ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
March 2, 2025 | The Bull’s Eye Matrix: Updated
Bull’s Eye Investing was published on January 1, 2004. It quickly became a bestseller. The main thing that people still ask me about was a trifold spread color chart of stock market returns since 1900. Returns were color-coded so readers could see the ebb and flow of returns over time. That remarkable representation of market performance […]
March 2, 2025 | A ‘Formula’ for Preparedness
You’ve heard from ‘Formula382’ before. A longtime Rick’ Picks subscriber, he manages wealth in the Ozarks, using puts and calls aggressively, with a dollop of good timing, to keep clients happy. He has also shown uncanny skill at rotating out of sectors just before they peak. In a recent chat room discussion, Formula wondered whether […]
March 1, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for March 1, 2025
Current positioning: My short-term trading account began this week long TNotes and Yen, short the S&P. I covered the Notes and S&P for good gains mid-week and was stopped for a slight loss on the Yen. I bought the S&P on Friday and held that into the weekend. Equities The S&P touched all-time highs on February 19 (blue […]
March 1, 2025 | Zelensky Shows the World He is no Diplomat
QUESTION: How did you know today would end this way, with Zelenskyy making a fool of himself? SL ANSWER: Zelensky is believing his own BS, and the press loves him because of the Neocon propaganda. To refuse a cease-fire, claiming you need a security deal first, was not just BS, but it was based […]
March 1, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday March 1st 2025
The Bottom Line The period of seasonal outperformance by the TSX Composite Index came to an end last week. Contributions into RRSPs until February 28th are a major reason for outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index. Technical breakdowns below intermediate support last week by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 Index and NASDAQ […]
February 28, 2025 | Trump is Wrong To Impose Tariffs on Canada
Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, outlined the likely economic impact of new U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports announced by President Trump. These 25 percent tariffs on most Canadian goods are expected on March 4. Canadian energy and electricity would incur tariffs of 10 percent. How much economic degradation is coming? Is Trump […]
February 28, 2025 | Evaluating Greenland’s Role in a Tight Global Uranium Market
Investors fearing that uranium mining in Greenland might depress market prices should consider several critical factors, including the current global supply shortfall, and an expanding supply-demand gap, Addressing Investor Concerns About Greenland’s Uranium Impact on Prices Current Uranium Market Dynamics The uranium market is grappling with a pronounced supply deficit. In 2024, production reached only […]
February 28, 2025 | GMO’s Jeremy Grantham: Stock Bubble To Be Crushed
Merryn Somerset Webb interviews GMO co-founder and notorious caller of market bubbles Jeremy Grantham. Grantham, who also serves as the firm’s long-term investment strategist, leans into his more than five decades of investing experience to explain the current “super bubble” in the markets. He comments on when we’ll see a correction, the fate of the […]
February 28, 2025 | Art of the Collapse, March 2025
Lots of disclosures are being promised…but there’s a bit of skepticism out there: POV: Elon Musk and DOGE arriving at Fort Knox for the audit. pic.twitter.com/Zgl599XMXy — Carl ₿ MENGER ⚡️🇸🇻 (@CarlBMenger) February 17, 2025 NSA Agents Horrified People Spying On Their Personal Conversations (Babylon Bee) – A group of federal employees expressed feelings […]
February 27, 2025 | Britain’s Possible Return to the EU
There are calls for Britain to rejoin the European Union, with Parliament expected to debate matters on March 24. Nigel Farage worked tirelessly to protect Britain from Brussels. The latest proposal for Britain to rejoin the European Union is nothing short of economic suicide. This is not about what’s best for Britain—it’s about the EU’s desperate attempt […]
February 27, 2025 | Government Spending Cuts Further Headwind for Real Estate and Economy
The good news is that shelter prices are finally retreating; the bad news is that this has significant knock-on effects for existing owners, debtors, lenders, and many other feeder sectors. Thousands of Canadians are missing mortgage payments — especially in Ontario and B.C. — as the affordability crisis stretches household budgets to the limit despite […]
February 26, 2025 | Gold Visas – Attracting Wealthy Immigrants
The United States is looking to attract wealthy immigrants looking for US citizenship through a new “gold visa” program. “It’ll be people with money,” Trump said outright, noting the visa is “something akin to a green card, but with a higher level of sophistication.” The new path to citizenship will replace the current EB-5 visa […]
February 26, 2025 | WTI Breaches US$69/b. A New Energy Sector BUY Signal Should Occur in March
In early April we will see if President Trump is going to add stiff tariffs to Mexico and Canada and others around the world. It appears that he is using the hammer against his closest neighbours and then taking the plan against Europe and the rest of the world with trade surpluses with the US. […]
February 26, 2025 | Weirdest Housing Bubble Ever
Real estate is cyclical, which means it has its booms and busts, each of which differs slightly from the last. But today’s US housing market is so outside the norm that its strangeness has become the story’s main theme. Consider: Numerically speaking, housing used to be driven by young families buying starter houses. But today, […]
February 26, 2025 | Trumphoria Under Review
After the U.S. election, Trumphoria swept financial markets with parabolic moves in many risk assets into the new year. However, the realization may have dawned in the past month that government spending cuts, fewer immigrants, and tariffs mean more job losses, lower economic growth, and fewer passive capital flows into the stock market. From its […]
February 26, 2025 | Germany Seeks Independence from the USA
Friedrich Merz, the leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party and perhaps the new chancellor of Deutschland has a message for America – the relationship is over. Many have condemned the Russian people for supporting Vladimir Putin which is precisely what Merz has done regarding Donald Trump and conservative Americans. Merz plans […]
February 25, 2025 | Housing Bubbles are Very Costly in the Long-Run
The Bank of Canada has slashed overnight interest rates by 200 basis points over the past seven months to 3% from 5%, while variable and fixed mortgage rates have fallen to around 4% from more than 5% a year ago. Mortgage rates of around 4% are not high; they are about average historically. The trouble […]
February 24, 2025 | The Neocon Coup that Has Controlled the USA for 26 Year is Coming to an End
QUESTION: You said that the US was going to invade Iran after Iraq. Was that classified? I never heard of that. You also said that the Neocons pulled off a coup and seized control of American foreign policy, and the press prints their narrative. I respect your sources, which appear to be remarkable. Lira was […]
February 24, 2025 | Revenue Thoughts
Last week we began discussing the import tariffs President Trump has been threatening. Most (China is the exception) have not taken effect yet. It’s possible they will never happen or will be quickly modified or rescinded as happened in Trump’s first term. Real or not, the fact these tariffs might happen affects business and consumer confidence, which […]
February 24, 2025 | Shelter Inflation
Happy Monday Morning! A recent reprieve on tariffs, combined with slightly hotter than expected jobs and inflation data have slowed the odds of a rate cut from the Bank of Canada in March. The two core inflation measures — so-called trim and median — both jumped to 2.7% in January. These metrics have been stuck […]
February 23, 2025 | Merz Wins in Germany but Ignores the People
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, Congratulations. Socrates was correct once again. Scholz’s unpopular Social Democrat government has the worst performance since World War II. Merz won, and Afd doubled its support, coming in second. If this was America, Merz’s less than 29% would have been a joke. Here, he will rule Germany and stupidly vow no coalition […]
February 23, 2025 | Recession Watch: Should We Be Raising Cash?
Now, let’s zoom in on specific sectors that seem to be rolling over. Auto loan delinquency rates are spiking: Housing is frozen, but with inventories of homes for sale rising, a significant price decline looks imminent: Buyers Strike Crushes Green Shoots of Demand for Existing Homes, amid Surging Supply, Active Listings & Days on Market […]
February 23, 2025 | Who’s Telling the Truth about DeepSeek?
I’m tracking Nvidia shares closely because they can tell us whether China’s DeepSeek threatens America’s lead in AI development. The Nasdaq-listed stock got pummeled a month ago when the Chinese revealed they were developing an open-source chatbot that can easily compete on performance and price with the most advanced models offered by OpenAI and other […]
February 22, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for February 22, 2025
Current positioning: My short-term trading account is short the S&P, long T-Notes, and long Yen. S&P futures traded at record highs on Wednesday but fell ~2.25% to Friday’s lows Friday’s break was the most significant drop since December 18, when the Fed cut 25 bps but hinted it was unlikely to cut again soon. Since […]
February 22, 2025 | Montana Legislators Working to Ban mRNA Vaccines
Messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccinations produce foreign proteins in the human body, triggering an immune response to prepare the body for future infections. Lipid nanoparticles flow into cells, mimicking a protein, but “the science” claims it does not enter the nucleus and, therefore, does not impact DNA. These vaccines are relatively new, with the first trial […]