ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
April 28, 2025 | Carney Wins Canada & the Recession into 2027 Begins
I have never witnessed such outright lies by a candidate as Carney. But hey, it has worked. With the votes in from the East, giving the Liberals 150 seats out of 343 so far, there is no way the Conservatives will get a majority. Our model provided three numbers for the Liberals: 41.25, 45.40, and […]
April 28, 2025 | Risk-off Following Familiar Pattern
The extremely over-valued, tech-concentrated US stock market has been a bug in search of a window for a long time. Trump’s chaos is accelerating an inevitable mean reversion that started with the bursting of the AI bubble on China’s DeepSeek news on January 10th. Year to date, the US market has been underperforming international stock […]
April 28, 2025 | Election Day
Happy Monday Morning! Today is the day, Canadians across the country will head to the voting booths and decide the direction of the country for the next four years. Polls suggest another liberal government, but polls are often wrong. This will be a tight race, so get out and vote. Cost of living and housing […]
April 28, 2025 | Recession Watch: Real Estate Is Already There
As always, when it comes to real estate, Wolf Richter’s analysis and charts are very helpful. Let’s take the office building story step-by-step: Between 2010 and 2020, millions of square feet of office space were financed with unnaturally cheap credit. During the pandemic, millions of Americans discovered that they prefer working from home and refused to return […]
April 27, 2025 | Health Prepping: Seed Oils Are Poison
Seed oils are getting a lot of bad press, so I’ve been reading ingredient lists with them in mind. The results are heartbreaking. Things that seemed healthy have turned out, thanks to their reliance on seed oils, to fall into the “heavily processed, do not eat” category. A couple of examples: This Thai curry paste […]
April 27, 2025 | Tariff-Induced Paralysis
In some kinds of surgery, it is necessary to keep the patient extremely still because even small, involuntary movements can cause damage. Anesthesiologists administer “paralytic” drugs so the surgeons can do their work safely. Thus, a condition we would normally dread actually helps restore us to health. Tariffs can have a similar effect on the […]
April 27, 2025 | Zelensky the Destroyer of Europe
The Failure of the London peace talks last Week was a critical defining moment. The “peace talks,” which were meant to take place in London on Wednesday, April 23, 2025, collapsed as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Steve Wytkoff cancelled their attendance. Instead, Wytkoff headed for Moscow for his fourth meeting with […]
April 27, 2025 | Insanely Bullish Forecast Survives Yet Another Week
[My prediction three weeks ago that the bear market had seen its worst seemed crazy at the time — particularly to me, because I’m an inveterate permabear. However, last week, bulls distanced themselves further from the low of the mini-crash that occurred when tariff panic was in the air. I’d said the selling would take […]
April 26, 2025 | Coup at the World Economic Forum
World Economic Forum founder Klaus Schwab is under an internal investigation by the organization he created. There is no question that it has been alleged that the WEF got money from USAID. Exactly how much is hard to say for sure. It has been alleged to be in the tens of millions. Yet here we […]
April 26, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for April 26, 2025
Markets hit “peak uncertainty” on Monday and then reversed dramatically! The US Dollar, bonds and stock markets closed near their lows on Monday, while gold closed at all-time highs. Volatility metrics were high, and it was beginning to look like the existential risks surrounding the recent “Sell America” sentiment were producing a “capital flight” away […]
April 26, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday April 26th 2025
The Bottom Line First quarter results released to date by major North American companies have been a pleasant surprise. Most large cap companies significantly exceeded consensus earnings estimates. Equity prices responded accordingly. Strength in equity prices was recorded despite concerns about U.S. tariff wars that prompted analysts to lower earnings and revenue estimates for the […]
April 25, 2025 | The Next U.S. Recession will Hit the Stock Market Hard
A recession in the U.S. is coming soon, if it has not started already. Uncertainty over the impact of higher tariffs is causing business leaders to hesitate, triggering an investment pause. Consumers are on hold with their spending plans. Government spending cuts add a negative impulse to demand. How will this recession impact the stock […]
April 25, 2025 | More Tales From the Gold Bull Market: Earnings Beats and High-Premium M&A
Agnico Eagle, generally seen as the best-run senior gold miner, just reported blow-out earnings: Agnico Eagle Smashes Q1 Expectations with Record Earnings and Soaring Gold Prices (Kitco News) – Another quarterly earnings report means another record broken for Canada’s largest gold producer. On Thursday, after the North American equity close, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (NYSE: […]
April 25, 2025 | Student Debt Problems are Contagious
According to the Education Data Initiative report, the total outstanding debt in US student loans (federal and private) is a record $1.77 trillion for more than 42 million borrowers. The average debt of a federal student loan borrower is about $37,853, with those aged 50 to 61 having the highest average debt at $46,790. Debt levels vary […]
April 25, 2025 | Meet Schwab’s Successor – Peter Brabeck-Letmathe
Peter Brabeck-Letmathe has replaced Klaus Schwab as the acting CEO of the World Economic Forum in what appears to be a stage coup. The 80-year-old Austrian businessman spent his career working for Nestle, moving through the ranks from 1968 to 1997 when he was appointed CEO, a position he held until 2008. He remained […]
April 24, 2025 | Retirement Funds in Trouble
Unfortunately, many individuals and pensions hold high, inappropriate financial risk that pays rich fees to ‘advisors’ and product creators.Clients can be hard to help as they often prefer the ‘good news’ touted by sell-side wizards over sober, fiduciary assessments made from the perspective of capital protection and longer-term best interests. This is especially true when […]
April 24, 2025 | Zelensky Refuses Any Peace Deal Taking Orders from EU & NATO – War Forever
Donald Trump berated Zelenskyy on April 23, after he said Ukraine would not legally recognize Russian control over Crimea. He said he will not accept ceding any territory, even though this is against the Minsk Agreement that was supposed to allow the Donbas to vote on separation, since they are Russians who have lived there […]
April 23, 2025 | WHO Finalizes Pandemic Treaty
The World Health Organization (WHO) has been scheming to finalize the Pandemic Treaty to ensure global cohesion during the next pandemic. Over 190 member nations have agreed to surrender sovereignty in the name of public health, permitting an unelected organization of individuals to detail how they will respond to the next round of government imposed […]
April 23, 2025 | Next Low Risk BUY Window For Energy Stocks Expected In May As WTI Retreats Below US$60/b.
US stocks are now rebounding from the nasty fall from 45,100 in The Dow Jones Industrials Index (in late January 2025) to 36,600 (in early April 2025) as tariff news is less alarming. As more US companies visit the White House and talk of the damage the announced tariff rates would hurt their businesses and […]
April 23, 2025 | Bear Market Drivers Intact
Risk markets are staging another bear market bounce on Trump’s latest statement that he does not intend to fire Fed Chair Powell. They are also negotiating with China. These things pass as good news today, but the macro picture continues to deteriorate. US capital expenditure plans and new orders (black lines below since 1985, courtesy of The […]
April 22, 2025 | Markets Slide as Political Turmoil Erodes Confidence
Global equities tumbled Monday, driven by political instability, policy uncertainty, and rising trade tensions. Trump’s threat to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell further undermined confidence in the Fed’s independence and the broader US financial system. The S&P 500 heatmap was a sea of red, with Netflix a rare bright spot. Major tech names led the […]
April 22, 2025 | Mining is Hard: The End of the Cobre Panama Story?
Once-favorable mining jurisdictions are becoming battlegrounds, adding a new layer of risk to an already challenging business. The most ominous example of this trend is the Cobre Panama copper mine, on which one of our portfolio’s royalty companies had bet big. See: Just How Bad Was Franco-Nevada’s Bad News? Franco-Nevada Takes Its Cobre Panama Hit The mine’s […]
April 22, 2025 | 112 Year Cycle of Progressivism In Canada As Well
Canada future-lives-social-mobility-en The fragmentation of Canada is bubbling beneath the surface, as we see in the United States as well as in Europe. There is a huge divide between LEFT and RIGHT politics, and never since the late 19th Century to the 1920 period has there ever been such a stark political divide. There was […]
April 22, 2025 | Defy, Deny, Defund, Depot, Destroy
I must have dreamed a thousand dreams Been haunted by a million screams But I can hear the marching feet They’re moving into the street Now, did you read the news today? They say the danger has gone away But I can see the fire’s still alight They’re burning into the night There’s […]
April 21, 2025 | How to Judge Those Gold Miner “Free Cash Flow” Numbers
We’re entering the age of free cash flow (FCF), in which gold miners start trumpeting the size and growth of this metric in every public utterance. So we’ll need an analytical tool for judging whose FCF — and by implication, stock — is most valuable. Resourceful Insights’ George Billman just posted a quick way to put a […]