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September 5, 2024 | Gold Stocks and Great Financial Bubbles Just Early into a Multi-Year Bull Market At Times Outperforming the S&P And With a World-Scale Discovery: Fabulous Action
A Great Financial Bubble is a very exciting event for everyone from direct participants to looky-loos, including an enraptured media. Generated by human action with far too many participants thinking the Bubble is unique and enduring. With five previous examples, gold’s real price weakened a little as the Bubble climaxed. A page of charts follow.
April 28, 2024 | Science for Those Who Hate Science
Decades ago, there was an article titled “Jazz for People Who Hate Jazz”. The idea was to introduce those who did not know to those who did know. More recently and unfortunately, government-sponsored dogma has promoted an anti-science movement – ironically – in the name of “science”. Disgustingly, mainly for power and money. . Ironically, […]
April 26, 2024 | What’s Behind: “Sell in May and Go Away”
There is considerable history behind the gem of stock market lore to “Sell in May”. The real explanation is readily provided by the record of Great Bubbles as they occurred in the London financial markets. There were five to the 1929 example. Four climaxed in May. And one, the infamous 1720 South Sea Bubble climaxed […]
December 29, 2023 | Princely Finance and Taxation
One would have hoped that financial rip-offs committed by medieval princes would have been permanently shelved when liberal enlightenment ended the divine right of kings. Instead, the divine right of bureaucrats has forced too much in-your-face and in-your-wallet government. Today’s supposedly classless version of greedy royalty. But there is hope. The remedy lies in benign […]
October 4, 2023 | Stock Markets Hindenburg Omen Precedes Hemmingway Bankruptcy
Of course, the Hemmingway quote on bankruptcy is more widely known than the technical signal in the stock market called the Hindenburg Omen.
August 28, 2023 | Inflation: Out of Control?
The strongest run of “Inflation” in more than forty years is underway, and pundits claim that it has much further to go. Indeed, popular and highly regarded financial talk shows are reporting that “All paper currencies have eventually gone to zero”. Inevitably, such would indeed be catastrophic.
August 20, 2023 | Credit Crisis: Curve and Spreads: Both Now Warning
In March the Yield Curve inverted as short rates rose above long rates. We use the 2s to 20s and the inversion has always been followed by a recession, without exception. The warning becomes more acute as the Curve reverses, which it is doing now. A slowing economy reduces the ability to service debt with […]
May 8, 2023 | Climate Hysteria: Greatest Mistake Since Witches Were Executed for Causing Bad Weather
Yes, during the prolonged starvation and famines caused by the cooling trend during the Little Ice Age learned magistrates burned witches at the stake. In Northern Europe during the 1500s, thousands of innocent women were legally executed. Nowadays, the blame game for “threatening” weather is more democratic, with all women, men and children right down to […]
April 8, 2023 | Global Warming Confusions
That Trudeau is determined to reduce domestic production of crude oil and natural gas is difficult to accept. Particularly during the discomforts of government’s essential role in imposing price inflation and still having the hatred on for fossil fuels. Sadly, the delusion extends to nitrogen which for a thousand years farmers have been replacing what […]
April 5, 2023 | Climate Update
Headlines screeching about the “Earth Frying” are still being published, despite the 0.75 C drop since 2016. Which with the general flat-lying trend for almost twenty years is refuting the dogma about “Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming”. The Satellite temperature record follows:
December 30, 2022 | Outlook for 2023: Sort Of
Decades ago, when we were retained by major mining companies for our studies on metal prices there were varying views. Guys in the market-finance department wanted to know price trends for metals. Using supply/demand analysis they were experienced at extrapolating trends. Actual reversals in price typically lead key changes in the supply/demand equation, which makes […]
December 29, 2022 | Princely Finance and Taxation For More Than Twenty Years an Annual Piece
One would have hoped that financial rip-offs committed by medieval princes would have been permanently shelved when liberal enlightenment ended the divine right of kings. Instead, the divine right of bureaucrats has forced too much in-your-face and in-your-wallet government. Today’s supposedly classless version of greedy royalty.
December 1, 2022 | Real Estate: The Post-Bubble Bear Market Could Run For Years
A great mania in real estate erupted with the financial bubble and will likely be followed by a lengthy decline. Previous post-bubble contractions have prevailed for some twenty years, with the usual 3 to 4-year business cycle coming and going. The following chart shows the outstanding rally in the S&P Real Estate Sector peaked in […]
September 29, 2022 | Worst Treasury Rout in Decades
Indeed, whether looking at price or yield, there has been panic-selling which has been feeding upon itself. News or opinion sites that pay little attention to interest rates posted a piece on the alarm and another on “Inflation”, which is the obvious explanation.
September 7, 2022 | Aggressive Fed-Rate Increases: Is Powell Doing A Volcker?
After being arbitrarily accommodating, then in a relatively sudden fit of increasing administered rates, is the current Fed Chair, Powell, trying to replicate Chairman Volcker’s “success” in ending inflation in 1980? Perhaps, but since the Fed opened its doors in 1914 the US dollar is only worth, well, 3 cents on the dollar – which […]