ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
December 28, 2024 | Canada Moving for a NO CONFIDENCE Vote to Throw Out Trudeau
The C$ is poised to finally elect a Yearly Sell Signal (Bearish Reversal) warning that Canada may not bottom out until 2026. Even if Trudeau is removed from office, will that prevent the Decline & Fall of Canada into 2026? We will deal with these questions and more in our annual report on Canada for […]
December 28, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday December 28th 2024
The Bottom Line Equity indices around the world bounced from short term deeply oversold levels last week, led by Far East markets. Economic News This Week December Chicago PMI released at 9:45 AM EST on Monday is expected to improve to 42.8 from 40.2 in November. November U.S. Construction Spending released at 10:00 AM EST […]
December 27, 2024 | Why & When NATO Treaty Should be Terminated to Prevent WWIII
The heart of the North Atlantic Treaty is Article 5, which contains two major problems. Yes, Article 5 proclaims that an attack on any member of the Alliance will be considered an attack on all. To justify a full NATO response, it is imperative that any member of NATO create some sort of event […]
December 27, 2024 | Artificial Intelligence Just Revolutionized Politics
Last week’s battle over a continuing resolution (CR) to fund the US government into 2025 got a lot of press coverage, much of it unfavorable. But one aspect of the saga was both underreported and, well, revolutionary. Normally, Congress waits until the government is on the verge of shutting down before releasing a thousand+ page monstrosity of […]
December 26, 2024 | Next Decline In Crude Prices Should Trigger A New Long Term BUY Signal For The Sector.
The official US President Joe Biden is not being seen and his vacuum is being filled by President elect Trump and his entourage led by Elon Musk (seen by Democrats as either the President or Trump’s Prime Minister). Biden lieutenants are looking for new ways to degrade or demean Trump before he takes office. However […]
December 25, 2024 | When the US Government Defaulted on its Bonds
The first three Liberty bonds and the Victory Loan, sold to fund World War I, were indeed retired during the 1920s. However, because the terms of the bonds included a Ponzi Scheme that allowed the bondholder to swap them for the newer bonds, with superior terms, most of the debt from the first, second, […]
December 24, 2024 | Moderna Creates new mRNA Vaccine
If the aftermath of the first widespread mRNA vaccine was not enough to deter the public, the government and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with Moderna to create a new DNA-altering vaccination for the bird flu. And here we go again – Moderna said that their most recent vaccine is specifically […]
December 24, 2024 | Housing Bust: Builders Are Slashing Prices
In early 2023, the stars appeared to align for another housing bust. Home prices were crazy high, consumers were over-indebted, and mortgage rates were rising towards the dreaded 7% level. Add it all up, and a bust at least as dramatic as that of 2007/2008 — when homebuilder stocks fell by 80% — seemed imminent. […]
December 24, 2024 | Grantham on the Baby Bust
It is no secret that population dynamics significantly impact global stability. But what’s really behind today’s shifting global birth trends, the increased need for medically-assisted pregnancy, and the changing age demographics of industrialized nations? Furthermore, what are the implications of these shifts for future economic security? Today, Nate is joined by investment strategist Jeremy Grantham […]
December 23, 2024 | To the Housing Minister
Happy Monday morning! Chaos in Ottawa. Not a whole lot more to add on the subject that you haven’t already read. Freeland is out, the budget exceeded its fiscal guardrails by more than 50%, and we are likely heading for an early election in the New Year. Until then, the Trudeau government has shuffled the […]
December 23, 2024 | Health Prepping: Stop Poisoning Your Family
For readers who are busy planning Christmas dinner, let’s get right to it: You might be poisoning yourself and your family. Because “poison” is exactly what many popular “ultra-processed” foods are. Consider: How Do Processed Foods Affect Your Health? (WebMD) – Highly processed food may put you at a higher cancer risk. One study found that your risk of […]
December 22, 2024 | Larry’s Commentary
Wednesday’s brutal response to a mildly hawkish Federal Reserve rate announcement triggered two opposite market signals. First, the sell-off told us that the great secular bull market that began in 2009 is over. Second, the extraordinarily intense selling generated oversold readings that were bound to produce a short-covering rally, as they indeed have. The stock […]
December 22, 2024 | Quantum Supremacy
As longtime readers know, I am working on a book outlining five different theories on historical cycles and how their predicted “climaxes” all occur around 2030. I’m also very concerned that around that time (if not before) we will see the bond market react badly to the fast-growing national debt. While my poor editors at […]
December 22, 2024 | The Euro is Doomed if Germany Fails
Since the creation of Europe’s common currency in 1999, Germany has been the key to the whole project. The European Central Bank stood ready to buy up all the (for instance) Italian debt that the markets couldn’t or wouldn’t absorb, and Germany stood ready to back the ECB with its industrial might and financial wealth. […]
December 22, 2024 | How does Silver Act During War?
COMMENT: You are wrong. Silver did not decline during World War II. TH ANSWER: I think you misunderstood what I said. It is not that silver declined in price because it was fixed, as you can see from this chart. However, silver declined relative to nickel, which was more critical during the war, […]
December 21, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for December 21, 2024
Animal Spirits experience an Icarus Moment as the adrenaline rush from Trump’s election victory fades. The NAZ rallied ~28% from early August lows to this week’s all-time highs, with nearly half the gains made since Trump’s election victory (circled.) The NAZ was up ~60% from October 2023 and was “by far” the best-performing stock index over […]
December 21, 2024 | Kids for Cash Documentary
Joe Biden granted Pennsylvania Judge Michael Conahan clemency. The kids did not receive the same sympathy.
December 21, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday December 21st 2024
The Bottom Line Here comes Santa Claus! Peak period for the “Santa Claus rally” for U.S. and Canadian equity indices is from December 24th to December 31st Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies. Source: www.factset.com Year-over-year earnings and revenue gains accelerate in the fourth quarter from the third quarter. Consensus calls for […]
December 20, 2024 | The Fed Shocks The Market Triggering an Abrupt Selloff
The U.S. Federal Reserve surprised markets this week with a small rate cut (expected), a forecast for fewer rate cuts next year and higher inflation (very unexpected). This was a more hawkish report than the market expected. The stock market reacted very negatively on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 losing 3 percent in just two […]
December 20, 2024 | Now is the Time to Stockpile Cash
COMMENT: Marty, I don’t know how your computer does it, but it called for high in stocks, gold, and a coming recession. At the WEC, you said rates would decline into 2025, but not dramatically, because of the war. You also said the dollar was not dead. You said Trump would not have clear sailing when […]
December 20, 2024 | Fed’s Frayed Nerves Amid Inflation Fears and Rising Unemployment
There are many clear-eyed insights in this segment. Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research and former Federal Reserve insider, joins the Julia La Roche Show for an in-person interview to discuss why she sees “frayed nerves” at the Federal Reserve about the incoming Trump administration. In this wide-ranging conversation, DiMartino Booth […]
December 19, 2024 | Postal Truck EV Fail – $3B Govt Waste
Governments are eager to spend your tax dollars on useless initiatives to save the planet from global warming. The Biden Administration spent BILLIONS on investing in EV infrastructure that never came to fruition. I spoke on how Biden approved of a $7.5 billion spending package to build EV charging stations throughout the nation, but […]
December 19, 2024 | TM: Bubbles End Badly
As 2024 draws to a close, the mood on Wall Street is very jolly. Stocks are back to trading near all-time highs. Positive sentiment — be it among investors, businesses or consumers — is suddenly spiking. Is such exuberance merited? Should we expect the market’s good times to continue rolling in 2025? Or, is the […]
December 19, 2024 | And This Is BEFORE the Coming Recession
Government finances usually look their best at cyclical peaks when lots of people are working and paying taxes, relatively few are drawing unemployment benefits or welfare, and financial asset prices are way up, thus generating lots of capital gains tax revenue. If a government is ever going to balance its budget, that’s when it happens. […]
December 18, 2024 | Yields and the Loonie Dive While Stock Markets Levitate
Canada’s economy is slumping, along with support for the federal government. So far, the Bank of Canada says it plans to ease policy rates at a slower pace in 2025. The Treasury market is not convinced. Through fits and starts, government bond prices have continued to rise on safety-seeking inflows (yields in a downtrend). The […]