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Don Vialoux

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Donald Vialoux is author of the free blog Tech Talk, a daily investment report available during the past 20 years at www.timingthemarket.ca. Comments focus on the seasonal and technical outlook for equity indices, commodities and sectors. Mr. Vialoux has 53 years of experience in the investment industry and is a past president of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA).

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line The “bulls” regained control of U.S. equity markets last week. S&P 500 Index, Dow Jones  Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite Index broke to all-time highs. Leadership was provided by technology sector: Technology SPDRs (Symbol: XLK) moved above $212.00 to an all-time high. A speculative spike in the “Meme stocks” also contributed to […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line All-time highs at the close on Friday for the Europe, Africa and Far East Index (EAFE Index) and its related ETF: EFA! Strength in the Index was bolstered by an all-time high set by Europe iShares (IEV) and by strength in Chinese and South African equity indices. Honorable mention is given to […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line The Fabulous Four (Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta) dominated technical action by broadly based U.S. equity indices last week. Higher than consensus quarterly results by these dominant companies prompted analysts to increase significantly first quarter earnings and revenues estimates for the S&P 100 Index and the NASDAQ 100 Index. Their strong earnings gains […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Focus this week in on the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates announced on Wednesday at 2:00 PM EDT. Consensus calls for no change in the Fed Fund Rate currently at 5.25%-5.50%. The question is “How long will the Fed maintain this rate?” Release of a slightly “hotter than consensus” March core […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Short term technical action by world markets remains focused on the Israel/Iran conflict. Growing uncertainties had a negative impact on equity markets and a positive impact on commodity prices last week. First quarter earnings report season ramps up this week. Responses to results released to date have been mixed. Focuses this week […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line U.S. equity markets were “off to a rough start” last week following initial releases of first quarter results by major companies: Notably weaker following release of quarterly results included Blackrock, Fastenal, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. Weakness was recorded despite corporate reports that exceeded revenue and earnings consensus. Trigger for weakness […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line World equity indices moved slightly lower last week. Exceptions were the TSX Composite Index and the Shanghai Composite Index. Industrial commodities and related equities continued to move higher. ‘Tis the season for industrial commodity prices and their related Exchange Traded Funds to move higher until early June!

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line World equity markets were mixed last week, typical when intermediate momentum indicators are overbought: U.S. equity indices moved in a narrow trading range. S&P 500 Index gained 0.39% and the NASDAQ Composite Index slipped 0.30%. ETFs representing European, Canadian and Merging Markets were slightly higher. ETFs representing Far East markets were slightly […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Responses by North American equity market to FOMC news released last Wednesday were a pleasant surprise. S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average quickly moved to all-time highs. The TSX Composite Index tested its all-time high at 22,213.07 set on April 5th 2022. Responses were triggered by comments by Federal Reserve […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Focus this week is on the Fed Fund Rate update released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday. U.S. equity markets traded in a narrow range last week prior to the news. Consensus is that the FOMC will maintain the rate at 5.25%-5.50%. Comments following the 2:00 PM statement will be examined carefully […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Another mixed week for performance by North American equity markets! Signs of investor uncertainty increased: the VIX Index advanced 12%, Gold bullion ETN (GLD) gained 4.3%, Gold Equity ETF (GDX) advanced 8.4% and Bitcoin jumped 9.9%.

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line U.S. equity indices were mixed last week: S&P 500 Index and NASDAQ Composite Index  recorded small gains while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average recorded small losses.

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Nvidia was the pleasant surprise last week: Its strength following release of “blow out” quarterly results powered the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average to all-time highs. Nvidia extended its parabolic upside move following release of results on Wednesday.

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Changes by key world equity indices were significant last week: U.S. equity indices moved lower following release of higher than consensus January CPI and PPI reports. Equity indices and related ETFs for India, Japan, China and Europe rose significantly. China iShares completed a double bottom pattern. EAFE iShares touched an all-time high. […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Headline reads “S&P 500 Index closes at an all-time high”. The “Magnificent Four” (Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Nvidia), recently narrowed down from the “Magnificent Seven”, continued to move higher. Their extraordinary overweight in the S&P 500 Index and the NASDAQ 100 Index was the main reason why all-time highs were reached on […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Exceptional price gains on Friday by Meta Platform (Up 20.32%) and Amazon (Up 7.87%) after their release of better-than-consensus quarterly results significantly distorted performance of the S&P 500 Index relative to the Equal Weighted S&P 500 Index and its related ETF: RSP. Since December 28th the S&P 500 Index has gained 3.66%% […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Responses to fourth quarter results released last week by S&P 500 companies were mixed with important exceptions. Notable were responses to reports by key technology companies: Strongest positive responses were recorded by Microsoft, ASML, IBM, Netflix and Lam Research. Strongest negative responses were recorded by Texas Instruments, Tesla, Intel and Visa.

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Led by the technology sector, U.S. equity indices (notably S&P 500 Index above 4818.62 and NASDAQ 100 Index above 16,767.86) moved to all-time highs on Friday.

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Here come fourth quarter 2023 results by S&P 500 companies! Responses to results released to date have been mixed to slightly negative. Stocks that moved higher last week following release of results included Blackrock, Citigroup and Bank of New York Mellon. Stocks that moved lower included KB Homes, Delta Airlines, UnitedHealth Group, […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Time for a pause in performance by U.S. equity markets into mid-March, most notably by the tech heavy NASDAQ Index and related ETFs! Thereafter, look for strength to the end of 2024 supported by accelerating earnings gains and a history of rising U.S. indices during the fourth year of the U.S. Presidential […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line For 2024, look for North American equity markets to follow the U.S. Presidential Election  cycle. The Dow Jones Industrial Average in the fourth year of the U.S. Presidential Election years since 1930 has a history of moving higher. Average return per period is 8.0%. However, “Mind the Gap”. The 8% gain also […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line  Encouraging U.S. economic news released on Friday added to the possibility of the proverbial Santa Claus yearend rally that normally lasts to the first two trading days in January. The November Core PCE Price Index on a year-over-year basis came in at 3.2%, nicely lower than consensus at 3.4%. Equity and bond […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line North American equity indices are entering their strongest period of seasonal strength in the year. According to www.EquityClock.com “Santa Claus delivers a positive bias surrounding the end of  the year with the traditional rally period spanning from December 15th to January 6th. The average return of the S&P 500 during the approximately […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Focus this week is on U.S. economic news and its impact on interest rates: November CPI on Tuesday, November PPI on Wednesday, FOMC’s Fed Fund Rate on Wednesday and November Retail Sales on Thursday. If consensus holds, the stage is set for the proverbial Christmas Rally from December 15th to January 5th,

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Momentum by North American equity markets remains strong during its current period of seasonal strength from late October to the first week in January. A word of caution! Strength frequently is damped temporarily by yearend transactions for tax purposes between now and December 15th. Thereafter, the Santa Claus rally ‘kicks in” until […]
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