ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
December 21, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for December 21, 2024
Animal Spirits experience an Icarus Moment as the adrenaline rush from Trump’s election victory fades. The NAZ rallied ~28% from early August lows to this week’s all-time highs, with nearly half the gains made since Trump’s election victory (circled.) The NAZ was up ~60% from October 2023 and was “by far” the best-performing stock index over […]
December 21, 2024 | Kids for Cash Documentary
Joe Biden granted Pennsylvania Judge Michael Conahan clemency. The kids did not receive the same sympathy.
December 21, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday December 21st 2024
The Bottom Line Here comes Santa Claus! Peak period for the “Santa Claus rally” for U.S. and Canadian equity indices is from December 24th to December 31st Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies. Source: www.factset.com Year-over-year earnings and revenue gains accelerate in the fourth quarter from the third quarter. Consensus calls for […]
December 20, 2024 | The Fed Shocks The Market Triggering an Abrupt Selloff
The U.S. Federal Reserve surprised markets this week with a small rate cut (expected), a forecast for fewer rate cuts next year and higher inflation (very unexpected). This was a more hawkish report than the market expected. The stock market reacted very negatively on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 losing 3 percent in just two […]
December 20, 2024 | Now is the Time to Stockpile Cash
COMMENT: Marty, I don’t know how your computer does it, but it called for high in stocks, gold, and a coming recession. At the WEC, you said rates would decline into 2025, but not dramatically, because of the war. You also said the dollar was not dead. You said Trump would not have clear sailing when […]
December 20, 2024 | Fed’s Frayed Nerves Amid Inflation Fears and Rising Unemployment
There are many clear-eyed insights in this segment. Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research and former Federal Reserve insider, joins the Julia La Roche Show for an in-person interview to discuss why she sees “frayed nerves” at the Federal Reserve about the incoming Trump administration. In this wide-ranging conversation, DiMartino Booth […]
December 19, 2024 | Postal Truck EV Fail – $3B Govt Waste
Governments are eager to spend your tax dollars on useless initiatives to save the planet from global warming. The Biden Administration spent BILLIONS on investing in EV infrastructure that never came to fruition. I spoke on how Biden approved of a $7.5 billion spending package to build EV charging stations throughout the nation, but […]
December 19, 2024 | TM: Bubbles End Badly
As 2024 draws to a close, the mood on Wall Street is very jolly. Stocks are back to trading near all-time highs. Positive sentiment — be it among investors, businesses or consumers — is suddenly spiking. Is such exuberance merited? Should we expect the market’s good times to continue rolling in 2025? Or, is the […]
December 19, 2024 | And This Is BEFORE the Coming Recession
Government finances usually look their best at cyclical peaks when lots of people are working and paying taxes, relatively few are drawing unemployment benefits or welfare, and financial asset prices are way up, thus generating lots of capital gains tax revenue. If a government is ever going to balance its budget, that’s when it happens. […]
December 18, 2024 | Yields and the Loonie Dive While Stock Markets Levitate
Canada’s economy is slumping, along with support for the federal government. So far, the Bank of Canada says it plans to ease policy rates at a slower pace in 2025. The Treasury market is not convinced. Through fits and starts, government bond prices have continued to rise on safety-seeking inflows (yields in a downtrend). The […]
December 18, 2024 | The Energy Sector Is Closing In On A Major BUY Signal In The Coming Weeks. More Bargains Are Appearing Daily
Canada’s political circus and slowing economy has dragged the C$ to below US$0.70 (now US$0.6980). It would not surprise me to see it fall to the low of US$0.68 seen in early 2020 or the same level seen in early 2016. Our worst low from the data going back to 1980 was US$0.6186 in early […]
December 18, 2024 | Is Bitcoin 1929 or DOT.COM Bubble All Over Again?
QUESTION: Marty, is it possible we are witnessing the greatest financial trap to unsuspecting global citizens as they ‘build a digital prison’ as many opine OR is this the perfect monetary system that will give opportunity to impoverished nations to rise out of the ashes? We see kids, millenials to Gen X, buying it like […]
December 17, 2024 | Balance Sheet Repair Takes Years
Today on the Jay Martin Show, Jay sits down with Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Intelligence and author of Fed Up. the pair dissect critical economic and geopolitical trends shaping today’s markets. They explore the historic overvaluation of the stock market, rising consumer debt, and the hidden vulnerabilities in the gig economy. Danielle offers […]
December 17, 2024 | Are We Back to “Higher For Longer”?
The Fed is expected to cut interest rates today. But that might be it for a while. Consider: Consumer spending is exceeding expectations: Motor vehicles, online purchases boost US retail sales in November (Reuters) – U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in November amid an acceleration in motor vehicle and online purchases, consistent […]
December 17, 2024 | Chrystia Freeland Flees Trudeau and Tariffs
Canada’s Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned from her federal cabinet position. This may be perhaps the best thing that the Prime Minister has allegedly done for Canada. The fracturing of the left has become a contagion. Freeland shared her resignation letter on social media platform X this Monday. “On Friday, you informed me that you no longer […]
December 16, 2024 | Food Inflation on the Rise
Our models do not indicate that food inflation will ease in 2025. In fact, I have repeatedly warned that people may want to stockpile food for the next two years as there will be weather events and supply chain shortages. Our model warns that we may see another severe drought, probably between 2025 to […]
December 16, 2024 | Whispers of the Bond Market
Happy Monday morning! Homeowners, rejoice! As expected, The Bank of Canada followed through with another jumbo rate cut, slashing the overnight rate by another 50bps, and signalled more to come, albeit at a slower pace. “It has been a tumultuous four-and-a-half years for Canadians, for the Canadian economy. I’m very pleased we’ve got inflation back […]
December 16, 2024 | Optimists Say Don’t Worry About Bubbles, That’s Bad Advice
A house on our street recently sold for $8 million to a buyer in his early 40s. Our mutual tradesperson had the scoop: the guy made his money in Bitcoin. This is his summer house; he lives in Hawaii. On closing, he installed lifts in the garage, stacked them with exotic cars, and put a […]
December 15, 2024 | Pardon for J6 Committee?
Jan. 6 Committee Chairman Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) recently stated that he would accept a preemptive pardon from Joe Biden if it were offered to him. Thompson has not been accused of a crime – yet. So, what is he hiding? Thompson believes his committee did a “wonderful job” investigation January 6. Innocent people do not […]
December 15, 2024 | Demanding Energy
Energy is everything. Or, if Einstein was right, you and I are just energy in material form. Accelerate us to lightspeed squared and we might become something else. All economic activity involves converting energy from one form to another. This requires harnessing sufficient quantities of usable energy. That task is becoming more difficult, to the point economic […]
December 15, 2024 | Which Will Crash First: Stocks or Bitcoin?
I’ll trash bitcoin in a moment — my new hobby — but first a yellow alert for everyone who thinks the stock market’s inevitable collapse is most likely to happen shortly after the first of the year. Although that seems quite plausible, fulfilling popular expectations is not how Mr Market usually works. Think how many […]
December 14, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for December 14, 2024
What would a turning point in Irrational Exuberance look like? Well, for a start: Some analysts say that retail is the most bullish ever. I don’t know how you measure that, but yeah, it feels that way, and retail is gambling on all kinds of crap – exchange-listed or otherwise. The COT data as of […]
December 14, 2024 | Rhyming History: France’s First Hyperinflation
Back in the 1700s, France was ruled by a small group of inbred idiot aristocrats who started a series of ruinously expensive wars (see, history is rhyming already). As the bills came due, there wasn’t enough gold to pay creditors, and the government faced that era’s version of bankruptcy. Then along came a Scottish economist/con […]
December 14, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday December 14th 2024
The Bottom Line Focus is on the FOMC Interest Rate Decision on the Fed Fund Rate released at 2:00 PM EST on Wednesday. Consensus calls for a 0.25% reduction. The S&P 500 Index currently is following its traditional pattern in the month of December: Flat to slightly lower in the first half followed by the […]
December 13, 2024 | Beware Last 2 Weeks of December – Something is Not Right
QUESTION: You said the computer does not support a bullish view of Trump taking office. Do you know why the computer is showing so many indexes are rolling over to the downside? John ANSWER: I strongly suggest that this is the time to pay close attention to Socrates, for this clearly shows that something is seriously […]