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Danielle Park

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Portfolio Manager and President of Venable Park Investment Counsel (www.venablepark.com) Ms Park is a financial analyst, attorney, finance author and regular guest on North American media. She is also the author of the best-selling myth-busting book "Juggling Dynamite: An insider's wisdom on money management, markets and wealth that lasts," and a popular daily financial blog: www.jugglingdynamite.com

Juggling Dynamite - For those able to hear truth and facts… Today on the podcast, we’re delighted to welcome back Jeremy Grantham. Jeremy is the long-term investment strategist at his namesake firm, Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co., or GMO, which he cofounded in 1977.  Here is a direct audio link. “Bubbles and enthusiasm, ecstasy, they’re all kind of […]

Juggling Dynamite - US Auto loans that were more than 90 days delinquent in the second quarter were the highest since the second quarter of 2010 (blue line below since 2004, via Arbor Research and The Kobeissi Letter). Auto loan debt held by Americans rose to a record $1.63 trillion (red line), 92% above 2008 levels, while auto […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Should you be pulling your rainy day funds from the stock market?

Juggling Dynamite - Major retailers have noted a pullback in consumer spending, and same-store traffic is down across restaurants this year, particularly at sit-down chains. Most are ramping up discounts and promotions to lure customers. See, After years of Increases, Companies are Rolling Back Prices: Retailers, restaurants and other companies spent years lifting prices. Now that consumers are closing […]

Juggling Dynamite - The results of the easy money experiments from 2009 to 2022 are widely evident: they yielded record indebtedness and unaffordable housing. This was especially true in Canada, where the median household debt to income was 175% in the second quarter of 2024 from 156% in the fourth quarter of 2008. At the same time, the […]

Juggling Dynamite - This morning, US data showed a larger-than-expected increase in people applying for jobless benefits—258k for the week of October 5, versus 230k expected—a 14-month high. There was also a .2% month-over-month increase in headline CPI, double the .1% expected by the consensus. Fewer jobs and a higher cost of living remain an increasing challenge for […]

Juggling Dynamite - In September, across the Greater Toronto Area, there were 204 power-of-sale listings, more than double the 96 reported in September 2023, an increase of 112% year over year and more than triple pre-pandemic levels (chart below since 2020).   See, Power-of-sale listings more than double as mortgage lenders repossess homes from over-leveraged buyers. Finally, reality is dawning […]

October 8th, 2024 | About That Jobs Report…

Juggling Dynamite - Nonfarm Jobs Increased by 245K Last Month, Far Surpassing Estimates. Here is a direct video link. 

Juggling Dynamite - The Chinese government has just unveiled a massive stimulus for its troubled economy, but can it fix the slowdown long-term? What’s at stake for the country, and the world? Here is a direct video link. Leland Miller, China Beige Book CEO, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the state of China’s economy, impact of Beijing’s stimulus package, […]

Juggling Dynamite - CBC News Network’s Weekend Business Panel takes on the top news of the week. Here is a direct video link.

Juggling Dynamite - Canadian businesses are closing at one of the fastest rates in history. See: Canada Just Saw One in Twenty Businesses Close in a Month, Biggest Wave Since the Pandemic. Since the vast majority of private sector job growth is driven by small—to medium-sized companies, it’s not surprising that job vacancies (blue line on the lower right […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Will China’s effort to fire up a lagging Economy work?

Juggling Dynamite - 2024 has seen the most aggressive central bank easing globally since the 2020 pandemic and 2008-09. Whatever ‘stimulus’ impacts may flow from this will filter into the economy over the next few years. In the nearer term, the 22-fold tightening cycle of 2022-2023 will continue to weigh on borrowing and spending ability over the next […]

Juggling Dynamite - Nationally, the supply of new one-family homes in America (shown below since the 1960s) has only been higher in the 2005 housing bubble peak. As more existing homes come on the market from stretched households and investors, home supply is rising in most areas. The median price of a new single-family home fell by 4.6% […]

Juggling Dynamite - Stock markets have soared further on soft landing hopes, just as they initially did when the U.S. Fed cut base rates by 50 basis points in January 2001 and September 2007. Other more prescient leading and coincident economic indicators warn of cause for pause. As shown below (courtesy of Jeff Weniger), the ratio of leading […]

Juggling Dynamite - The Federal Reserve finally began an easing cycle last week, and hopes spring eternal that this will be enough to arrest an ongoing deleveraging cycle, shrinking employment, asset deflation, and economic contraction. Time will tell, but the odds aren’t good. Lest anyone forget, central banks aggressively eased monetary conditions throughout the 2007-09 and 2000-03 downcycles, […]

Juggling Dynamite - The U.S. Federal Reserve slashed interest rates for the first time in four years, and in the same week, Canada’s inflation rate reached the Bank of Canada’s two percent target. Andrew Chang explains why this is prompting economists to predict more aggressive rate cuts are on the horizon. Here is a direct video link.   Canadian […]

September 19th, 2024 | Why Did The Fed Cut Rates?

HoweStreet.com Radio - Canada’s Mortgage rule changes and the expanding Debt Bubble.

Juggling Dynamite - Rising unemployment has overtaken inflation as the dominant fear, and today is expected to bring the Fed’s first rate cut of a new easing cycle. Like Pavlovian dogs, stocks typically rally in anticipation of Fed easing. However, unemployment continued to surge in the eight recessions since 1969, and stock markets eventually fell an average of […]

Juggling Dynamite - In his webcast titled “1984” in remembrance of George Orwell’s dystopian novel, DoubleLine Founder and CEO Jeffrey Gundlach on Sept. 10, 2024, dives “into the subject of the Fed and some of the variables that will likely underpin their logic and their thinking” at the Sept. 18 meeting of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee […]

Juggling Dynamite - Once real estate bubbles bust, prices typically fall for years, and paying down debt becomes the priority. In the process, slashing interest rates does not entice the hoped-for revival of borrowing, and it takes years to rebuild balance sheets. This is now underway in the world’s second-largest economy. Et tu, Canada? Richard Koo, senior adviser […]

Juggling Dynamite - Global oil demand growth is “slowing sharply” as China’s economy cools, pushing prices to a three-year low, the International Energy Agency said. World consumption increased by 800,000 barrels a day in the first half of the year, barely a third of the expansion in the same period of 2023, the adviser to major economies said […]

September 13th, 2024 | Chinese Bust Cycle is Contagious

Juggling Dynamite - From 2019 to 2022, rounds of “free” money courtesy of central banks and governments fuelled gullibility and blind risk-taking in many countries. The effects were particularly short-lived in China, the world’s second-largest economy, where consumer confidence has been moribund over the past three years (below since 2016).   Hampered by relatively low household incomes and […]

September 12th, 2024 | Lacy Hunt Economic Update

Juggling Dynamite - Ted Oakley interviews Dr. Lacy Hunt regarding the U.S. economy, world economy, Federal Reserve, and interest rates. Here is a direct video link. Meanwhile, the effective corporate tax rate for large S&P 500 companies is at a multi-decade low of less than 20 percent (shown below since 1985).  Sustainable?  

Juggling Dynamite - The outlook for small business earnings has been contracting since 2019, retreating below the pandemic bottom in August, with no turnaround yet. The glaring outperformance of S&P 500 operating earnings (in light blue below) above small business earnings since 2023 (dark blue below since 1986) looks unsustainable even as a bullish consensus forecast continued divergence […]
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