ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
Steve Saretsky
Steve Saretsky is a Vancouver residential Realtor and author behind one of Vancouver’s most popular real estate blogs, Vancity Condo Guide. Steve is widely considered a thought leader in the industry with regular appearances on BNN, CBC, CKNW, CTV and as a contributor to BC Business Magazine. Steve provides advisory services to banks, hedge funds, developers, and various types of investors.
January 29th, 2024 | Kneecapped
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! As expected, the Bank of Canada maintained rates at 5% this past week. While Tiff pushed back on rate cut talk, he did leave us with some clues. “If the economy evolves broadly in line with the projection we published today, I expect future discussions will be about how long we maintain […]
January 22nd, 2024 | No solutions, Only Trade Offs
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! Tiff Macklem and the Bank of Canada are on deck this week. While they’re largely expected to remain on hold, Canadian households suffocating under the weight of higher interest payments will be looking for clues for when relief can be expected. The real estate market will be doing the same, it has […]
January 15th, 2024 | Two Year Warning
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! We’ve talked a lot about immigration in this newsletter over the past couple of years. Immigration in Canada has always been considered an economic strength, the fact that people want to move here in large numbers is a testament to the desirability of this great nation. However, in recent years something has […]
January 8th, 2024 | The Fate of the Housing Market
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! We’re back after a two week hiatus, hope everyone had an enjoyable holidays. I’m back in the saddle and gearing up for what will surely be an entertaining year ahead. I have seen a plethora of predictions for 2024, from soft landings to no landings, rate hikes to rate cuts, and everything […]
December 18th, 2023 | Circling the Drain
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday morning! The worlds largest and most important central bank shook financial markets this past week, signalling rate cuts are now on the table next year. The feds dot plots, which are basically forecasts from fed members point to three rate cuts in 2024. Markets are currently expecting six!! Source: Jim Bianco Suffice to […]
December 11th, 2023 | For Better or for Worse
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! In last weeks note we highlighted the BC Governments passing of bill 44 which effectively stripped municipalities of their zoning power by eliminating single family zoning, and requiring high-density development next to transit. The magnitude of these changes should not be understated. This is perhaps the single largest housing policy change in the history […]
December 4th, 2023 | Rate Cuts and Density
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! On the heels of inflation slowing to 3.1% last week, we got more evidence rate hikes are indeed working through the system. Demand continues to weaken, households have stopped borrowing money, and as a result, the economy is circling the drain. GDP fell at an annualized pace of 1.1% in Q3, well […]
November 27th, 2023 | More Firing than Hiring
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! Consumer prices eased in October, clocking in at 3.1% year-over-year, and down from 3.8% last month. This is welcome news for mortgage holders sweating over upcoming mortgage renewals. For Bank of Canada watchers, the BoC’s closely watched 3 month average core inflation measure dropped to 2.95%. We are getting close. Mortgage interest […]
November 20th, 2023 | Here Comes the Kitchen Sink
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! The Canadian housing market is a funny thing. Despite a constant barrage of policy measures hoping to fix the crisis, affordability continues to deteriorate. As affordability issues deepen, policy measures are becoming more aggressive. Just to recap, over the past few years various levels of government have introduced a foreign buyers tax, […]
November 13th, 2023 | Leaving a Mark
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! It’s been a busy twelve months for David Eby. The premier of BC has launched a barrage of policies aimed at remedying the provinces housing crisis, currently grappling with the worst housing affordability since the 1980’s. For those keeping score at home, here’s a quick summary: Eliminate rental restriction bylaws in all […]
November 6th, 2023 | Weak Hands
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! Let’s address the elephant in the room. I sent out this tweet last week and it went viral. I can’t comment on who it is, for obvious reasons, so please stop asking. Although it really shouldn’t come as a surprise that a developer with a large construction pipeline is suddenly feeling the […]
October 30th, 2023 | Structural Issues
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! As expected, the Bank of Canada held interest rates at 5% for the second consecutive time. BoC’s Macklem flagged everything we’ve been highlighting in this newsletter for several months now. Weaker economic growth and a recent surge in global bond yields is doing most of the tightening for them. Adding, “The path […]
October 23rd, 2023 | Bell Ringer
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! It’s a big week for Canadian households living on the edge. The Bank of Canada is poised to meet on Wednesday to deliver an update on their rate hiking crusade. It is largely expected they’ll remain on the sidelines, as they should given the slew of weak economic data in recent weeks. […]
October 16th, 2023 | The Vortex
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! At the beginning of the year I was part of a real estate pannel with REW on the state of the Vancouver housing market. On stage, in front of a live audience, the moderator asked me for my forecast for 2023. I promplty noted at the time that “we’re going to have a year […]
October 2nd, 2023 | The Naughty List
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! The housing crisis in this country gets a lot of attention, as it should. Fixing it, however, is proving to be rather difficult. Over the past several years we have attempted to beat demand over the head with a blunt instrument. The list of policy measures include, a foreign buyers tax, […]
September 25th, 2023 | Captain Tiff
The Saretsky Report - Happy Monday Morning! Headline inflation ripped higher than expected this week, jumping back up to 4% for the month of August. It turns out Chrystia Freeland’s premature victory lap marked the bottom back in June. There’s a lesson here in base effects, you’d think her economics team would have tapped her on the shoulder back […]
September 18th, 2023 | Play Ball
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! Over the past several months we’ve been highlighting the marked slowdown in residential building permits, a leading indicator of future supply. This is what happens when the cost of capital doubles, and in some cases, triples. Souce: Ben Rabidoux This is a disaster in the making for a federal government insistent on […]
September 11th, 2023 | It Tastes Awful, and it Works
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! The Bank of Canada moved to the sidelines once again, appeasing premiers in BC & Ontario who publicly pleaded with the BoC last week. It’s no secret these two provinces have the most to lose, their coffers largely built on a highly levered housing market, but we’ll get to that in a […]
September 4th, 2023 | Happy Monday Morning!
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! A few weeks ago we summarized the cabinet shuffle, arguing the replacement of both the housing minister and immigration minister was simply rearring deck chairs on the Titanic. When new immigration minister Marc Miller was repeatedly questioned about rampant immigration putting strains on infrastructure and housing, he noted, “I don’t see a world […]
August 28th, 2023 | Tug of War
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday morning! This newsletter has been covering three big themes in the Canadian housing sector this year. In no particular order they are as follows, excessive immigration exacerbating a housing crisis, higher mortgage rates ironically trapping people in their homes, and the destruction of new housing supply brought forth by a trippling of interest […]
August 21st, 2023 | Affordability Hell
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! Headline CPI inflation surprised to the upside this past week, pushing back up to 3.3% and well above market expectations of 3%. However, those who have been following along here will know the importance of base effects. When headline inflation fell to 2.8% last month we were quick to highlight some research […]
August 14th, 2023 | Deck Chairs on the Titanic
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! It’s been a few weeks now since the Trudeau government shuffled his cabinet ministers, naming both a new housing minsiter and a new immigration minister. However, as we discussed a few weeks ago in my piece, Same Faces, Different Places, nothing has fundamentally changed. These are the same people, and the same policy […]
July 31st, 2023 | Same Faces, Different Places
The Saretsky Report - Happy Monday Morning! The Trudeau liberals shuffled the deck this past week, replacing several key cabinet positions. Amongst those moves was a change of the housing minister. Ahmed Hussen is out, which should not come as a surprise given house prices have doubled under the current government, with an election not far away. Hussen’s track […]
July 24th, 2023 | A Price to Pay
The Saretsky Report - Happy Monday Morning! CPI headline inflation came in lower than expected this past week. Markets were calling for 3% and we got 2.8%, a pleasant surprise and back to its lowest levels since March 2021. Perhaps the 475bps of rate hikes are finally starting to work their way through the system? We are back within […]
July 17th, 2023 | Trapped
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! As expected, the Bank of Canada tightened the screws once again, jacking rates up another 25bps, and bringing the overnight rate to 5%, its highest level since 2001. “It’s working,” Macklem said in an exclusive interview with The Globe and Mail on Wednesday, several hours after raising borrowing costs for the 10th time […]