ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
April 16, 2026 | Stocks Betting This Time is Different
Expectations for a resolution of blockages in the Strait of Hormuz have driven a risk-on rebound over the past 2 weeks. Since 1928, this is the first time the S&P has made new all-time highs within 11 days of falling 5-10% (Bespoke). Under the hood, breadth was extremely weak, with just 12 companies making new […]
April 15, 2026 | Canadian Bank Regulator Cites Rising Loan Defaults as Number One Risk
As of January 2026, 3.1 million Canadian mortgages, or 52 percent of all outstanding, were due to renew by the end of 2027, according to the latest report from the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI). Of these renewals, 1.3 million are fixed-rate mortgages or variable-rate mortgages with fixed payments that will be […]
April 14, 2026 | U.S. Oil Blockade| About That
President Donald Trump announced the United States would apply its own blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for Iran’s de facto shutdown, which is now stretching into its seventh week. But, as Andrew Chang explains, responding this way to Iran’s control of 20 per cent of the world’s energy supply could pose several […]
April 10, 2026 | It’s The Economy…
US Consumer sentiment sank about 11% this month, extending a decline that began with the start of the Iran conflict, and is currently about 9% below a year ago. Demographic groups across age, income, and political party all posted setbacks in sentiment, as did every component of the index, reflecting the widespread nature of this […]
April 8, 2026 | Treasuries Gain on Rising Recession Odds
Markets are celebrating that the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire amid ongoing negotiations. So far, the parties seem worlds apart, especially on issues like Iran continuing its nuclear program. But we all hope for a sane and rapid end to the carnage. Fossil fuel prices are down sharply, and stocks are […]
April 7, 2026 | We Can Learn From Financial Hardship
For more than two decades, I have been warning individuals about the heightened risk and stress associated with high debt levels and financial bubbles. Unfortunately, many older people are financially uninformed and don’t set a good example for younger people. Worse, many parents and grandparents have encouraged and enabled young people to become heavily indebted. […]
April 2, 2026 | All Gas, No Brakes
For more than a decade, the hottest asset class on Wall Street was private credit and private equity funds, where assets held by the funds rarely changed hands and ‘estimated’ values were steadily marked higher by the managers. Now, an increasing number of investors are trying to exit but finding they can’t. Cliffwater is one […]
April 1, 2026 | Bouncing into April?
Yesterday marked the best stock market bounce at the end of a quarter since September 2008. Far from an all-clear sign, bounces like that are most common during bear markets (shown below, courtesy of Bespoke). Mean reversion has made some progress in the sell-off to date, but Berkshire Hathaway is not parting with its cash […]
March 30, 2026 | Oil-Shock Meets Asset Price Deflation
Canada’s economy has generated no economic growth in five months and no job growth in eight months. Meanwhile, the household wealth effect is in reverse, with home sale prices nationally down 20% over the past 4 years and the stock market negative year-to-date. The S&P 500 and Canada’s TSX are both off more than 7% […]
March 27, 2026 | Private Equity Has Leveraged Insurance Companies’ Balance Sheets
Over the past decade, private equity has leveraged insurance companies’ balance sheets, increasing financial risk for all of us. Read An Open Letter to Speaker Johnson. The essay goes into specific numbers. Here are some of the big picture implications: When a PE firm raises a fund, the capital has a defined life. Ten years, maybe twelve. […]
March 26, 2026 | Canadian Real Estate Crash Has Staying Power
BMO Capital Markets is warning that Canadian home prices haven’t moved in nearly a decade, once adjusted for inflation, and are now in the midst of the largest correction since the 90s. Unfortunately, years of prices leaping far beyond increases in household income have set Canada up for a painful payback period, now in year […]
March 25, 2026 | What If The Risk-On Cycle Has Topped
The consensus remains bullish on inflationary expectations, including precious metals, stocks and oil. But then, recency bias is the typical human response. It’s worth considering that cycle peaks could be behind us. Gold pared dramatic losses as US President Donald Trump postponed military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure for a five-day period after what he described […]
March 24, 2026 | Powell Remarks on Paul Volcker Integrity Award
I don’t know Jerome Powell and have no idea whether he is, or will be judged by history as doing the right things in line with his public duty. But at a time when integrity and selflessness in public office seem to be in short supply, this speech is worth a listen. At the American […]
March 23, 2026 | Calming Inflationary Fears is Job Number One
Crypto bounced alongside fossil fuel prices since the Iran war broke out on February 28 — though it’s still down 43% since October. Other global markets generally plunged along with metal prices (shown below, courtesy of The Daily Shot). US and Canadian government bonds held up second best, with Canada’s 5-year Treasury price dropping 2.4% […]
March 19, 2026 | Bank of Canada Admits It Can’t ‘Save’ Bubbles
The Bank of Canada press conference yesterday finally admitted facts about Canada’s housing market: “The housing market is looking weaker, and weaker than we had incorporated into our January outlook. So, that’s something we will be looking at when we prepare the April outlook.” Canadian home prices “need to come down” and “housing feeds into our forecast […]
March 17, 2026 | Debt Burdens Outweigh Bank of Canada Cuts
With higher oil prices expected to impact inflation, financial markets shifted from anticipating rate cuts to considering the possibility of rate hikes in Canada. In response, longer-term bond yields rose for the first couple of weeks of March, pushing up borrowing costs. About 1.15 million Canadians are expected to renew their mortgages in 2026. Renewing […]
March 16, 2026 | Compounding Shocks Raise Bear Market Odds
An oil shock amid rising credit stress and negative job revisions, unexpectedly pushing up unemployment. Every cycle is a little different, but similar developments have marked the onset of past recessions and bear markets. Oil price spikes reduce economic demand, partly because they tend to keep interest rates higher for longer. The segments below do […]
March 13, 2026 | Canadian Bond Prices Surge on ‘Unexpected’ Job Losses
In February, the Canadian economy ‘unexpectedly’ lost 83,000 jobs, the most since January 2022 (shown below since 2020), driving the unemployment rate up to 6.7% after a 25,000-job loss in January. Economists surveyed had expected employment to rise by 10,000 and the jobless rate to be 6.6%. Employment declines were widespread and across both goods […]
March 12, 2026 | Why So Many Private Credit Investors Want Out
The plan to bring mom-and-pop investors into ‘alternative’ investments was always about finding a pool of greater fools to keep inflows coming. The ‘free money’ years covered up a lot of naked swimmers that are now being revealed. When people need cash, they sell what they can, and this is how liquidation contagion spreads between […]
March 11, 2026 | About That: How High Will The U.S.-Israel War with Iran Push Gas Prices?
Oil and gas prices are rapidly rising around the world amid the U.S.-Israel war with Iran. Andrew Chang explains what’s driving the surge and why predicting the next moves in the oil market is so difficult. Here is a direct video link. Spikes in oil prices, especially late in business cycles, when asset prices and debt […]
March 10, 2026 | Fuel Costs Tax Everyone
Last week’s near 35% spike in the price of oil (WTIC) was the biggest gain in futures trading history, dating back to 1983 (shown below, courtesy of Bespoke Investment Group). After closing at $90.90 a barrel on Friday, the price rose to $119.48 intraday yesterday, then slumped 15% to $80 this afternoon. That’s still up 47% […]
March 6, 2026 | Diversify This
The investment sales world loves to talk about the defensive benefit of holding different equity sectors and global markets. The pitch is that there’s always a bull market somewhere, so we can always-be-buying risk-on products. The US stock market is heavily concentrated (39%) in the top 10 most expensive companies today (dark blue bar below). […]
March 4, 2026 | Blocked Exits Intensify The Urge To Get Out
After the 2008 financial crisis, more than a decade of zero-interest-rate policies drove an explosion in private credit products and funds that were initially marketed to institutions and pensions under the oxymoron of safe ‘high-yield’. Then, from March 2022 to May 2023, a record succession of central bank rate hikes took the US Fed rate […]
March 3, 2026 | Shocks are Part of life; Sentiment Coming into Them Matters
Macro shocks are a constant throughout time. The market impact is often dramatic in the short-term. Longer-term, outcomes vary depending on the level of optimism that was priced in when the shock hits. Coming into 2026, most asset markets were exhibiting excessive optimism -pricing the best of all possible outcomes. Just one example: the S&P […]
February 26, 2026 | Private Equity’s Dry Spell Worse Than 2008 Crisis
Private equity returned fewer profits to investors for a fourth straight year as the industry sat on $3.8 trillion of unsold assets and struggled to raise money for new funds. Distributions as a percentage of net asset value remained at 14% last year — the second-lowest level since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis, […]