ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
April 1, 2025 | Art of the Collapse, April 2025
Two strange and unprecedented things (“scandals,” “outrages” — it’s hard to know what to call them) are triggering meme-makers as this is written. First, Elon Musk morphed from industrialist to government efficiency crusader, in the process enraging the segment of the population that owns Teslas, leading them to … vandalize Teslas: The other thing was that government […]
April 1, 2025 | Are States & Provinces Destined to Default by 2034?
You have to wonder why we have the most incompetent people in government, perhaps in history. While there is not a single leader in Europe who I would even want to have a drink with or shake hands, we see the same on the LEFT in the United States. No matter how often they […]
April 1, 2025 | Ice Storm For The Ages
It’s hard to imagine how damaging ice storms can be without witnessing them. After six decades of living in the north, this experience was a first for me. Big trees become weapons of mass destruction. There’s still no power or internet in our area. After a full day of sawing, cutting, and dragging tree parts, […]
March 31, 2025 | The Human QE Hangover
Happy Monday Morning! As we learned last week, Canada’s population surge has come to an end. Population growth rose by just 0.15% last quarter, which outside of the 2020 lockdowns was the slowest quarter for population growth since 2017. For the first time in three years, the non-permanent resident cohort outright contracted. More importantly, if […]
March 31, 2025 | Ice Carnage Made in Canada
This weekend’s ice storm hit hard. Since Saturday, we have relied on a generator and intermittent cell service. We’re the lucky ones in that only our yard was decimated by crashing trees. Many people sustained direct hits to their homes. It looks like a war zone. Fortunately, warm air has melted the assailing ice sheets […]
March 31, 2025 | Prophets, Nomads and a Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards A Bloody Climax
“In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. The catalyst will unfold according to a basic Crisis dynamic that underlies all of these scenarios: An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. […]
March 31, 2025 | WHO Cuts Budget by 20% – A Kick to the Great Reset
The World Health Organization admitted that it has “no choice” but to cut its budget substantially. America’s exodus from the organization left the WHO with a budget gap of $600 million for FY2025, and it plans to cut expenditures by 20%. The United States provided 16.3% of all funding from FY2022-2023, amounting to $1.3 […]
March 30, 2025 | Seven Charts That Put the Gold Bull Market in Context
Remember that long, boring stretch where gold couldn’t break resistance at $2,000/oz? Here it is in the context of this century’s bull market — note the definitive breakout in early 2024. What’s driving the bull market? Central bank buying. And what’s driving that? Geopolitics. Emerging market central banks started planning for a post-dollar world when the Ukraine […]
March 30, 2025 | Do Trade Deficits Matter?
Financial market news has seemingly become all tariffs, all the time. The president’s plan, whatever it is, seems to spring from his belief that trade deficits are bad and must be eliminated. Tariffs are just a means to that end. I have a somewhat different view. I think the US trade deficit, in itself, is […]
March 30, 2025 | ‘Golden Era’ Could Face a Deep Valley First
Here’s some cold water on the notion that Trump’s radical trade policies could help bring about an economic golden era. I’d written here last week that punitive tariffs might be the only medicine strong enough to jolt the world into doing honest business. Foreign manufacturers would leap to relocate their plants to the U.S. in […]
March 30, 2025 | The Danger of Traveling with Gold
Two men were pulled over while driving on I-20 in Texas, carrying $250,000 worth of gold bars. US law permits and encourages law enforcement to confiscate assets. Civil asset forfeiture enables the government to simply seize assets and declare that the owner is guilty of money laundering before any due process occurs. “We have […]
March 29, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for March 29, 2025
The S&P: lowest weekly close in seven months The S&P tumbled ~660 points (~11%) from its all-time highs in mid-February to the March 13 lows (pink ellipse), bounced ~275 points (~5%) to this week’s highs, but then dropped ~235 points (~4%) to this week’s close—the lowest weekly close since September 6, 2024 (blue ellipse.) Many analysts […]
March 29, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday March 29th 2025
The Bottom Line Focus next week is on imposition of a 25% tariffs on goods imported into the United States to be announced officially by President Trump on Wednesday April 2nd. Growing political uncertainty related to the tariffs and likely counter tariffs were a major reason for weakness in North American equity indices last week. […]
March 28, 2025 | Trump Tariff War Risks Causing a Recession
President Donald J. Trump surprised the world again Wednesday with new tariffs on automobiles and auto parts. This appears to be in addition to tariffs announced previously and shocked automakers like GM and Ford who make a significant number of vehicles in Mexico and Canada. Is Trump determined to push the U.S. into a recession? […]
March 28, 2025 | The Golden Visa Program Begins
President Trump established the Golden Visa program to attract wealthy immigrants. The program will replace the EB-5 visa program, created in 1990, as a route to American citizenship for those willing to invest $1 million in an American company. Updated criteria now require a $5 million investment for fast-tracked citizenship, and the program has proved to be […]
March 27, 2025 | Canada’s Provincial Trade Barriers
Several readers were surprised to hear that Canada imposes provincial “tariffs” or trade barriers that simply act as tariffs. Canadian politicians have been promoting a marketing campaign against US-imposed tariffs, but must recognize that their own domestic policy is hurting the Canadian economy in a massive way. Canada’s tariff rate on international imports averages 1.4%, […]
March 26, 2025 | US 25% Tariff On Venezuelan Oil Lifts WTI To US$70/b.
President Trump is on the warpath against Venezuela and Iran. Regarding Venezuela he introduced a 25% tariff on any country buying its oil and on that country’s goods sold in the US, if they buy crude from the country after April 2nd. For China with a current tariff of 20% this goes up to 45% if not […]
March 26, 2025 | DDB Macro Update
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Jeremy Szafron of Kitco News to discuss why the U.S. may already be in a private-sector recession. From rising layoffs and corporate bankruptcies to tightening credit and collapsing consumer demand, DiMartino Booth reveals the economic cracks the mainstream continues to miss. Here is a direct […]
March 26, 2025 | The Kallas Plan – Destroy Russia AND Europe
The European External Action Service is intended to ensure diplomacy and peace throughout Europe, but the new head, Kaja Kallas, has been promoting the opposite. “[T]he European Union wants Ukraine to win this war” against Russia, Kallas tweeted out. Her response prompted ten European diplomats to speak out. “She (Kallas) is still acting like a prime […]
March 25, 2025 | TD: Canadian Recession in 2025
TD Economics’ latest Canadian Quarterly Economic Forecast largely comports with our assessment of an incoming Canadian recession. The wildcard is how much government support can soften the depth of the downturn and contain job losses. TD has a hopeful view. Here are the main takeaways: Canada has borne the brunt of President Trump’s tariff action despite having […]
March 25, 2025 | American CFOs Believe Tariffs Will Cause Recession – Confidence is Dying
American businesses are losing confidence in the US economy under Trump due to the tariff wars. CNBC’s CFO Council quarterly survey for Q1 2025 learned that America’s top CFOs are increasingly pessimistic about the economy due to these “disruptive” and “aggressive” tariff policies. Around 60% of respondents believe the US will fall into a […]
March 24, 2025 | Is Carney Going to Put the Final Nail in the Coffin for Canada?
COMMENT: Martin, I am extremely concerned about what is going on in Canada. Max Carnage has called an election in 30days! Elections Canada now needs to find an estimated 285,000 temporary workers. What could possibly go wrong? This is completely insane for what will be arguably the most import election in Canadian History! So many […]
March 24, 2025 | Recession Watch: Cratering Condos and Creeped-Out Consumers
Most of the following charts are from Wolf Street or the Kobeissi letter. Definitely follow those guys. Cratering Condos There’s no way to overstate how crazy US home prices have become. To take just one metric, the median US household income is $79,200, but it takes an annual income of $124,200 to buy the average American house. That’s […]
March 24, 2025 | Wilful Blindness Tends To Be Financially Destructive, In The End
For decades, my mission has been to help individuals with finite lifespans make unvarnished, clear-eyed financial assessments and plans that will serve them well through complete market cycles. Fortunately, we have attracted a strong base of clients who value the approach. But we’re far from mainstream. I am regularly asked to review the portfolios/asset allocations […]
March 24, 2025 | Heading to the Polls
Happy Monday Morning! It’s official, Canadians are heading to the polls on April 28th. Interim PM, Mark Carney has triggered an election, in what will surely be one of the most consequential elections in recent history. The country is caught between a rock and a hard place, fighting multiple battles on different fronts. Not only […]