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Hilliard MacBeth
Author of "When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash"
December 10th, 2021 | The U.K. Stock Market is for Contrarians Only
Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The stock markets in Europe are much cheaper than the U.S. In fact, based on price-earnings (P/E) ratios, some European indices like the U.K. FTSE 100 are at the cheapest level ever in relation to the U.S. benchmark, the S&P 500. Is this a buying opportunity, or a value trap? Source: Bloomberg The U.K. index, […]
December 7th, 2021 | What Will Put the Brakes On Canadian Housing Boom?
HoweStreet.com Radio - The Fed really has changed to protect speculators
December 3rd, 2021 | A Major Policy Mistake
Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Policy makers in the U.S., and elsewhere, are in the middle of making a dangerous policy mistake, according to Martin Barnes, a prominent economist. The Federal Reserve is “caught in a trap of its own making”. Martin Barnes, formerly chief economist of BCA Research, is now retired. But he still writes occasional reports, and […]
November 26th, 2021 | The Bank of Canada is Ignoring the Risks
Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Recently the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, Paul Beaudry, made a speech about the resilience of the Canadian financial system. He discussed several serious vulnerabilities threatening the system but claims that financial institutions will be fine, even if those risks trigger a financial crisis. Is the Bank of Canada ignoring the risks? The speech was […]
November 19th, 2021 | Gold Could be a Hedge Against a Fed-Induced Financial Crisis
Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Gold bullion and gold mining shares are about as depressed as they ever get in relation to bonds and stocks. Gold and gold mining equities used to be considered a hedge against inflation and the debasement of paper money. With the Fed reluctant to take strong measures to fight inflation will gold finally have its […]
November 16th, 2021 | Why Musk Might Pay the Biggest Tax Bill in History
HoweStreet.com Radio - Generation Z has a whole different idea on how to be wealthy
November 12th, 2021 | The Federal Reserve Ignores the Biggest Risk to the Economy
Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Federal Reserve issues a financial stability report twice a year that assesses the resilience of the financial system and highlights near-term risks. Is the Fed failing to see the biggest risk? As the report says, “In an unstable financial system, adverse events are more likely to result in severe financial stress and disrupt the flow […]
November 5th, 2021 | The Fed Risks Triggering Another Taper Tantrum
Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Federal Reserve announced that the quantitative easing (QE) program that has been in place for more than a decade will be phased out gradually. In 2013 when the Fed tried to exit the QE program the markets threw a tantrum, government bond yields jumped from 2 percent to 3 percent and the Fed backed […]
October 29th, 2021 | Elon Musk is the Wealthiest Billionaire on Earth
Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and Space-X has become the world’s wealthiest billionaire. He recently passed Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon, to reach the number one spot. Will Musk become the first person to reach $1 trillion? As Tesla shares reached a peak of $1,000 on Monday, and the value of the company on the […]
October 22nd, 2021 | Canadian CPI massively underestimates housing costs
Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Canada’s statistics bureau, StatsCan, says that CPI-measured inflation is running hot. Year-over-year gains were 4.4 percent for September 2021, one of the fastest rates among developed countries. News reports highlighted rising food and gasoline prices, but house prices are soaring, by 18 percent from a year ago. Why is CPI inflation only 4.4 percent with […]
October 19th, 2021 | Alberta Civic Election a Warning for Jason Kenney?
HoweStreet.com Radio - What are the best ways to get value from your home?
October 15th, 2021 | Rapidly Building Inflation Threatens
Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Inflation is threatening to get out of control and central banks could be asleep at the switch. In the U.S. the Fed remains supremely confident of its ability to control rising prices, if needed. Is the Fed overconfident? US inflation CPI hit a 13-year high this week at 5.4 percent growth year-over-year, but central bankers […]
October 8th, 2021 | Tesla Results are Electrifying
Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Tesla released outstanding sales for the third quarter ending September 30, 2021. At 240,000 vehicles over three months, Tesla deliveries will soon reach 1 million vehicles annually. The rest of the auto industry remains in a deep slump. Is Tesla’s rapid growth proof that the future is all-electric? Tesla sales remain relatively small in comparison […]
October 5th, 2021 | Spillover from Evergrande Crisis, Home Prices, Mortgages
HoweStreet.com Radio - Junk Bonds, Tesla Sales, William Shatner Into Space
October 1st, 2021 | Twin Growth Challenges in China will Test the World
Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - China is being hit by the double whammy of a real estate slowdown and electrical power shortages. The Chinese system will be put to a severe test. Will China’s twin challenges impact the world economy? Since China was initiated into the WTO in 2001 the Chinese economy has led the world in economic growth. In […]
September 24th, 2021 | China Evergrande is not Lehman Brothers
Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The China Evergrande debacle continues to worsen. China Evergrande, the second largest property developer in China and the most indebted in the world, missed loan payments this week, triggering a technical default. Is the China Evergrande crisis like the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy? Lehman failed in 2008 with $630 billion in liabilities and $600 billion in […]
September 21st, 2021 | Could Evergrande Crisis Crash China’s Economy?
HoweStreet.com Radio - Election result will do little to help Canada’s housing crunch
September 10th, 2021 | Irrational Exuberance is Here Again
Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Irrational exuberance is a term introduced by Alan Greenspan in a speech in December 1996. In 2021, the degree of enthusiasm for financial assets is at an extreme seldom seen before throughout history. Will this episode of irrational exuberance lead to a crisis in markets? Some market analysts and economists are very concerned about the […]
September 7th, 2021 | Inflation, Mortgage Debt, Consumer Debt
HoweStreet.com Radio - Economists out of touch
September 3rd, 2021 | Corporate Debt Threatens the Recovery
Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Corporate indebtedness has been increasing at a steady rate for years. The rate of increase has even accelerated since 2008. This amount of debt in the corporate world makes the economy more vulnerable to new shocks. Will elevated corporate debt trigger the next financial crisis? From the FT.com (paywall) “Unhedged” Robert Armstrong writes: “Corporate debt has never […]
August 27th, 2021 | Stock Market Speculation Soars
Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Speculation in stock markets has been growing for many months. But the latest review of several reliable indicators of speculation shows that a shocking amount of speculative fever has appeared in stock market activity. Does this degree of speculation always lead to a stock market crash? The highly respected GMO LLC quarterly letter compiled a […]
August 24th, 2021 | Margin Debt Holders at Great Risk
HoweStreet.com Radio - How long before bots are driving cargo?
August 20th, 2021 | Property Developer China Evergrande Could Trigger a Crisis
Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - China Evergrande Group, one of the largest property developers in the world, appears to be unable to pay its debts. Investors reacted badly when founder and Chairman, Hui Ka Yan, stepped down from his role as chair of the most important unit of the company, Hengda Real Estate. Could China Evergrande trigger a financial crisis […]
August 13th, 2021 | Code Red Alert on Climate Change
Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - A report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change triggered a code red alert on the impact of human-induced global warming. The sixth assessment points out that the earth’s climate has warmed by 1.1 degrees Celsius (C) since the Industrial Revolution and immediate action is necessary to limit future temperature increases. Antonio Guterres, UN […]
August 10th, 2021 | Who is Going to Pay for Climate Change Measures?
HoweStreet.com Radio - Did people move out of the big city too soon?