Howestreet.com - the source for market opinions

ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION

Steve Saretsky

Guest's Website

Steve Saretsky is a Vancouver residential Realtor and author behind one of Vancouver’s most popular real estate blogs, Vancity Condo Guide. Steve is widely considered a thought leader in the industry with regular appearances on BNN, CBC, CKNW, CTV and as a contributor to BC Business Magazine. Steve provides advisory services to banks, hedge funds, developers, and various types of investors.

November 29th, 2022 | One Fell Swoop of The Pen

Steve Saretsky Blog - Last week we highlighted some recent data from Desjardins which noted that nearly every borrower who took out a fixed payment variable rate mortgage during the pandemic now owes more in interest than their original fixed payment. Trigger rates galore. It appears the Bank of Canada is finally coming around to the same conclusion. In a research […]

Steve Saretsky Blog - No bottom yet. Data published by CREA last week showed national house prices slid lower in the month of October, dropping 1.2% month-over-month. The national home price index is now down 15% since peaking in March earlier this year, the steepest correction on record since the index was created in 2005. Just for comparison sake, […]

The Saretsky Report - As we expected and discussed in last months report, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates another 50bps in October. Markets were pricing in a 75bps rate hike but the Bank of Canada failed to deliver, citing growing concerns around financial stability. It’s the first time in awhile they have flagged financial stability concerns, which […]

November 1st, 2022 | Runaway Freight Trains

Steve Saretsky Blog - The Bank of Canada raised rates by another 50bps this past week, pushing prime rate to 5.95% and inflicting more pain on variable rate mortgage holders. We’ll circle back to that in a second. What’s important to note here is markets were fully pricing in a 75bps rate hike from the Bank of Canada and […]

October 25th, 2022 | The Beatings Will Continue

Steve Saretsky Blog - Inflation in Canada slowed less than expected, growing by 6.9% year-over-year in September, economist expectations were at 6.7%. A small miss that will have big ramifications. Markets immediately repriced Bank of Canada rate hike odds for October 26th, now expecting another jumbo 75bps rate hike. In other words, the beatings will continue until morale improves. […]

The Saretsky Report - It was another slow month for the Greater Vancouver housing market in September. While housing activity was historically low, there is still much to talk about across the housing spectrum. The volatility across global financial markets has been extreme and that is no doubt having a major influence on our local housing market. Interest rates […]

Steve Saretsky Blog - The closely watched US Consumer price index surprised to the upside last week. Consumer prices rose by 0.4% in September, and while inflation is decelerating, down to 8.2% year-over-year, it remains extremely elevated. The recent advance was broad based, with Shelter, food and medical care being the largest contributors. Shelter inflation is surging, at least […]

October 11th, 2022 | Waiting For a Pivot

Steve Saretsky Blog - More housing data trickling out of Canada’s two largest major metros. Greater Vancouver home sales fell 46% year-over-year. It was one of the slowest Septembers on record, other than 2008, 2012, and 2018. Prices are still moving lower, albeit mostly in suburban markets which saw excessive price gains during the pandemic. For example, the median […]

September 26th, 2022 | Getting Aligned

Steve Saretsky Blog - Another massive week in the rates market with the US Federal Reserve jacking rates up another 75bps. While this was expected, it was the stark comments from Jerome Powell that really shook markets. Powell basically, in a polite way, said Americans need to endure some economic pain, including job loss, to slow demand and get […]

September 19th, 2022 | Bringing Down The House

Steve Saretsky Blog - Higher interest rates continue to slow the nations housing market. National home sales, as reported by CREA, fell 25% year-over-year in the month of August. It was also the sixth consecutive monthly decline in home sales. While new listings remain weak as sellers resist selling at recent valuations, inventory is still climbing and prices continue […]

Steve Saretsky Blog - As expected, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates another 75bps this past week. The overnight rate is now up a whopping 300bps year to date, the quickest tightening of monetary policy on a percentage basis since the 1980’s. While there was no additional commentary from BoC Governor Tiff Macklem, the official press release notes, […]

The Saretsky Report - There’s always lots to talk about in the Vancouver housing market, especially these days. We have plenty of updates this month on interest rates, trigger rates, and the investor/ rental market. Housing activity remains on the same course it’s been on over the past few months. Greater Vancouver home sales dropped 40% y/y in August. […]

Steve Saretsky Blog - Canada’s second quarter GDP came in at 3.3% annualized rate, below economists forecasts of 4.4% and below the Bank of Canada’s own estimate of 4%. While weaker than expected, that won’t prevent the Bank of Canada from delivering a super sized rate hike this week on September 07th. Markets are still pricing in a 75bps […]

August 29th, 2022 | Floating Rates

Steve Saretsky Blog - Canadian banks reported quarterly earnings this past week. One thing was clear, loan loss provisions are increasing, albeit from very low levels. Banks are preparing for more turbulence ahead, as highlighted by comments from Canada’s largest bank, RBC. The bank says interest rate hikes may trigger higher monthly payments for 80,000 customers with variable rate mortgages. […]

August 23rd, 2022 | Housing and Soft Landings

Steve Saretsky Blog - Inflation has likely peaked from a rate of change perspective, dropping to 7.6% year-over-year in July, down from 8.1% in June. However, we are far from out of the woods. What’s interesting here are the comments from Bank of Canada Governor, Tiff Macklem, immediately following the release. It’s not often you see the Bank of […]

August 16th, 2022 | No Renewal For You

Steve Saretsky Blog - Desjardins is joining a growing chorus of housing bears, calling for further price declines in the nations housing market this year. The bank is now calling for a 25% drop from peak to trough in the average sales price nationally. Keep in mind the average sales price is skewed predominantly by the GTA, and a change […]

The Saretsky Report - Continuing on the theme from last month, housing activity continues to slow as expected when the Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 100bps last month and instantly reduced borrowers purchasing power. Remember, over 50% of new mortgage applicants this year have been going with variable rate mortgages, in large part to dodge the pain […]

August 8th, 2022 | No New Couches

Steve Saretsky Blog - As discussed last week, our early indicators pointed to Greater Vancouver home sales falling to a 22 year low in home sales for July. The Real Estate board has officially confirmed the precipitous decline. July sales were also 35% below the ten year average, and the typical price of a home is now down 4.5% […]

August 3rd, 2022 | Bond Yields are Responding

Steve Saretsky Blog - The worlds most important central bank, the US Federal Reserve, raised rates another 75bps this past week. The following day, second quarter GDP contracted 0.9%, marking the second straight quarter of contracting economic growth. While policy makers are not officially calling it a recession, we are arguably in one already. As highlighted by the always […]

Steve Saretsky Blog - Another month, another record inflation print. Canada’s CPI inflation printed 8.1%, the highest level since January 1983. The silver lining is this was actually lower than market expectations of 8.4%, sending bond yields lower on the premise that inflation is likely peaking and a recession is becoming nearly inevitable if we aren’t in one already. […]

The Saretsky Report - I’m a bit later than usual in writing this report and it’s probably for the best. As of this writing on July 13th, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates a monstrous 100bps, the single largest increase since 1998. This will have significant ramifications for the housing market, not just psychologically but financially.

July 18th, 2022 | Front Loading

Steve Saretsky Blog - Another month, another jumbo sized rate hike from the Bank of Canada. Tiff Macklem and crew surprised markets with a 100bps rate hike, the largest move since 1998 when the central bank was trying to support a weak Loonie. It was just two years ago when the Bank of Canada was rather irresponsible in encouraging […]

July 4th, 2022 | Flushed Down the Toilet

Steve Saretsky Blog - As per Stats Canada, activity at the offices of real estate agents and brokers dropped 15.0% in April, the largest contraction since April 2020. That was in April, so you can only imagine how the data will look in the coming months. Recent sales figures in Canada’s two largest major metros suggest this bear market […]

June 27th, 2022 | Cash for Renters

Steve Saretsky Blog - Another month, another record inflation print here in the Great White North. Headline inflation in Canada ticked up to 7.7% year-over-year in May, a 39 year high. Shelter, which is the largest component of the CPI basket also moved higher, up 7.4% from last year. Of course if you’re relocating in the rental market or […]

Steve Saretsky Blog - Over the past several weeks regular readers of this newsletter have heard me rant about the impending slowdown in the development space. A combo of rising financing costs and still elevated construction costs makes for a rather terrible risk/reward ratio for home builders. In fact, it makes some projects economically unfeasible. Mainstream media is now […]
« Previous Page — Next Page »