John Rubino Substack - In October, two brutal hurricanes hit the US southeast. And last week, Los Angeles went up in flames and is still burning as this is written. These natural disasters are, obviously, a nightmare for the people directly impacted. But they might be part of something much bigger and far-reaching. Migration and Inflation   Over the […]

John Rubino Substack - In theory, the UK dodged a bullet by withdrawing from the EU back in 2020. Once again in control of its borders and budgets, it had the chance to slow immigration to a manageable rate, rationalize its tax, spending, and regulatory regimes, and chart its own course as a free, wealthy financial center and mid-tier geopolitical power. […]

John Rubino Substack - There have been some epic hyperinflations over the centuries, but none was as brutal — and consequential — as Germany’s in the early 1920s. Here’s a quick Chat GPT summary followed by some graphic images and a list of lessons the world should have — but apparently hasn’t — learned: Context of Post-World War I Germany: After […]

John Rubino Substack - The money Americans saved during the pandemic is gone. And for many, that now means borrowing to make ends meet. Credit card debt set to hit record levels as consumer holiday spending rises (CNBC) – Heading into the holidays, many Americans were already saddled with record-breaking credit card debt. And yet, consumer spending is set to reach […]

John Rubino Substack - December produced a lot of surprises. President Biden pardoned his son…for an oddly specific period of time: United Health, a previously obscure insurance company, became a hot topic: Frustration about American health care produced a French Revolution-style path to popularity: Luigi Mangione To Host Next Week’s Episode Of ‘SNL’ (Babylon Bee) – In a move intended […]

John Rubino Substack - Last week’s battle over a continuing resolution (CR) to fund the US government into 2025 got a lot of press coverage, much of it unfavorable. But one aspect of the saga was both underreported and, well, revolutionary. Normally, Congress waits until the government is on the verge of shutting down before releasing a thousand+ page monstrosity of […]

John Rubino Substack - In early 2023, the stars appeared to align for another housing bust. Home prices were crazy high, consumers were over-indebted, and mortgage rates were rising towards the dreaded 7% level. Add it all up, and a bust at least as dramatic as that of 2007/2008 — when homebuilder stocks fell by 80% — seemed imminent. […]

John Rubino Substack - For readers who are busy planning Christmas dinner, let’s get right to it: You might be poisoning yourself and your family. Because “poison” is exactly what many popular “ultra-processed” foods are. Consider: How Do Processed Foods Affect Your Health? (WebMD) – Highly processed food may put you at a higher cancer risk. One study found that your risk of […]

John Rubino Substack - Since the creation of Europe’s common currency in 1999, Germany has been the key to the whole project. The European Central Bank stood ready to buy up all the (for instance) Italian debt that the markets couldn’t or wouldn’t absorb, and Germany stood ready to back the ECB with its industrial might and financial wealth. […]

John Rubino Substack - Government finances usually look their best at cyclical peaks when lots of people are working and paying taxes, relatively few are drawing unemployment benefits or welfare, and financial asset prices are way up, thus generating lots of capital gains tax revenue. If a government is ever going to balance its budget, that’s when it happens. […]

John Rubino Substack - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates today. But that might be it for a while. Consider: Consumer spending is exceeding expectations:   Motor vehicles, online purchases boost US retail sales in November (Reuters) – U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in November amid an acceleration in motor vehicle and online purchases, consistent […]

John Rubino Substack - Back in the 1700s, France was ruled by a small group of inbred idiot aristocrats who started a series of ruinously expensive wars (see, history is rhyming already). As the bills came due, there wasn’t enough gold to pay creditors, and the government faced that era’s version of bankruptcy. Then along came a Scottish economist/con […]

John Rubino Substack - Lots of people envy some aspects of their grandparents’ lives, with good reason: Houses used to cost $40,000, college tuition used to be a few thousand dollars a year, and the air used to be free of plastic nanoparticles. Those really were the good old days. But you know who would really like to go […]

John Rubino Substack - The last few US inflation reports have been ominous, with the general trend morphing from sharp decline to gradual increase. Here’s the Core Services index, which is now rising at a 4% annual rate: Stocks, meanwhile, are priced for perfection, with the second highest price/earnings ratio on record: Investors are getting cocky, as evidenced by the soaring […]

John Rubino Substack - It’s bad enough that our phones and cars (and vacuum cleaners and doorbells) track, save, and sell our texts, phone calls, and location data. But that may be just the beginning. From Mark Jeftovic’s Axis of Easy daily briefing: China Hacks US Telecom Giants in Massive Espionage Operation The “Salt Typhoon” hacking campaign, attributed to China, has […]

John Rubino Substack - Back in February, I made the ambitious claim that former State Department analyst Mike Benz had released “the single most important thing currently available online.” Here it is: Now Benz is back with a nearly three-hour Joe Rogan episode in which he explains how the US has replaced the most evil bits of the CIA and State […]

John Rubino Substack - Fiat currency systems usually end with debts soaring to unmanageable levels and governments powerless to stop the resulting carnage. Japan and the US will get there eventually. But Europe is tipping into the abyss in real time. Germany’s self-inflicted deindustrialization is a mess so vast (and sad) that it will get a post of its […]

John Rubino Substack - Hypersonic missiles are flying, the people (still!) in charge are strangely okay with that…and Peanut the Squirrel dies tragically. New York Authorities Announce Peanut The Squirrel Died Of COVID (Babylon Bee) – Following the public outcry about the state’s Department of Environmental Conservation raiding a local man’s home and euthanizing his pet squirrel who had hundreds of thousands […]

John Rubino Substack - China   From the Kobeissi Letter: China’s consumer confidence index dropped to 86 points in August, near the lowest in 30 years. Over the last 3 years, consumer confidence in China is down ~ 50 points. Such a drop in consumer assessment of the Chinese economy has almost never been seen before. Foreign firms are also […]

John Rubino Substack - By now we’ve all seen at least one article titled “Sitting is the New Smoking.” That’s a clever title that instantly engages the reader. It’s also apparently true. People who sit for most of the day tend to have all kinds of circulatory and metabolic problems that frequently end up killing them. Here’s an overview […]

John Rubino Substack - So in his last act before shuffling off the stage, the US president … greenlights Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles to strike deep into Russia. The latter then fires — for the first time ever — a hypersonic ICBM capable of delivering a nuclear payload to pretty much anywhere in a matter of minutes. And just like […]

John Rubino Substack - As the old saying goes, “History doesn’t repeat, but it does rhyme.” Which means there are plenty of lessons to be learned from our ancestors’ screw-ups. This post is the first in a series covering some of humanity’s more useful cautionary tales. The logical starting point is of course ancient Rome, with its many disturbing […]

John Rubino Substack - Every once in a while, the term “bond spread” pops up in financial reporting. Most people (who aren’t money nerds) don’t know what this means and how big a deal it sometimes is. So — since it’s a major red flag at the moment — this might be a good time to discuss it: Bond […]

John Rubino Substack - Home prices are at all-time highs, and — amazingly — are still rising. Compare today’s average price to that of 2007, which is generally thought to be the peak of America’s biggest-ever housing bubble: And mortgage rates, which were supposed to fall when the Fed started easing in September, are instead rising. 7%, here we […]

John Rubino Substack - Our recent drift into authoritarianism hurt a lot of innocent people. And even before last week’s election, the process of “truth and reconciliation” was gaining momentum. This is the first in a series that tracks some of the more notable cases of justice restored. 6 BART employees who refused COVID-19 vaccine to receive more than […]