John Rubino Substack - Since the start of this century, gold has outperformed stocks — despite stocks being in an epic bull market: You’d think that gold would have gotten more attention after such an impressive run. But until recently, this has remained a largely neglected asset class. But Now…Damn   In just the past few weeks, the news […]

John Rubino Substack - Betting against overvalued stocks can be insanely profitable — if you use put options and get the timing right. But those are big “ifs”. Here’s a cautionary tale. Back in May of 2023, when this newsletter was new and its recommended Portfolios needed fleshing out, I named the homebuilder stocks as excellent short candidates. Home prices were too high, […]

John Rubino Substack - For readers not familiar with Matt Taibbi, he’s an old-school, 1960s liberal reporter who is appalled by the corruption of his industry. In the following article, he explains why the USAID drama is important and (at least partially) untangles the rat’s nest of interlocking, taxpayer-funded entities that have turned the search for truth into a propaganda sausage […]

John Rubino Substack - It’s another great day for gold, with $2,800 in the rearview mirror and $3,000 in traders’ crosshairs. This means it’s time to take a deep breath and consider gold’s — and the miners’ —near-term prospects. Reasons for Caution   Let’s start with seasonality. Winter is usually a good time for gold, while spring and early […]

John Rubino Substack - The US political class has created a constellation of taxpayer-funded grifts and sinecures that provide swamp creatures a lifetime of employment for a minimal amount of work. All that’s required is moral flexibility. A graduate of, say, Georgetown University, can build a “career” by cycling through the following entities: Congressional/White House staff Washington think tanks […]

John Rubino Substack - Vitamin D is the gift that keeps on giving. It’s already known to prevent cancer, heart disease, and dementia. And according to new research, it also prevents and/or fixes cavities. Here’s an excerpt from a much longer article on the subject by Dr. Joseph Mercola: Remember that sharp pain while biting down on popcorn? Or the dreaded dentist visit […]

John Rubino Substack - Making America fun to watch again… Transforming government with the stroke of a pen. (Sensitive readers should skip this one.) And in case anyone still needs to be reminded, never believe anything you haven’t personally witnessed:  

John Rubino Substack - Finance hasn’t been simple for a long time. Starting more or less in the 1980s, traditional instruments like stocks and bonds were joined by futures, options, private equity, junk bonds, and bespoke derivatives like credit default swaps. “Quants” now build “black box” trading algorithms to arbitrage the relationships between these things, and clients place bets […]

John Rubino Substack - Real estate, being expensive to finance and highly volatile at market peaks, is frequently a catalyst for recessions. And as Wolf Street’s Wolf Richter reports, housing is sending “peak cycle” signals. The supply of new houses for sale is spiking to previous bubble levels: In some formerly hot markets, it’s even worse: Houses aren’t selling at today’s price/mortgage […]

John Rubino Substack - The president has definitely hit the ground running. But his most impactful policy move isn’t an executive order or cabinet appointment. It’s this: President Trump says he’ll ‘demand that interest rates drop immediately’ (CNBC) – President Donald Trump lobbed his first volley at the Federal Reserve, saying Thursday that he will apply pressure to bring down interest […]

John Rubino Substack - As you watch Trump shred the old order, are you wondering about this revolution’s historical and philosophical roots? For instance, how does MAGA relate to the Fourth Turning? Or to the deep state? Or the Monroe Doctrine, Woodrow Wilson’s globalism, George Soros’ “open society?” or Klaus Schwab’s one world government? Could you, in short, use […]

John Rubino Substack - The East African nation of Mali experienced a military coup in 2021. After settling in, the new “junta” turned its attention to the country’s miners, claiming a bigger stake in projects and demanding commensurately higher tax payments. First in the crosshairs was Perth-based Resolute Mining. When the company’s CEO came to town to negotiate a new […]

John Rubino Substack - In October, two brutal hurricanes hit the US southeast. And last week, Los Angeles went up in flames and is still burning as this is written. These natural disasters are, obviously, a nightmare for the people directly impacted. But they might be part of something much bigger and far-reaching. Migration and Inflation   Over the […]

John Rubino Substack - In theory, the UK dodged a bullet by withdrawing from the EU back in 2020. Once again in control of its borders and budgets, it had the chance to slow immigration to a manageable rate, rationalize its tax, spending, and regulatory regimes, and chart its own course as a free, wealthy financial center and mid-tier geopolitical power. […]

John Rubino Substack - There have been some epic hyperinflations over the centuries, but none was as brutal — and consequential — as Germany’s in the early 1920s. Here’s a quick Chat GPT summary followed by some graphic images and a list of lessons the world should have — but apparently hasn’t — learned: Context of Post-World War I Germany: After […]

John Rubino Substack - The money Americans saved during the pandemic is gone. And for many, that now means borrowing to make ends meet. Credit card debt set to hit record levels as consumer holiday spending rises (CNBC) – Heading into the holidays, many Americans were already saddled with record-breaking credit card debt. And yet, consumer spending is set to reach […]

John Rubino Substack - December produced a lot of surprises. President Biden pardoned his son…for an oddly specific period of time: United Health, a previously obscure insurance company, became a hot topic: Frustration about American health care produced a French Revolution-style path to popularity: Luigi Mangione To Host Next Week’s Episode Of ‘SNL’ (Babylon Bee) – In a move intended […]

John Rubino Substack - Last week’s battle over a continuing resolution (CR) to fund the US government into 2025 got a lot of press coverage, much of it unfavorable. But one aspect of the saga was both underreported and, well, revolutionary. Normally, Congress waits until the government is on the verge of shutting down before releasing a thousand+ page monstrosity of […]

John Rubino Substack - In early 2023, the stars appeared to align for another housing bust. Home prices were crazy high, consumers were over-indebted, and mortgage rates were rising towards the dreaded 7% level. Add it all up, and a bust at least as dramatic as that of 2007/2008 — when homebuilder stocks fell by 80% — seemed imminent. […]

John Rubino Substack - For readers who are busy planning Christmas dinner, let’s get right to it: You might be poisoning yourself and your family. Because “poison” is exactly what many popular “ultra-processed” foods are. Consider: How Do Processed Foods Affect Your Health? (WebMD) – Highly processed food may put you at a higher cancer risk. One study found that your risk of […]

John Rubino Substack - Since the creation of Europe’s common currency in 1999, Germany has been the key to the whole project. The European Central Bank stood ready to buy up all the (for instance) Italian debt that the markets couldn’t or wouldn’t absorb, and Germany stood ready to back the ECB with its industrial might and financial wealth. […]

John Rubino Substack - Government finances usually look their best at cyclical peaks when lots of people are working and paying taxes, relatively few are drawing unemployment benefits or welfare, and financial asset prices are way up, thus generating lots of capital gains tax revenue. If a government is ever going to balance its budget, that’s when it happens. […]

John Rubino Substack - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates today. But that might be it for a while. Consider: Consumer spending is exceeding expectations:   Motor vehicles, online purchases boost US retail sales in November (Reuters) – U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in November amid an acceleration in motor vehicle and online purchases, consistent […]

John Rubino Substack - Back in the 1700s, France was ruled by a small group of inbred idiot aristocrats who started a series of ruinously expensive wars (see, history is rhyming already). As the bills came due, there wasn’t enough gold to pay creditors, and the government faced that era’s version of bankruptcy. Then along came a Scottish economist/con […]

John Rubino Substack - Lots of people envy some aspects of their grandparents’ lives, with good reason: Houses used to cost $40,000, college tuition used to be a few thousand dollars a year, and the air used to be free of plastic nanoparticles. Those really were the good old days. But you know who would really like to go […]