ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
July 5, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday July 5th 2025
The Bottom Line Passage of “The One Beautiful Bill” by Congress late on Thursday and signed by President Trump on Friday is expected to set the stage for North American equity markets to move higher this week. The “Summer Rally” that frequently lasts until the end of July started last week. Consensus for Earnings and […]
July 4, 2025 | Clean Energy Reclaims Market Leadership
At the start of the year, the narrative was straightforward: fossil fuel producers stood to benefit from supportive domestic policy, while clean energy—out of favour politically and commercially—looked set to lag. Markets had priced in a resurgence in drilling, with investor consensus leaning heavily toward traditional hydrocarbons. That view hasn’t aged well. Six months on, […]
July 4, 2025 | Happy Fourth of July
Today marks the anniversary of a revolution—not merely against a king, but against tyranny in all its forms. The Founding Fathers didn’t establish a democracy; they created a constitutional republic, understanding full well that democracy often devolves into mob rule and eventually leads to tyranny. As always, Socrates is tracking the path ahead. The […]
July 3, 2025 | Recession is Here?
David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes recession odds are higher than 2022 despite nobody expecting one, pointing to Fed staff forecasting 50% recession probability and the most downbeat Beige Book since 1980. Rosenberg criticizes Powell for calling the economy “solid” while real GDP has been negative sequentially in 2 of the past […]
July 2, 2025 | US Crude Product Inventories Rise 9.6 Mb Last Week As US Gasoline Consumption Falls Materially
Summary: President Trump wants to sign his ‘BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL” on Independence Day – July 4th but the alternative Senate and House bills need to be reconciled and then voted upon again before being sent to the President. Big differences on Medicaid access, the SALT deduction for high tax states (I.e. Blue Democratic States with […]
July 2, 2025 | The Economic Confidence Model v the 80-Year Cyclical Theory
The concept of cycles is becoming accepted in Western culture. Recently, people have been focusing on what they deem the 80-year cyclical theory, which marks a significant shift in humanity. While this may be true, as it takes a few generations to change society, they are not incorporating the additional nuisances associated with the […]
July 2, 2025 | Why the Gold Bull Market Has Legs, in Six Charts And silver…
There are a lot of “xx priced in gold” charts floating around, most of which show that stocks, houses, and pretty much everything else aren’t actually going up in real (i.e., gold-adjusted) terms. They only appear to be in bull markets because we’re measuring them with declining fiat currencies. Here’s an unusual example: The Porsche […]
July 2, 2025 | Chinese Economy Disappointed in June
Leland Miller, China Beige Book CEO, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the state of China’s economy, impact of U.S.-China trade negotiations, how much leverage the country has over the U.S., and more. Here is a direct video link.
July 1, 2025 | 43% of Americans Near Poverty Place Essential Purchases on Credit
The PYMNTS Intelligence report “Financial Lifestyles Shape Credit Reliance” revealed that American consumers are struggling to afford the basic essentials. Prices have been elevated since the worldwide pandemic shutdown the global economy and have not gone down in a meaningful way. The study found that 43% of American households who are a paycheck away from […]
June 30, 2025 | Art of the Collapse, July 2025
Another month, another war. And more AI babies… This week, Florida opened “Alligator Alcatraz.” Speaking of AI, it seems to no longer care what we think:
June 30, 2025 | Opportunity for Canada
Canada needs to build things the world wants. A Canadian car company is rolling in a zero-emission vehicle called ‘Project Arrow’. CTV’s Sean Leathong reports. Here is a direct video link. Also, see Donald Trump’s disdain for wind energy could create windfall for Nova Scotia: experts: New England states and New York have been leading development […]
June 30, 2025 | NYC Mayoral Candidate Wants to Tax White Neighborhoods
New York City’s far-left mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani is the human embodiment of the WOKE Socialist agenda. His “progressive” views are based on policies that have failed countless times. Mamdani’s most recent proposal has sparked controversy as he believes that predominantly white neighborhoods should pay higher taxes. Socialists feed on increased taxation to support the […]
June 29, 2025 | The Four Faces of War
QUESTION: You are pessimistic about a resolution in the Iran-Israel conflict. Why is this different from Ukraine or even Vietnam? Jake ANSWER: This conflict between Iran and Israel is far more serious because it is Religious, not Ethnic, philosophical, or Conquest. The Ukraine conflict is ethnic. Ukrainians wrongly hate Russians because Stalin took their food and starved millions. What they REFUSE to admit […]
June 29, 2025 | The Huge AI Story May Not Be Quite Huge Enough
The S&Ps and Nasdaq hit record highs last week, a surreal milestone that only the Wall Street toadies at Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal who fabricate the news could take seriously. These are the same folks who bestowed the name ‘Magnificent Seven’ on a bunch of high-flying stocks whose short-squeeze histrionics qualify them for membership in […]
June 29, 2025 | The Great Slowdown
Economic news is increasingly hard to follow these days, mainly because it changes so fast and it gives so many mixed signals. Less than three months ago, we were all in shock from President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement. While he paused the worst parts of that plan, US import taxes are still at their […]
June 28, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for June 28, 2025
This year’s S&P rally to new all-time highs, after dropping more than 20% in three months, was the quickest ever! The S&P has dropped by more than 20% four times in the last 10 years. (2018 down 21% in three months, 2020 down 36% in two months, 2022 down 27% in ten months and 2025 down […]
June 28, 2025 | Is Tokenized Gold the Future of Money?
When cryptocurrencies first emerged, the blockchain (a distributed ledger that tracks ownership of bitcoin and other cryptos) caught the attention of gold-standard proponents. What if, they mused, gold is the base money of the post-reset financial system, but — without ever leaving its vaults — it transacts on a blockchain, giving it the frictionless mobility […]
June 28, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday June 28th 2025
The Bottom Line All-time highs for the S&P 500 Index and NASDAQ Composite Index were recorded on Friday! What about a summer rally by U.S. equity indices this year? According to www.EquityClock.com, “The market may be setup for a move higher going into the new quarter. Stocks have tended to produce gains, on average, between […]
June 27, 2025 | Pfizergate
In early 2021, the entire European Union was under lockdown. Governments were prohibiting citizens from participating in society without the vaccination, and the EU’s largest supplier at the time, AstraZeneca, was unable to meet production needs. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen awarded Pfizer a €35 billion contract, personally, bypassing the proper channels in […]
June 27, 2025 | Crude Oil Prices Barely Move After Armed Conflict Engulfs the Middle East
Why Didn’t Crude Oil Spike After U.S. and Israeli Attacks on Iran? Crude oil prices barely flinched after two shocking military strikes on Iran. On June 13, 2025, Israel launched an air assault. Days later, the U.S. stunned the world by bombing Iran’s uranium refining facilities. Yet Brent crude, the global benchmark, only managed a […]
June 27, 2025 | Black Swans: What If Mexico Nationalizes Silver?
Bad for some miners, great for physical silver Mexico is by far the world’s biggest source of silver: So what happens there matters to all silver investors. And things seem to be changing: Sheinbaum maintains Mexico’s freeze on new mining concessions (BNAmeicas) – Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum reiterated that no new mining concessions will be […]
June 27, 2025 | People with High Incomes Tend to Have the Highest Leverage
Many people believe that “rich people always have money.” What is typically overlooked is that people with higher incomes tend to have higher overhead and debt levels, and any savings they have are often invested in risky asset markets. This magnifies vulnerability to downturns in the economy, income, and stock market, eventually intensifying liquidation cycles. […]
June 26, 2025 | The NATO Summit
A source from inside the NATO summit reported that Trump has correctly stated that Article 5 is voluntary, not a binding commitment. He has said that the US will sell and supply weapons, intelligence, and support to NATO and NATO members if a NATO member is attacked by other countries that are not NATO […]
June 26, 2025 | Copper Squeeze: A Great Story Playing Out as Expected
Gold and silver have generated a lot more buzz than copper in the past couple of years. But that might be changing. On metals exchanges, copper inventories are falling while demand surges, leading to speculation that a “squeeze” will soon spike the metal’s price. As Bloomberg reports: Copper Faces Historic Squeeze With LME Stockpiles Depleting […]
June 26, 2025 | Sell-Side Noise Masks Extreme Financial Risk
Stock bulls cite prices back near all-time highs as a self-fulfilling prophecy for financial resiliency. After rebounding 22% since the April 8 lows, the S&P 500 is now +3.5% year to date and .90% below its February high. Another way to say this is that large-cap stocks have returned to extreme capital risk and overvaluation […]