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Don Vialoux

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Donald Vialoux is author of the free blog Tech Talk, a daily investment report available during the past 20 years at www.timingthemarket.ca. Comments focus on the seasonal and technical outlook for equity indices, commodities and sectors. Mr. Vialoux has 53 years of experience in the investment industry and is a past president of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA).

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line For 2024, look for North American equity markets to follow the U.S. Presidential Election  cycle. The Dow Jones Industrial Average in the fourth year of the U.S. Presidential Election years since 1930 has a history of moving higher. Average return per period is 8.0%. However, “Mind the Gap”. The 8% gain also […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line  Encouraging U.S. economic news released on Friday added to the possibility of the proverbial Santa Claus yearend rally that normally lasts to the first two trading days in January. The November Core PCE Price Index on a year-over-year basis came in at 3.2%, nicely lower than consensus at 3.4%. Equity and bond […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line North American equity indices are entering their strongest period of seasonal strength in the year. According to www.EquityClock.com “Santa Claus delivers a positive bias surrounding the end of  the year with the traditional rally period spanning from December 15th to January 6th. The average return of the S&P 500 during the approximately […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Focus this week is on U.S. economic news and its impact on interest rates: November CPI on Tuesday, November PPI on Wednesday, FOMC’s Fed Fund Rate on Wednesday and November Retail Sales on Thursday. If consensus holds, the stage is set for the proverbial Christmas Rally from December 15th to January 5th,

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Momentum by North American equity markets remains strong during its current period of seasonal strength from late October to the first week in January. A word of caution! Strength frequently is damped temporarily by yearend transactions for tax purposes between now and December 15th. Thereafter, the Santa Claus rally ‘kicks in” until […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Seasonal strength from late October until yearend by most world equity indices was extended last week.

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line The yearend rally from late October to the first week in January for North American  equity indices continues. Historically, as part of the yearend rally, North American equity markets have moved higher from just before U.S. Thanksgiving holiday (November 23rd this year) to the first trading day in December.

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line The year-end rally by North American equity indices continued last week. Historically, the best period to own U.S. and Canadian equity indices is from the last week in October to the first week in January.

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line The strongest period of seasonal strength in the year for North American equity indices from October 27th to January 5th “started with a bang” last week. The S&P 500 Index jumped % and the TSX Composite Index advanced %. Trigger for the advance was news that the Federal Reserve held the Fed […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line According to www.EquityClock.com “October 27th marks the average start to the best six months of the year for stocks.  Over the past five decades, the S&P 500 Index has gained an average of 8.12% between October 27th and May 5th.” In addition, the strongest nine day period in the year for the […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Brutal equity markets around the world last week! Equity markets responded primarily to rising U.S. long term interest rates. Not surprising, the CNN Fear/Greed Index dropped to 26, a level that borders on the Extreme Fear level. See https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Third quarter report season is “off to a good start”. Reports released to date generally have recorded higher than consensus results (notably by the U.S. money center banks). Analysts were prompted to raise estimates. Revenue and earnings gains on a year-over-year basis are projected to accelerate in the fourth quarter. The stage […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Don Vialoux was a guest on “Wolf on Bay Street” to be released at 7:00 PM EDT on Saturday on Corus Radio 640. The show was taped at noon on Thursday. Following are notes developed prior to the interview:

September 30th, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday 30th 2023

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line North American equity markets continue to track their seasonal pattern that calls for weakness into the last week in September and the first week in October followed by start of the traditional fourth quarter rally. Lots of “noise” continues to negatively influence equity prices including the auto worker strike and a likely […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line North American equity indices and related stocks are closely following their weakest period of the year from the second week in September to the second week in October. Broadly  based U.S. equity indices completed Double Top or Head & Shoulders patterns (including a double top pattern the Dow Jones Industrial Average on […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line History suggests that short term caution is warranted for a new investment in North American equity markets. According to  www.EquityClock.com , “The weakest time of year for stocks is at our doorstep, encompassing the final weeks in the third quarter. Between September 19th and the last day of the month on September […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Lots of “noise” bothering North American equity markets this week! Possible autoworker strikes in Canada and U.S. starting September 14th. Bargaining positions between the union and companies remain wide. Possible shut down of the U.S. government by Congress if unable to reach a deficit limit agreement before the end of September. The […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line A word of caution! North American equity indices have a history of reaching a short term peak near the middle of September followed by the weakest period in the year to the second week in October. Charts on the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average show a similar pattern.

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line High and rising interest rates on long term North American Treasuries have “put a lid” on North American equity markets. Comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on Friday echoed comments by the Bank of Canada that central banks in North America are “prepared to raise rates further”. The stage is set for […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line  Intermediate swing traders looking for continuation of an upward trend by North American equity markets were rewarded for their patience last week. The S&P 500 Index at 4,369 moved closer to technical support near 4,200. The TSX Composite Index at 19,818 moved closer to technical support near 19,400.

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Now is the time for intermediate swing traders to become patient! Led by the “Magnificent Seven” big cap technology stocks, U.S. equity indices came under short term trading profit taking pressures last week. Intermediate term and long term momentum data available at the end of this report shows that the S&P 500 […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line North American equity indices reached an intermediate peak on or about July 27th. Thereafter, volatility increased significantly as prices moved lower. The period for increased volatility in North American equity markets has arrived. Intermediate downside risks exists between now and mid-October.

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line North American equity markets continued to respond to better than expected negative corporate news. Second quarter results released to date by major U.S and Canadian companies have been better than expected: Last week, 80 % of reporting S&P 500 companies reported higher than consensus earnings and 64% reported higher than consensus revenues. […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Focus next week is on news released from the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Consensus calls for at least another 0.25% increase in the Fed Fund Rate to 5.50%. Second quarter results released by S&P 500 companies were mixed at best last week. Better than consensus results were released by most U.S. money […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Here come second quarter results! Early responses to better than consensus reports released last week were encouraging with nice gains recorded by Pepsico, Delta Airlines, UnitedHealth Group and JP Morgan. However, selling pressures appeared on Friday: Selected stocks sold down sharply after reporting less than consensus quarterly results. Notable was weakness in […]
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