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Victor Adair

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Victor Adair, author of The Trading Desk Notes, began trading penny mining shares while attending the University of Victoria in 1970. He worked in the mining business in Canada and the Western United States for the next several years and also founded a precious metals trading company in 1974. He became a commodity broker in 1977 and a stock broker in 1978. Between 1977 and his retirement from the brokerage business in 2020 Victor held a number of trading, analytical and senior management roles in Canada and the USA. Victor started writing market analysis in the late 1970’s and became a widely followed currency analyst in 1983. He started doing frequent media interviews in the early 1980’s and started speaking at financial conferences in the 1990’s. He actively trades his own accounts from The Trading Desk on Vancouver Island. His personal website is www.VictorAdair.ca.

Victor Adair Blog - Fear trumps greed, but volatility is mean-reverting The cash S&P hit 15-month lows on Monday, down ~21% from February’s all-time highs. It then rallied ~13% to Wednesday’s highs as Trump paused tariffs on most countries other than China, where he dramatically increased tariffs. Last week’s big drop and this week’s big gain were among the most […]

Victor Adair Blog - Slowly at first, and then suddenly The cash S&P 500 index closed Friday ~9% below last Friday’s close, with virtually all of those losses coming after Trump’s Liberation Day ceremony. The index is down ~17.5% from mid-February’s record highs, and outside of the covid crash in 2020, the two-day performance on Thursday/Friday was the worst since the […]

Victor Adair Blog - The S&P: lowest weekly close in seven months The S&P tumbled ~660 points (~11%) from its all-time highs in mid-February to the March 13 lows (pink ellipse), bounced ~275 points (~5%) to this week’s highs, but then dropped ~235 points (~4%) to this week’s close—the lowest weekly close since September 6, 2024 (blue ellipse.) Many analysts […]

Victor Adair Blog - Gold hit new highs again this week, up ~$1,000 from year-ago levels Front-month COMEX gold futures rallied to ~$3,065 this week, up over $400 (~15%) from the January 2025 lows, up ~$1,260 (~70%) from the pre-Hamas attack on Israel lows in October 2023 (blue ellipse) and up ~$1,450 (~90%) from the October 2022 lows (pink ellipse.) […]

Victor Adair Blog - Current positioning: I’m long S&P futures as of Friday morning. See My short-term trading section below for more detail. The S&P closed Red for four consecutive weeks The S&P hit all-time highs on July 16, 2024 (the first ellipse), then tumbled ~10% to August 5 lows on the “Yen-carry” scare. The market recovered, traded above the July […]

Victor Adair Blog - Current positioning: On Friday, March 7, I bought the S&P and shorted the Yen, Gold and T-Note calls. I held those positions into the weekend. See the short-term trading section below for more detail. A weaker US Dollar and a weaker US stock market The S&P (my favourite risk barometer) closed lower for three consecutive weeks, […]

Victor Adair Blog - Current positioning: My short-term trading account began this week long TNotes and Yen, short the S&P. I covered the Notes and S&P for good gains mid-week and was stopped for a slight loss on the Yen. I bought the S&P on Friday and held that into the weekend. Equities The S&P touched all-time highs on February 19 (blue […]

Victor Adair Blog - Current positioning: My short-term trading account is short the S&P, long T-Notes, and long Yen. S&P futures traded at record highs on Wednesday but fell ~2.25% to Friday’s lows Friday’s break was the most significant drop since December 18, when the Fed cut 25 bps but hinted it was unlikely to cut again soon. Since […]

Victor Adair Blog - Back in the saddle again An apology: I have been unable to post the Trading Desk Notes for the past two days due to a frustrating firewall problem. I’m grateful that my tech guys were able to fix it, but it serves as a reminder that things can go haywire in our digital world!   […]

Victor Adair Blog - THIS IS NOT A DRILL It was a hectic week in the markets, but two events were especially significant: 1) The spot S&P traded to all-time highs last Friday, January 25, but the S&P futures gapped lower Sunday afternoon and fell hard early Monday on the DeepSeek story (blue ellipse) and 2) The S&P rallied all week from […]

Victor Adair Blog - Rising bond yields are weighing on the stock market but have boosted the US dollar 30-year Treasury yields hit a 15-month high of 5% following Friday’s stronger-than-expected employment report. Since September 2024, the Fed has cut short rates by 100 bps, but bond yields have risen ~100 bps on concerns that continuing government deficit spending will sustain […]

Victor Adair Blog - Will the stock market’s “Trump Bump” be sustained? The S&P sold off ahead of the November 5th election, rallied on election day (circle on the chart), gapped sharply higher the day after the election, and then rallied to record highs in early December. The market drifted sideways near all-time highs for ten trading sessions in early December […]

Victor Adair Blog - Animal Spirits experience an Icarus Moment as the adrenaline rush from Trump’s election victory fades. The NAZ rallied ~28% from early August lows to this week’s all-time highs, with nearly half the gains made since Trump’s election victory (circled.) The NAZ was up ~60% from October 2023 and was “by far” the best-performing stock index over […]

Victor Adair Blog - What would a turning point in Irrational Exuberance look like? Well, for a start: Some analysts say that retail is the most bullish ever. I don’t know how you measure that, but yeah, it feels that way, and retail is gambling on all kinds of crap – exchange-listed or otherwise.   The COT data as of […]

Victor Adair Blog - Tech stocks led the indices higher this week. AAPL hit new record highs, up ~11% in a month and ~50% in eight months. TSLA had another good week, up ~56% since the election and 2.8X in the last eight months. AMZN is at record highs, up ~15% since the election and ~50% in the last four […]

Victor Adair Blog - Trump shocks markets: he will hit Canada and Mexico with 25% tariffs on ALL exports On Monday afternoon, November 25, Trump announced that on his first day as President, he would levy 25% tariffs on ALL imports from Canada and Mexico – if they did not halt the flow of illegal migrants and dangerous drugs into the […]

Victor Adair Blog - American exceptionalism: US stocks have hugely outperformed the rest of the world. The S&P is up ~46% from its October 2023 lows. It jumped ~5% during election week, the biggest weekly gain YTD, corrected a bit last week and rallied again this week. The NAZ is up ~51% from October 2023 lows. The NAZ has […]

Victor Adair Blog - Stock indices, interest rates, and the USD rose sharply last week following Trump’s victory. This week, stock indices fell, interest rates rose, and the USD soared to 12-month highs. NAZ futures hit record highs during the Sunday overnight session, up ~6.5% from election-day (circled) lows, but gave back ~63% of those gains by Friday’s close. SOXX […]

Victor Adair Blog - US stock indices soared on Trump’s victory—the DJIA, S&P, and NAZ rallied to new record highs this week. The S&P and the DJIA hit record highs in mid-October but then trended lower into month-end, perhaps de-risking ahead of the election. On election day (ellipse), the indices were bid aggressively from the opening bell, soared in the […]

Victor Adair Blog - Bond yields have risen sharply since the Fed cut short rates on September 18. When the Fed cut rates in September, the 10-year yield was ~3.6%, an 18-month low. It was ~80 bps higher at 4.4% at Friday’s close. In October 2023, the yield was ~5%, a 16-year high. In this daily chart of the 10-year […]

Victor Adair Blog - US interest rates have surged higher since September 18, when the Fed cut short rates by 50 bps. US 2-year yields were near a 22-month low of ~3.63% on September 18 but closed this week at ~4.12%. In this chart of 2-year Treasury futures, the blue ellipse is September 18, and the black ellipse is October […]

Victor Adair Blog - The leading North American stock indices are at record highs The S&P has closed higher for 9 of the last 10 weeks, rising ~14% from its early August lows. The index is up ~22% YTD, ~41% from year-ago lows, and ~65% from two year-ago lows. It has closed higher for 11 of the last 12 […]

Victor Adair Blog - Traders are more interested in the market’s reaction to news than the news itself. This week’s news flow felt like a tsunami after the dog days of summer, but for the markets I trade, the big news was the monetary and fiscal stimulus in China, the acceleration of Israeli attacks on Hezbollah, and the shift in […]

Victor Adair Blog - The Fed cut 50; here’s a quick take on how different markets reacted The Notes will be brief this week. I’m hosting the Moneytalks show and playing in the Oceanside Special Olympics golf tournament, and we’ve got a houseful of guests who will be golfing with me.   The golf tournament is fully booked, which […]

Victor Adair Blog - The S&P had its best week of the year this week; last week, it had its worst week in 18 months. Do you want to bet on next week? The S&P fell ~4% last week and bounced back ~4% this week. The S&P ended last week right on its lows. It rallied back on Monday […]
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