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January 28, 2025 | Tariff Threats Successful – Colombia to Accept Returned Citizens
Tariffs never work, but threats often do when it is known they will be carried out. Donald Trump threatened Colombia with massive tariffs, sanctions, and travel bans if the nation refused to take back thousands of illegal Colombian migrants. Within ONE HOUR, Colombia agreed to all terms and conditions. Two repatriation flights to Colombia […]
January 28, 2025 | Insolvency Cycle Picking Up
‘Maximizing shareholder value’ has been about pumping up near-term valuations at the expense of long-term financial health and viability. Private equity is excellent at this. Kristina Partsinevelos joins CNBC’s ‘The Exchange’ to discuss the latest data on bankruptcies. Here is a direct video link. Households are increasingly struggling. The American consumer is showing some signs of […]
January 27, 2025 | American Tech Exceptionalism Under Review
The trouble with overconfidence and securities priced to perfection is that something always happens to upend the narrative. Underdogs often accomplish more for less; it’s a question of when, not if. Necessity has always been the mother of invention because constraints drive ingenuity. Anna Edwards, Guy Johnson, Kriti Gupta and Mark Cudmore break down today’s […]
January 27, 2025 | Biden’s Pardons are Unconstitutional
COMMENT: Dear Marty I read your article about Fauci’s pardon being unconstitutional, but I have something to add. The basis for pre-emptive pardons being unlawful can be found in ancient English constitutional law, see the Prince of Orange’s 1688 Declaration of Reason that preceded England’s 1688 Bill of Rights. This carries over to USA via […]
January 27, 2025 | Poorer Than You Think
Happy Monday Morning! A good reminder from the economics team at National Bank highlights the sobering proposition that a Canadian household would need an annual income of approximately $186,963 to afford a mortgage on a median-priced home in this country, at which point the government thinks you’re rich and taxes you into oblivion. In places […]
January 26, 2025 | Nifty Trick Keeps the Bull Alive
I still expect Bitcoin to notch one or two more record highs on the hourly chart, but they will likely be the dying gasp of the bull market that began in 2009. There is reason to doubt that the broad averages will be swept up in this fetid blast of flatulence. That would […]
January 26, 2025 | Is 666 also the Number of the Universe?
QUESTION: Hi Martin, I am unsure if I have informed you of a little thing I noticed about the ECM a while back that I was recently reminded of and you may find interesting. I’ll keep it simple. The square root of 666 is 25.8069….. / 3 = 8.6023…. coincidence or relation? […]
January 25, 2025 | Has Trump Propelled Us Into World War III?
QUESTION: What happened to Trump and his claim he would end the war with Ukraine instantly? What does your computer have to say about this boast? SL ANSWER: I think Trump’s post on Truth Social was a HUGE MISTAKE, and I am very, very, very disappointed. He slapped Vladimir Putin across the face, and what […]
January 25, 2025 | Trump’s Biggest Policy Change Is Great For Gold
The president has definitely hit the ground running. But his most impactful policy move isn’t an executive order or cabinet appointment. It’s this: President Trump says he’ll ‘demand that interest rates drop immediately’ (CNBC) – President Donald Trump lobbed his first volley at the Federal Reserve, saying Thursday that he will apply pressure to bring down interest […]
January 25, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday January 25th 2025
The Bottom Line Primary focus this week is on central bank news released on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its Fed Fund Rate at 4.50% and the Bank of Canada is expected to lower its lending rate to Canada’s major banks to 3.00% from 3.25%. Investors will be watching closely for guidance […]
January 24, 2025 | Canada Should Use The Nuclear Option Against Trump
As soon as February 1, the U.S. might impose a 25 percent tariff on all imports from Canada. Crude oil is one of the biggest Canadian exports to the U.S. One possibility for retaliation, termed the “nuclear option”, is to cut off all crude oil exports to the U.S. Currently Canada supplies about 2/3 of […]
January 24, 2025 | Trump’s Revolution, In Context
As you watch Trump shred the old order, are you wondering about this revolution’s historical and philosophical roots? For instance, how does MAGA relate to the Fourth Turning? Or to the deep state? Or the Monroe Doctrine, Woodrow Wilson’s globalism, George Soros’ “open society?” or Klaus Schwab’s one world government? Could you, in short, use […]
January 24, 2025 | Trump Outlaws CBDC – Telling Schwab and the WEF to Stuff It!
President Trump Signs Executive Order To Ban Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC). As I have been warning and appeared in the movie CBDC, the End of Money, that it would have been unconstitutional for the Federal Reserve to create a CBDC, and my sources had confirmed that the Fed would not make a CBDC. This […]
January 23, 2025 | Could the US Drop Canada as a Trade Partner? Trump Threatens FREE Trade
Donald Trump is prepared to drop Canada as a trade partner based on his recent comments in Davos at the World Economic Forum. “We don’t need them to make our cars, and they make a lot of them. We don’t need their lumber because we have our own forests,” he continued. “We don’t need their […]
January 23, 2025 | Loonie Dives to 22-Year Low
Canada’s loonie (CAD) traded at .6939 U.S. this morning, the lowest since January 2003. Part of the weakness comes from the Canadian overnight rate at 3.25%, which is expected to be cut to 3% on January 29, 133 basis points (bps) below the current U.S. effective funds rate at 4.33%. Foreign capital flows where it’s […]
January 22, 2025 | Why Biden’s Pardons Are Unconstitutional and VOID
QUESTION: YOu said that Biden’s pardons are probably unconstitutional. Please explain this since nobody in the press has taken that position. Thank you for your insight LD ANSWER: The only pardon that has any real validity is that for Hunter. All of these “preemptive” pardons are not valid. The Supreme Court made this issue […]
January 22, 2025 | WTI Falls >US$3/b Over The Last Week As Markets Await Trump Tariff Decisions
Outgoing President Biden made some last minute questionable pardon decisions that caused a distaste as he exited the stage. Were these individuals (family, J6 committee members and staff or Dr. Fauci, etc.) really guilty or was it to save them from Congressional testimony. Putting the past behind would be the best for America as it […]
January 22, 2025 | Trump Astride Most Over-Valued Stock Market
President Trump comes back to office amid one of the most over-valued stock markets of all time, even more inflated than at President Hoover’s inauguration months before the Black Tuesday crash of 1929. See WSJ: Make America Cheap Again. The CAPE is just one of a long list of historically prescient indicators ringing alarm bells. Of […]
January 22, 2025 | Mining is Hard: Mali Demands a Bigger Cut
The East African nation of Mali experienced a military coup in 2021. After settling in, the new “junta” turned its attention to the country’s miners, claiming a bigger stake in projects and demanding commensurately higher tax payments. First in the crosshairs was Perth-based Resolute Mining. When the company’s CEO came to town to negotiate a new […]
January 21, 2025 | DoubleLine Round Table 2025
More moving parts than usual in 2025…For a few new ones, see Everything to Know about Trump’s Use of Executive Orders. The discussion below further elucidates. During the macroeconomic segment of Round Table Prime’s 2025 edition, participants, among other issues, deliberate the future path of inflation, premature Trump administration assumptions at the Federal Reserve, the hidden but […]
January 21, 2025 | Canada Created its Own Trade Barriers
Stéfane Marion, chief economist of the National Bank of Canada, has urged the Canadian government to reconsider their own trade barriers amid criticism of Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated in a 2019 study that Canada’s own restrictions are “regarded as the most comprehensive analysis of internal trade barriers.” Rather […]
January 20, 2025 | Listening to Fools
COMMENT: I had assumed you were just a Trump supporter. It has been emphasized that I was wrong and that you are in the middle of forecasting the events economically. I was told you recently said that Trump could go down as Herbert Hoover and that he cannot prevent the recession from occurring. Would […]
January 20, 2025 | Balance Sheet Recessions Take Years To Repair
The winds of change are blowing around the globe. 74 countries representing half of the world’s population held national elections last year. Many of them — including the US — saw a replacement of the ruling incumbent by the opposition, often one promising a more nationalistic agenda. With so many new leaders and their accompanying […]
January 20, 2025 | The Cash Cow
Happy Monday Morning! Highlighting a good piece from the BMO economics team this past week. Per BMO, The Canadian housing market should firm modestly this year, but it’s still a long way back to the 2022 highs. Activity and prices have recently improved alongside Bank of Canada rate cuts, and that moderate upward momentum should […]
January 19, 2025 | Microsoft
Get Microsoft right, as I continue to remind you, and your forecast for the stock market can’t go far wrong. The tech giant is among the most valuable companies in the world, with extraordinary profit margins tied to an 80% market share in operating systems. The subscription-based revenue model the company has put in place […]