John Rubino Substack - Happy Labor Day!

John Rubino Substack - Let’s start with the concept of “big toys.” These are things like boats, jet skis, and RVs that people (okay, guys) tend to buy after they’ve had a few good years and conclude that job security and rising pay are now guaranteed for life. Because this hubris peaks near the end of expansions, spiking demand […]

John Rubino Substack - I have a dog who wakes up with the sun and immediately wants a nice long hike. Over the years, he’s trained me to accept his schedule, so at the crack of dawn we drive to one of a dozen or so nearby trails that he counts as his territory. One of our regular hikes […]

John Rubino Substack - Pretend, for a moment, that it’s 1971 and you’re President Richard Nixon (admittedly disturbing fantasies, but bear with me). You face the perennial government income/outflow dilemmas, and other countries, noting your struggle, are trying to cash their dollars in for your limited pile of gold bars. But this time around you don’t cave and “close […]

John Rubino Substack - When negotiating with the Soviet Union, Ronald Reagan’s oft-repeated slogan was “Trust, but verify.” Something similar applies to the world of precious metals, especially remote storage firms. But let’s go even further to: Don’t trust, and always verify. Here’s an example of why: A San Diego couple thought they’d invested in gold. Instead, they and hundreds of others […]

John Rubino Substack - After a nice run in the first half of this year, copper suffered a serious correction, leading some to wonder if this story is broken: A recent post by commodities analyst Rick Mills answers that question. Here’s an excerpt from the (much longer) article: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI) forecasts global copper consumption to grow 3.5% to 28 million […]

John Rubino Substack - The choices for remote gold/silver bullion storage are multiplying. Here’s a new one that seems worthy of consideration. From the press release: Money Metals Opens Idaho-Based Gold Depository Larger Than Fort Knox Eagle, Idaho (August 12, 2024) – The Western United States now has its very own Fort Knox, only substantially larger. After three years of […]

John Rubino Substack - There are more interesting ideas than time in which to consider them. So here’s a new series that bundles bite-sized explanations and suggestions into a quick weekend read. The Yen Carry Trade The “carry trade” is making headlines without, in many cases, being adequately explained. Last week The Kobeissi Letter fixed that with a concise (if […]

John Rubino Substack - New players will make this housing bust one for the record books. The current housing bubble features three new players, all of whom are about to switch from “buy/hold” to “panic sell.” They are: Boomers forced by declining health and/or shrinking stock portfolios to sell their McMansions. Wall Street private equity “landlords” who gorged on […]

John Rubino Substack - Japan has been a big topic in this newsletter because it illustrates the no-win situation in which wildly overindebted countries eventually find themselves. Here are two articles that illustrate the point: How a Country Goes Bankrupt, In 10 Steps Japan Is In That Box Now For The Death Spiral   Confronted with both a plunging […]

John Rubino Substack - The Paris Summer Olympics may have started a trend: Sodom And Gomorrah Set To Host 2028 Olympics (Babylon Bee) – In keeping with the Olympics’ commitment to sexual violence and Satan worship, the International Olympic Committee announced today that the 2028 games would be held in the towns of Sodom and Gomorrah. “They’re a natural fit for […]

John Rubino Substack - The next BRICS meeting is scheduled for October, in Russia. In the meantime, a lot is happening on the de-dollarization front. Some recent news: NATO just took Russian assets and gave them to Ukraine: Not surprisingly… Russia says it’s working with a group of countries to build a platform that doesn’t need the dollar (Business Insider) […]

John Rubino Substack - First, the FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google) were going to rise forever. Then they morphed into the “Magnificent 7” which many believe will ride the AI boom to infinity and beyond. Either way, the result is a wildly unbalanced market (and economy) supported by a tiny group of multi-trillion-dollar companies. We’ve seen […]

John Rubino Substack - Headline economic stats like GDP continue to look pretty good. But the list of reliable indicators screaming “imminent recession” continues to expand. Some of the latest: Un-Inverted Yield Curve   An inverted yield curve (where short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates) is a well-known recession signal. But it really starts flashing when it un-inverts, i.e., when long-term […]

John Rubino Substack - Let’s start with the fact that the average American can’t afford the average house. Not even close: Houses have been unaffordable for a while, but for a while, “investors” — i.e., private equity companies with access to cheap credit — took up the slack, sometimes buying entire neighborhoods and converting the houses to rentals. Now […]

John Rubino Substack - Many people recognize the similarities between today’s world and that of the 1970s. But few understand the potential chaos that implies for a system this overleveraged. Charles Hugh Smith just posted an article that explains the impact on investors. Here’s an excerpt: Twisters on the Horizon: Is This Decade a Re-Make of ‘That 70s Show’? If […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Today’s Stock Market much like 2000 dot com bust set up

John Rubino Substack - Best-selling financial writer and former investment banker Nomi Prins just posted a primer on nuclear power (and, by implication, the uranium mining stocks). Here’s an excerpt: The New Gold Rush: Unlock Uranium’s Soaring Demand Nuclear energy is the “Switzerland” of energy sources. It is increasingly popular with both sides of the political spectrum for several reasons. First, nuclear energy is […]

John Rubino Substack - Japan appears to have entered the inevitable fiat currency death spiral, where interest rates (and interest costs) rise while the currency falls. Fix one problem and the other gets worse, until the system breaks. Here, from March 2023, is a longer explanation:   How a Country Goes Bankrupt, In 10 Steps   The past few […]

John Rubino Substack - A friend just emailed about the Trump assassination attempt, predicting that it guarantees his election in November. I tentatively agreed, and responded with a story: You’re too young to remember Ronald Reagan. But back in the 1980s, his political honeymoon was fading and his approval ratings were dropping. Then someone shot him in the chest, […]

John Rubino Substack - Once you understand the concept of the microbiome, it’s easy to see the problem with pesticide-laden food: Pesticides are poisons designed to kill small lifeforms, and ingesting such poisons risks wiping out or disrupting the good bacteria that keep us alive and functional. The obvious solution is to eat only organic produce and meat. But that’s […]

Juggling Dynamite - In the second quarter of 2024, big tech companies drove the S&P 500 up 4.3%, while the Russell 2000 index of economically representative small and midsize stocks fell 3.6%. The five most expensive S&P 500 companies now make up a record 29% of the US market capitalization–the narrowest concentration since 1965 and more extreme than […]

John Rubino Substack - US financial headlines remain in Goldilocks territory (prompting all those “Why don’t Americans know how good they have it??” diatribes from the MSM). But under the surface, the drumbeat of negative data continues. Today, let’s consider jobs and real estate: Jobs   Official reports of plentiful jobs and low unemployment are possible because the government is […]

John Rubino Substack - Deciding to store gold and/or silver offshore is just the first step in a long process. Choosing a country and a storage service, then contracting to buy or ship the metal, are all make-or-break decisions. And very few newcomers to offshore storage understand everything. So here’s a just-released article from offshore specialist Nestmann Group that answers the […]

John Rubino Substack - As this newsletter’s archives expand, it’s becoming clear that some posts didn’t age well at all. They should stay buried. But others were early and have actually become more relevant as things unfold. So once a week I’m going to republish one of the latter posts The following (from July 28, 2023) needs no explanation in light […]