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Danielle Park

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Portfolio Manager and President of Venable Park Investment Counsel (www.venablepark.com) Ms Park is a financial analyst, attorney, finance author and regular guest on North American media. She is also the author of the best-selling myth-busting book "Juggling Dynamite: An insider's wisdom on money management, markets and wealth that lasts," and a popular daily financial blog: www.jugglingdynamite.com

April 30th, 2024 | The Great Unwind in Motion

Juggling Dynamite - Government transfers to households and businesses exploded to record highs during the pandemic, while central banks helped push interest rates to all-time lows. This enabled excess spending, inflated the price of goods, services, labour, and assets in most countries at once, and ballooned debt through all levels of the global economy. Then, central banks hiked […]

Juggling Dynamite - Hoisington’s First Quarter 2024 Review and Outlook is available here. Always a rich and enlightening economic lesson. For those who think the impacts of the 2022-23 monetary tightening cycle are over, this concise review is worth a look. U.S. dollar world liquidity (MWDL) dropped by a record 9% year over year in February as the U.S. Fed’s […]

Juggling Dynamite - I’ve frequently spoken and written about leverage-on-leverage contagion risks from the private equity and credit markets with feedback loops to real estate. Some of the articles are here. As interest rates slumped in the decade leading up to 2022, this space increasingly attracted yield-starved capital from institutions and individuals alike. Our capital management firm was inundated […]

Juggling Dynamite - Understanding the truth about plastic is key to finding solutions. Globally, only 9% of plastic is ever recycled, and even that tiny amount requires some virgin plastic to maintain quality. But scientists have discovered a new way to address this issue: “plastivores”, organisms that have evolved to eat plastic using enzymes in their bodies. Can […]

Juggling Dynamite - First quarter new condo sales in the Toronto region dropped to their lowest level since the 2009 financial crisis, with investors balking at lofty purchase prices and higher borrowing costs. See New condo sales in the Greater Toronto Area hit 15-year low: “It is dead. I would never use words like this, but I am because […]

Juggling Dynamite - Despite spring market optimism, US Home sales in March posted their most significant decline in more than a year (-4.3% month-over-month–largest monthly decline since November 2022) as 30-year fixed mortgage rates moved back above 7% from just over 6% in early February. See Housing Market Slumps as Mortgage Rates Top 7%. Also, see, This could be the year […]

Juggling Dynamite - China’s epic property bust has left it with a glut of materials and products that it is now exporting globally. This will help ease inflationary pressures and threaten the viability of competitors. As construction at home has dried up, Chinese steel exports have risen 33% year over year, and the excess supply goes far beyond steel to […]

Juggling Dynamite - Under the headlines, policy is having to shift away from favouring investors (who tend to be older) to favouring renters/workers (who tend to be younger). A provincial rule limiting short-term rentals to a homeowner’s principal residence plus one secondary suite or accessory dwelling comes into force in British Columbia on May 1 in 60 communities. […]

April 18th, 2024 | Layoffs Booming in 2024

Juggling Dynamite - Twenty-two US states have seen the three-month moving average of their unemployment rate less the low of the past 12 months rise 50 basis points or more (a ‘recession’ indicator known as the Sahm rule). Since at least 1978, there has never been a time when more than 20 states have seen this degree of […]

Juggling Dynamite - The new Federal Budget released yesterday has significant implications for capital assets held by individuals and corporations. See: Feds raise capital gains inclusion rate to 66.6% starting June 25. The taxable portion increases to two-thirds from one-half on capital gains above $250,000 realized annually by individuals and all capital gains realized by corporations and trusts. This […]

Juggling Dynamite - The latest government initiative to try and keep home prices at unaffordable levels is to extend the term of debt amortization to 30 years from 25 for government-insured mortgages (available where property prices are $1 million or less). Making people debt slaves for even longer does little to help the housing unaffordability and debt weighing […]

Juggling Dynamite - Danielle was a guest with Jacqueline Hansen and Elmer Kim on CBC’s Weekend Business Panel. You can view a video clip of the segment here.

Juggling Dynamite - Frances Donald, chief economist at Manulife Investment Management, and BMO Capital Markets head of US rates strategy Ian Lyngen explain the biggest economic challenges facing the Federal Reserve as the central bank’s 2% inflation target remains elusive. Frances and Ian speak with Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio. Here is a direct video link.

Juggling Dynamite - Four months ago, Fed Fund Futures had priced in the expectation of 6 to 8 US rate cuts (150 to 200 basis points) by the end of 2024. Today, that expectation has retreated to just 40 bps, with a 17% chance of a 25 bp cut in June, down from 50% on Monday. A significant […]

April 10th, 2024 | Debt Stress Pandemic

Juggling Dynamite - US credit card debt topped $1.34 trillion in February, significantly above the cycle tops of around $900 billion in 2008 and 2020 (as shown below since 2003, courtesy of MFHOZ). The interest rate on this debt is above 20%. New car loans (5-year term) at 8.22% are above the 2007 rate peak (shown below courtesy of Liz […]

Juggling Dynamite - Canadian GDP per capita declined for the 6th consecutive quarter in the final quarter of 2023; this means there are less resources per person–the standard of living is in decline.A new RBC study finds that more than half – one million – of 1.9 million new Canadian households by 2030 will not be able to buy a […]

Juggling Dynamite - The median Canadian household income of $85k (Dec 2023) now qualifies for a maximum home price of $496k (assuming 20% down, 25-year amortization, and current mortgage rates (5-year fixed). That’s a problem since the avAdd New Posterage home price is $796k, an impossible 9.4x the median household income. The long-standing affordability rule is a home […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Jobless Rate, Dot Com Bust

Juggling Dynamite - It’s not just crypto that’s lawless; it’s finance and many large corporations. Without equal prosecution and punishment prospects for all, we undermine the rule of law on which democracies depend. Mainstream finance companies that sell themselves as prudent and trustworthy while packaging gambling products to sell to the masses compound the harm. Better Markets CEO […]

April 2nd, 2024 | All In and Then Some

Juggling Dynamite - In every market cycle, once everyone who can or will buy has bought, only sellers remain. Today, households have a record 48% of their financial assets allocated to equities, the same level as the tech top in March 2000 and above the cycle peaks in early 2008 and 2022 (shown below, courtesy of The Daily […]

Juggling Dynamite - The world produces an average of 430 million metric tons of plastic each year. The United States alone produces tens of millions of tons of plastic waste annually. Yet on average, only about 5 to 6 percent of plastic in the U.S. is recycled. NPR correspondent Michael Copley joins Ali Rogin to discuss a new […]

Juggling Dynamite - Economist, David Rosenberg reveals the potential for significant economic downturn and wealth erosion in 2024. With an uncanny blend of humor and insight, he exposes the misleading job reports, the phantom strength of the housing market, and the precarious position of the consumer credit bubble. This discussion stretches beyond the US, offering a grim look […]

Juggling Dynamite - Nationally, the average Canadian home sale price in February 2024 was $719,400, -11.9% from the cycle peak of $816,720 in February 2022. Year-to-date, sixty percent of homes in the Greater Toronto Area sold below their asking price, 71% in Vancouver, and 48% in Calgary (the trend over the past three years is shown below). The […]

March 25th, 2024 | Bottom Not In

Juggling Dynamite - US commercial real estate prices have declined an average of 33% since early 2020, with a 60% decline in the office sector. Similar trends are unfolding in Canada. US office loan delinquencies of 30 to 60 days (dark blue below, courtesy of Bespoke) and over 90 days (light blue) have spiked in the past year […]

Juggling Dynamite - Danielle Park joins Kai Hoffmann for the first time on Soar Financially and examines the disconnect between current market optimism and the underlying economic indicators suggesting a forthcoming hard landing. Drawing on her extensive experience, Park offers a pragmatic outlook on the risks of speculative mania and the importance of cautious investment strategies in today’s […]
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