closing at $90.90 a barrel on Friday, the price rose to $119.48 intraday yesterday, then slumped 15% to $80 this afternoon. That’s still up 47% […]
March 6, 2026 | Diversify This
The investment sales world loves to talk about the defensive benefit of holding different equity sectors and global markets. The pitch is that there’s always a bull market somewhere, so we can always-be-buying risk-on products. The US stock market is heavily concentrated (39%) in the top 10 most expensive companies today (dark blue bar below). […]
March 4, 2026 | Blocked Exits Intensify The Urge To Get Out
After the 2008 financial crisis, more than a decade of zero-interest-rate policies drove an explosion in private credit products and funds that were initially marketed to institutions and pensions under the oxymoron of safe ‘high-yield’. Then, from March 2022 to May 2023, a record succession of central bank rate hikes took the US Fed rate […]
March 3, 2026 | Shocks are Part of life; Sentiment Coming into Them Matters
Macro shocks are a constant throughout time. The market impact is often dramatic in the short-term. Longer-term, outcomes vary depending on the level of optimism that was priced in when the shock hits. Coming into 2026, most asset markets were exhibiting excessive optimism -pricing the best of all possible outcomes. Just one example: the S&P […]
February 26, 2026 | Private Equity’s Dry Spell Worse Than 2008 Crisis
Private equity returned fewer profits to investors for a fourth straight year as the industry sat on $3.8 trillion of unsold assets and struggled to raise money for new funds. Distributions as a percentage of net asset value remained at 14% last year — the second-lowest level since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis, […]
February 25, 2026 | Price Discovery Brutal Awakening from ‘Easy Money’ Era
From 2009 to 2022, alternative and private lenders multiplied as traditional banks tightened underwriting standards and yield-starved investors looked beyond conventional options. As usual, ‘easy money’ led to overconfident, under-analyzed allocation decisions across many asset classes at once. Real estate busts tend to be slow-moving, and then suddenly, all at once. Eight years after the […]
February 23, 2026 | CIBC: Housing Downturn Worse Than Thought and Bad News For Economy
A Bank of Canada study estimated that for every dollar increase in home values, spending rose by 5.7 cents. A New Zealand study found that the housing wealth effect had an even greater impact in reducing spending when home prices were falling than when they were rising. Prices in Canada have fallen more than 20% […]
February 19, 2026 | Housing and Recessions
The benchmark Canadian home resale price has fallen more than 21% in nominal terms (25-30% in real terms) from the 2022 cycle peak (shown below since 2020). But new home prices have fallen just 8% from the peak nationwide because builders have used incentives, including mortgage rate buydowns, to avoid top-line price cuts. More price cuts […]
February 18, 2026 | Deflating Housing Bubble is a Major Macro Force in 2026
Residential real estate is the most widely owned and highly leveraged asset class for households. For these reasons, housing cycles have outsized effects on consumer confidence, spending, the economy and financial markets. The deflating housing bubble will remain a major macroeconomic force in 2026. The discussion below is worth a listen. Demand for US homes […]
February 17, 2026 | Gale-Force Winds Will Test Fair-Weather Sailors
Global equities began the year near record highs, supported partly by continued enthusiasm around Artificial Intelligence (AI) investment and expectations of policy easing. However, February has seen more uneven performance: Technology shares have led the weakness as investors reassess how AI translates into corporate profits, GDP, jobs, and security/insecurity. See, AI Fears Drive Volatility, Triggering Declines […]
February 11, 2026 | Financial Stress is Driving Rents and Home Prices Down, at Last
As I have noted many times, historically, a maximum of 3x household income has been considered the limit of what is considered “affordable” for homes. In Canada, with a median household income of 84k, this would mean homes priced at no more than $252,000. Today, the national average home sale price is $660k (down from […]
February 10, 2026 | Risk Trade Poised To Follow Crypto’s Lead
Stocks, commodities, junk bonds, precious metals, and crypto assets all leapt together into late 2025; now, Bitcoin, the crypto leader, is down 44% since October, and the broader crypto market has vaporized trillions in notional value while billions flow out of crypto-based Exchange Traded Funds. US stocks trading at all-time bubble-high valuations (S&P 500 composite […]
February 9, 2026 | Spring Listings Start Early in 2026
The spring listing wave traditionally starts at the end of February, but supply is already off to a strong start in 2026. Canadian housing inventory rose in January, with listings higher across most regions, as prices declined (home price index for the 5 largest urban centers shown below for December and January). See Supply surge keeps […]
February 4, 2026 | Canada’s Economy is ‘On Life Support’
We should all work and hope for new trade relationships, new business lines and lots of innovation to bring seen and unforeseen solutions. But in the here and now, Canada is in a complacency-earned rough patch. Eyes wide open. Canada’s private-sector activity remained soft in January, with the S&P Global Canada Composite PMI coming in at 46.4, […]
February 3, 2026 | Home Prices are Round-Tripping
Home price deflation is underway in many high-population centers in Canada and America, see Housing Market Is Shifting Back Toward an Advantage for Buyers on the front page of yesterday’s Wall Street Journal: “The proliferation of discounts and incentives offers the latest evidence that the housing market is tilting back in the buyer’s favour.” The US housing […]
February 2, 2026 | Data Center Demand Doesn’t Add Up
Mind the hype, always… Utilities analysts are having a moment as the energy sector gets a boost from AI. With an extra 94 gigawatts forecast to be needed by 2030 to power all these data centers, energy investment has become a hot play as investors take a “picks and shovels” approach. But one long-time utilities […]
January 30, 2026 | Mindless Doesn’t End Well
The content of this discussion is clear-eyed and important. Each of us must decide how to allocate our savings given the circumstances we are living through. Mindless following can appear to be progress until suddenly the bill comes due. Has the rally in silver gone so far now that the metal’s price action is actually […]
January 29, 2026 | Frozen Housing Markets Hurting Jobs and Economic Activity
Housing mean reversion is hurting jobs and economic activity. A building industry association says 100-thousand jobs in construction and related sectors are at risk. As Alan Carter reports, the housing downturn could erase $20 billion for Ontario’s economy. Here is a direct video link. Home markets are floundering in many US cities, too. The US National […]
January 28, 2026 | Humanity, AI and Financial Markets
Cue the nervous laughter when watching the segment below. Financial markets have already become so complex and algorithm-driven that even trained experts are struggling to comprehend the moving parts. The timeless adage that we should only invest in what we understand is being largely ignored. Meanwhile, those who don’t even know the questions to ask […]
January 27, 2026 | Why Private Credit Wants You to Buy In
Our month-end letter for January discusses the links between private equity, private credit and elevated financial risks for the rest of us. The segment below offers a primer. Opacity and complexity in financial products often cloak elevated risk and even deceit. Private credit, a form of lending by non-bank financial institutions to businesses outside of […]
January 26, 2026 | The Compounding Costs of Sanctioned Gambling
Empirical research suggests that expanded gambling access—particularly low-friction, online sports betting—has been associated with measurable increases in consumer financial distress, including higher bankruptcy filings in U.S. states following legalization. The evidence is strongest where gambling becomes more accessible and continuous, rather than episodic (e.g., mobile wagering versus destination casinos). At the individual level, a robust […]
January 23, 2026 | Grantham Reflects on Six Decades of Investing
Far-reaching, worthwhile discussion in this segment. On episode 226 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Jeremy Grantham to discuss: stock market bubbles, the ups and downs of managing money, how the wealth divide has grown so wide, the future of clean energy tech, and much more! Here […]
January 22, 2026 | Investor Emotional Cycle is Alive and Well
Madness and mayhem are the order of the day, while consumer and business sentiment are dour, and for-sale signs are popping up like measles. Meanwhile, equity markets are priced for nirvana, and participants are the most long of all time. Households and nonprofit organizations entered 2026 with a record near half of their financial assets […]
January 20, 2026 | Grantham Sees an AI Bubble — and a Familiar Ending
For more than four decades, Jeremy Grantham has been one of the most contrarian voices in global investing. The co-founder of Boston-based asset manager GMO, he built his reputation warning about bubbles before they burst, from Japanese equities in the late 1980s to US tech stocks in 2000 and housing in the run-up to the […]
January 19, 2026 | The History of Money
Extremely interesting historical perspective in this discussion; worth a listen. David McWilliams (The History of Money: A Story of Humanity) is a journalist, writer, and economist. David joins the Armchair Expert to discuss having an unusually calm Irish family upbringing, being practically prescribed to study economics, and the impact that his father being screwed by […]