ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
Steve Saretsky
Steve Saretsky is a Vancouver residential Realtor and author behind one of Vancouver’s most popular real estate blogs, Vancity Condo Guide. Steve is widely considered a thought leader in the industry with regular appearances on BNN, CBC, CKNW, CTV and as a contributor to BC Business Magazine. Steve provides advisory services to banks, hedge funds, developers, and various types of investors.
May 20th, 2024 | The Lost Decade
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! It’s a big week for central bank watchers and debt holders alike. The CPI report for the month of April drops tomorrow, it’s the last CPI before the Bank of Canada meets on June 05. Markets are currently pricing in just shy of 50% odds that Tiff cuts in June. It’s a […]
May 13th, 2024 | Happy Monday morning!
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday morning! The labour market in Canada has weakened but hasn’t cracked, at least not yet. The economy added 90,000 jobs in the month of April, far surpassing all forecasts while also marking the largest employment increase in more than a year. What a pickle for the Bank of Canada. Rate cut expectations continue […]
May 6th, 2024 | Balance Sheet Woes
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! The housing market is taking an early turn, cooling swiftly in the month of April. The month of April usually marks the middle of the busy spring selling season so it’s rather unusual to see things fizzle out this early. The problem wasn’t so much that home sales were weak, up from […]
April 29th, 2024 | Happy Monday Morning!
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday morning! Last week we wrote about the big lie, the federal government claims they are going to build 3.9 million homes over the next seven years. Remember that’s 1528 homes per day, or 64 homes per hour for 7 straight years, no weekends off. So unless the homes look like this, I have some […]
April 22nd, 2024 | Two Big Lies
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! We typically try to steer clear of politics in these weekly musings. However, there were two big lies told by the Trudeau government this past week, both of which relate back to housing, the key focus of my work. The federal budget announced this past week brought no reduction in spending, shocking […]
April 15th, 2024 | Pie in the Sky
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! The federal government will unveil their budget this Tuesday, ironically on the same day CPI data drops. They’ve already promoted billions of dollars in new spending in pre-budget announcements. Including more than $21B allocated to housing, which we discussed last week. In essence, the feds are paying for zoning. If provinces commit to […]
April 8th, 2024 | Zoning for Cash
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! It’s budget season, and the fiscal taps are wide open, flush with new promises and billions in new spending. This will make life more difficult for Macklem and friends at the Bank of Canada who are still fighting the last mile on inflation. They’re on deck this week, no cut expected. It […]
April 1st, 2024 | Productivity Emergency
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! The Canadian population ballooned by nearly 1.3 million in 2023, Stats Canada reported this past week. The expansion was fuelled largely by the arrival of temporary residents, which include international students, asylum seekers and people in Canada on work permits. Last year, their ranks grew by slightly more than 800,000, according to […]
March 25th, 2024 | The Immigration Relief Valve
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! Housing affordability is front and center these days, as it should be. We are currently sitting at the worst levels of housing affordability since the 1980s. If housing doesn’t get fixed, and quickly, the political careers of JT and his liberals are finished. With the next federal election less than eighteen months […]
March 19th, 2024 | Housing Wealth
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! In what seems like a recurring theme of late, inflation came in hotter than expected in the US this past week. Consumer prices increased 0.4% for the month and 3.2% from a year ago. Meanwhile, core CPI rose 0.4% on the month and was up 3.8% year-over-year. The last mile on getting […]
March 5th, 2024 | Sheltering in Place
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! As expected, the Bank of Canada held rates firm last week, pushing back on a growing chorus of market pundits calling for rate cuts. “The assessment of the governing council is that we need to give higher interest rates more time to do their work.” The persistence of core inflation north of […]
March 4th, 2024 | Vacancy Control
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! Last week we introduced the home flipping tax. A seductive new tax introduced by the BC Government that will hit evil speculators with a 20% tax on any profits derived from flipping a property within two years. Remember this new tax comes on top of the tax CRA already collects which, for […]
January 29th, 2024 | Kneecapped
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! As expected, the Bank of Canada maintained rates at 5% this past week. While Tiff pushed back on rate cut talk, he did leave us with some clues. “If the economy evolves broadly in line with the projection we published today, I expect future discussions will be about how long we maintain […]
January 22nd, 2024 | No solutions, Only Trade Offs
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! Tiff Macklem and the Bank of Canada are on deck this week. While they’re largely expected to remain on hold, Canadian households suffocating under the weight of higher interest payments will be looking for clues for when relief can be expected. The real estate market will be doing the same, it has […]
January 15th, 2024 | Two Year Warning
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! We’ve talked a lot about immigration in this newsletter over the past couple of years. Immigration in Canada has always been considered an economic strength, the fact that people want to move here in large numbers is a testament to the desirability of this great nation. However, in recent years something has […]
January 8th, 2024 | The Fate of the Housing Market
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! We’re back after a two week hiatus, hope everyone had an enjoyable holidays. I’m back in the saddle and gearing up for what will surely be an entertaining year ahead. I have seen a plethora of predictions for 2024, from soft landings to no landings, rate hikes to rate cuts, and everything […]
December 18th, 2023 | Circling the Drain
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday morning! The worlds largest and most important central bank shook financial markets this past week, signalling rate cuts are now on the table next year. The feds dot plots, which are basically forecasts from fed members point to three rate cuts in 2024. Markets are currently expecting six!! Source: Jim Bianco Suffice to […]
December 11th, 2023 | For Better or for Worse
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! In last weeks note we highlighted the BC Governments passing of bill 44 which effectively stripped municipalities of their zoning power by eliminating single family zoning, and requiring high-density development next to transit. The magnitude of these changes should not be understated. This is perhaps the single largest housing policy change in the history […]
December 4th, 2023 | Rate Cuts and Density
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! On the heels of inflation slowing to 3.1% last week, we got more evidence rate hikes are indeed working through the system. Demand continues to weaken, households have stopped borrowing money, and as a result, the economy is circling the drain. GDP fell at an annualized pace of 1.1% in Q3, well […]
November 27th, 2023 | More Firing than Hiring
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! Consumer prices eased in October, clocking in at 3.1% year-over-year, and down from 3.8% last month. This is welcome news for mortgage holders sweating over upcoming mortgage renewals. For Bank of Canada watchers, the BoC’s closely watched 3 month average core inflation measure dropped to 2.95%. We are getting close. Mortgage interest […]
November 20th, 2023 | Here Comes the Kitchen Sink
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! The Canadian housing market is a funny thing. Despite a constant barrage of policy measures hoping to fix the crisis, affordability continues to deteriorate. As affordability issues deepen, policy measures are becoming more aggressive. Just to recap, over the past few years various levels of government have introduced a foreign buyers tax, […]
November 13th, 2023 | Leaving a Mark
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! It’s been a busy twelve months for David Eby. The premier of BC has launched a barrage of policies aimed at remedying the provinces housing crisis, currently grappling with the worst housing affordability since the 1980’s. For those keeping score at home, here’s a quick summary: Eliminate rental restriction bylaws in all […]
November 6th, 2023 | Weak Hands
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! Let’s address the elephant in the room. I sent out this tweet last week and it went viral. I can’t comment on who it is, for obvious reasons, so please stop asking. Although it really shouldn’t come as a surprise that a developer with a large construction pipeline is suddenly feeling the […]
October 30th, 2023 | Structural Issues
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! As expected, the Bank of Canada held interest rates at 5% for the second consecutive time. BoC’s Macklem flagged everything we’ve been highlighting in this newsletter for several months now. Weaker economic growth and a recent surge in global bond yields is doing most of the tightening for them. Adding, “The path […]
October 23rd, 2023 | Bell Ringer
Steve Saretsky Blog - Happy Monday Morning! It’s a big week for Canadian households living on the edge. The Bank of Canada is poised to meet on Wednesday to deliver an update on their rate hiking crusade. It is largely expected they’ll remain on the sidelines, as they should given the slew of weak economic data in recent weeks. […]