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Don Vialoux

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Donald Vialoux is author of the free blog Tech Talk, a daily investment report available during the past 20 years at www.timingthemarket.ca. Comments focus on the seasonal and technical outlook for equity indices, commodities and sectors. Mr. Vialoux has 53 years of experience in the investment industry and is a past president of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA).

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Seasonal strength from late October until yearend by most world equity indices was extended last week.

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line The yearend rally from late October to the first week in January for North American  equity indices continues. Historically, as part of the yearend rally, North American equity markets have moved higher from just before U.S. Thanksgiving holiday (November 23rd this year) to the first trading day in December.

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line The year-end rally by North American equity indices continued last week. Historically, the best period to own U.S. and Canadian equity indices is from the last week in October to the first week in January.

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line The strongest period of seasonal strength in the year for North American equity indices from October 27th to January 5th “started with a bang” last week. The S&P 500 Index jumped % and the TSX Composite Index advanced %. Trigger for the advance was news that the Federal Reserve held the Fed […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line According to www.EquityClock.com “October 27th marks the average start to the best six months of the year for stocks.  Over the past five decades, the S&P 500 Index has gained an average of 8.12% between October 27th and May 5th.” In addition, the strongest nine day period in the year for the […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Brutal equity markets around the world last week! Equity markets responded primarily to rising U.S. long term interest rates. Not surprising, the CNN Fear/Greed Index dropped to 26, a level that borders on the Extreme Fear level. See https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Third quarter report season is “off to a good start”. Reports released to date generally have recorded higher than consensus results (notably by the U.S. money center banks). Analysts were prompted to raise estimates. Revenue and earnings gains on a year-over-year basis are projected to accelerate in the fourth quarter. The stage […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Don Vialoux was a guest on “Wolf on Bay Street” to be released at 7:00 PM EDT on Saturday on Corus Radio 640. The show was taped at noon on Thursday. Following are notes developed prior to the interview:

September 30th, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday 30th 2023

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line North American equity markets continue to track their seasonal pattern that calls for weakness into the last week in September and the first week in October followed by start of the traditional fourth quarter rally. Lots of “noise” continues to negatively influence equity prices including the auto worker strike and a likely […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line North American equity indices and related stocks are closely following their weakest period of the year from the second week in September to the second week in October. Broadly  based U.S. equity indices completed Double Top or Head & Shoulders patterns (including a double top pattern the Dow Jones Industrial Average on […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line History suggests that short term caution is warranted for a new investment in North American equity markets. According to  www.EquityClock.com , “The weakest time of year for stocks is at our doorstep, encompassing the final weeks in the third quarter. Between September 19th and the last day of the month on September […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Lots of “noise” bothering North American equity markets this week! Possible autoworker strikes in Canada and U.S. starting September 14th. Bargaining positions between the union and companies remain wide. Possible shut down of the U.S. government by Congress if unable to reach a deficit limit agreement before the end of September. The […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line A word of caution! North American equity indices have a history of reaching a short term peak near the middle of September followed by the weakest period in the year to the second week in October. Charts on the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average show a similar pattern.

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line High and rising interest rates on long term North American Treasuries have “put a lid” on North American equity markets. Comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on Friday echoed comments by the Bank of Canada that central banks in North America are “prepared to raise rates further”. The stage is set for […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line  Intermediate swing traders looking for continuation of an upward trend by North American equity markets were rewarded for their patience last week. The S&P 500 Index at 4,369 moved closer to technical support near 4,200. The TSX Composite Index at 19,818 moved closer to technical support near 19,400.

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Now is the time for intermediate swing traders to become patient! Led by the “Magnificent Seven” big cap technology stocks, U.S. equity indices came under short term trading profit taking pressures last week. Intermediate term and long term momentum data available at the end of this report shows that the S&P 500 […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line North American equity indices reached an intermediate peak on or about July 27th. Thereafter, volatility increased significantly as prices moved lower. The period for increased volatility in North American equity markets has arrived. Intermediate downside risks exists between now and mid-October.

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line North American equity markets continued to respond to better than expected negative corporate news. Second quarter results released to date by major U.S and Canadian companies have been better than expected: Last week, 80 % of reporting S&P 500 companies reported higher than consensus earnings and 64% reported higher than consensus revenues. […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Focus next week is on news released from the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Consensus calls for at least another 0.25% increase in the Fed Fund Rate to 5.50%. Second quarter results released by S&P 500 companies were mixed at best last week. Better than consensus results were released by most U.S. money […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Here come second quarter results! Early responses to better than consensus reports released last week were encouraging with nice gains recorded by Pepsico, Delta Airlines, UnitedHealth Group and JP Morgan. However, selling pressures appeared on Friday: Selected stocks sold down sharply after reporting less than consensus quarterly results. Notable was weakness in […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Equity markets on both sides of the border are on central bank watch. In Canada, the Bank of Canada is expected to increase its interest rate for Canadian banks on Wednesday from 4.75% to 5.00%. The BOC is expected to respond to continuing strength  in Canada’s employment. The June Employment report reported […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Calm before the storm! Expected corporate news from major U.S. and Canadian companies this week is exceptionally quiet. Many corporations have entered their “quiet time” approximately 10 days prior to release of quarterly results. Volumes on North American equity markets typically are well below average this week. Bid/Ask spreads widen. Traders are […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Investors are expected to enter into a “holiday mood” this week prior to national holidays on July 1st in Canada and July 4th in the United States. Volume in equity markets on both sides of the border typically drops as the week progresses. Price volatility is higher than average. Broadly based North […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Changes in currencies are having an important impact on equity and commodity prices.  The U.S. Dollar Index and its related Exchange Traded Note (Symbol: UUP) moved significantly lower following news on Wednesday from the Federal Reserve that it plans to maintain the Fed Fund Rate at 5.00%-5.25% for now. In response, world […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line: Watching for responses to bad news! Investors are confronted with a series of bad news events this week:   News from the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Members of the Committee hinted that they will “stand pat” with the current Fed Fund Rate at 5.00%-5.25% in anticipation of more “data points” (including the May […]
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