ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
Steve Saretsky
Steve Saretsky is a Vancouver residential Realtor and author behind one of Vancouver’s most popular real estate blogs, Vancity Condo Guide. Steve is widely considered a thought leader in the industry with regular appearances on BNN, CBC, CKNW, CTV and as a contributor to BC Business Magazine. Steve provides advisory services to banks, hedge funds, developers, and various types of investors.
September 11th, 2023 | It Tastes Awful, and it Works
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! The Bank of Canada moved to the sidelines once again, appeasing premiers in BC & Ontario who publicly pleaded with the BoC last week. It’s no secret these two provinces have the most to lose, their coffers largely built on a highly levered housing market, but we’ll get to that in a […]
September 4th, 2023 | Happy Monday Morning!
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! A few weeks ago we summarized the cabinet shuffle, arguing the replacement of both the housing minister and immigration minister was simply rearring deck chairs on the Titanic. When new immigration minister Marc Miller was repeatedly questioned about rampant immigration putting strains on infrastructure and housing, he noted, “I don’t see a world […]
August 28th, 2023 | Tug of War
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday morning! This newsletter has been covering three big themes in the Canadian housing sector this year. In no particular order they are as follows, excessive immigration exacerbating a housing crisis, higher mortgage rates ironically trapping people in their homes, and the destruction of new housing supply brought forth by a trippling of interest […]
August 21st, 2023 | Affordability Hell
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! Headline CPI inflation surprised to the upside this past week, pushing back up to 3.3% and well above market expectations of 3%. However, those who have been following along here will know the importance of base effects. When headline inflation fell to 2.8% last month we were quick to highlight some research […]
August 14th, 2023 | Deck Chairs on the Titanic
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! It’s been a few weeks now since the Trudeau government shuffled his cabinet ministers, naming both a new housing minsiter and a new immigration minister. However, as we discussed a few weeks ago in my piece, Same Faces, Different Places, nothing has fundamentally changed. These are the same people, and the same policy […]
July 31st, 2023 | Same Faces, Different Places
The Saretsky Report - Happy Monday Morning! The Trudeau liberals shuffled the deck this past week, replacing several key cabinet positions. Amongst those moves was a change of the housing minister. Ahmed Hussen is out, which should not come as a surprise given house prices have doubled under the current government, with an election not far away. Hussen’s track […]
July 24th, 2023 | A Price to Pay
The Saretsky Report - Happy Monday Morning! CPI headline inflation came in lower than expected this past week. Markets were calling for 3% and we got 2.8%, a pleasant surprise and back to its lowest levels since March 2021. Perhaps the 475bps of rate hikes are finally starting to work their way through the system? We are back within […]
July 17th, 2023 | Trapped
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! As expected, the Bank of Canada tightened the screws once again, jacking rates up another 25bps, and bringing the overnight rate to 5%, its highest level since 2001. “It’s working,” Macklem said in an exclusive interview with The Globe and Mail on Wednesday, several hours after raising borrowing costs for the 10th time […]
July 10th, 2023 | Healthy Cleansing
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! There are growing concerns about the state of variable rate mortgage holders across the country. At this point nearly everyone who’s on a variable rate mortgage has essentially hit their trigger rate. It’s become front page news, and rightfully so. Unfortunately this story isn’t going away anytime soon, as Tiff Macklem and […]
July 3rd, 2023 | The Clock is Ticking
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! Headline inflation dropped like a stone in the month of May, now down to 3.4%. Mortgage interest costs surged 30% and remains the largest contributor to the year-over-year CPI increase. Strip out self inflicted mortgage interest cost, and CPI sits at 2.5% in May, back within the Bank of Canada’s control range […]
June 26th, 2023 | There Will be Blood
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! Perhaps one of the most fascinating stories of the year has been the resiliency in the nations housing market. Prices have bounced sharply since the depths of the 2022 bear market, surprising even the housing bulls. This is no bueno for the Bank of Canada who is desperately trying to reign in […]
June 19th, 2023 | Credit Slump
The Saretsky Report - Happy Monday Morning! As mentioned in last weeks note, the great big housing boom is over. You see housing booms need credit, lots of it, to keep the wheels churning. The single largest driver of home prices over the past few years has been cheap and abundant credit. When money is basically free you tend to […]
June 12th, 2023 | The Firm Grip of Tiff Macklem
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! The Scotia guy was right, and the Bank of Canada delivered with another rate hike. It was only 25bps but the signal sent shockwaves through the bond market. It’s incredibly rare for a central bank to raise rates, pause, and then start hiking again. Pauses are almost always met with inevitable rate […]
June 5th, 2023 | Sacrificial Lambs
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! The Canadian economy grew at an annualized pace of 3.1% in the first quarter, surprising to the upside and trumping the Bank of Canada’s growth forecasts. Four hundred basis points and the economy still hasn’t rolled over. This is prompting calls for the Bank of Canada to move off the sidelines […]
May 29th, 2023 | Money at Stake
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! The blistering hot spring market, which has been plagued by a twenty year low in new listings across the country is finally starting to simmer. This is welcoming news for home buyers, whom instead of competing with six other buyers might only have to compete with three other groups on offer night. […]
May 22nd, 2023 | No Need to Panic, Yet
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! Inflation came in hotter than expected in April. Headline inflation ticked in at 4.4%, well above the 4.1% that was expected. It was the first month over month increase in the rate of headline inflation since June 2022. Naturally, panic ensured shortly thereafter. Markets immediately removed their expectations for a rate cut […]
May 15th, 2023 | Nowhere to Hide
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! Anyone following this newsletter since about January knows that the housing market has surged back to life. Inventory has fallen off a cliff at the same time buyer sentiment has rebounded, coinciding with the BoC’s Tiff Macklem taking his foot off the gas. In the GTA, home sales ripped 27% month-over-month in […]
May 8th, 2023 | Moral Victories
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! We get readers of all stripes on this newsletter. Policy makers, bankers, property developers, and every day people trying to figure out what’s going on in the crazy world of Real Estate up north. We’ve hit nearly seven thousand subscribers now which i’m incredibly grateful for. I’m not sure if David Rosenberg […]
May 1st, 2023 | Cigarettes and Housing
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! We’ve talked a lot about the recent mismatch between population growth in this country and the ability to deliver enough new housing supply to not only meet demand but actually moderate price growth. Housing is all about supply and demand after all. We’ve tried to obliterate demand but it seemingly won’t go […]
April 24th, 2023 | Sentiment
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! We’ve talked a lot about immigration. Remember, the Feds targeted 430,000 permanent residents in 2022 and hit those with ease. Those targets have been set even higher moving forward. However, the real issue here is these figures do not include non-permanent residents. It seems strange to omit these people considering the fact […]
April 17th, 2023 | Suckers Rally?
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! For the first time in a year Canadian home prices ticked higher. Monthly data published by CREA noted a very modest 0.2% month over month increase in national home prices. Source: Ben Rabidoux However, regular readers here know this has been ongoing for several months now. Prices in most major markets, across […]
April 10th, 2023 | Missing Middle
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! A few weeks ago I wrote a post called Everything is a Choice. I argued that many of the housing issues we are facing today are policy decisions. They are choices made by elected officials. Whether it be interest rates, immigration policy, taxes, mortgage underwriting standards, or municipal zoning. Many of these issues […]
April 3rd, 2023 | Dissenting
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! Everywhere you scroll these days there is some debate about the housing mess, people arguing on social media, all levels of government pointing fingers and blaming each other for the housing crisis. “Vote for me and i’ll fix housing.” It is all political theatre. Case in point for those following along at […]
March 27th, 2023 | Everything is a Choice
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! Many of the issues we are facing today are policy decisions. They are choices made by elected officials. While I believe most policy makers are well intentioned it doesn’t mean we should not hold them accountable when mistakes are made. After all, elected officials are put in place to serve the best […]
March 20th, 2023 | Gone Missing
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! National housing data dropped for the month of February, and there’s a lot to unpack here. Home sales plunged 40% year-over-year in February, coming off a blistering hot market this time last year. When you zoom out further it was the weakest February since 2009. However, there’s a caveat. New listings utterly […]