ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
Danielle Park
Portfolio Manager and President of Venable Park Investment Counsel (www.venablepark.com) Ms Park is a financial analyst, attorney, finance author and regular guest on North American media. She is also the author of the best-selling myth-busting book "Juggling Dynamite: An insider's wisdom on money management, markets and wealth that lasts," and a popular daily financial blog: www.jugglingdynamite.com
August 12th, 2022 | Grantham: Bear Market Update
Juggling Dynamite - As stocks rebound on disinflation data and hope for less central bank tightening, the tech-heavy Nasdaq is +21% from its June low but remains -18% from its November high. Meanwhile, commodity speculators are back to bidding up prices even as excess inventory of many goods mounts and global demand contracts. Bonne chance tout la monde. […]
August 11th, 2022 | Tracking Grizzly Bears
Juggling Dynamite - This morning (so far), stocks and bonds are rebounding on relief that US CPI in July eased to 8.5% (consensus forecast was 8.7%) from 9.1% in June, suggesting that the US Fed may hike less than 75 bps in September. The drop in price pressure was led primarily by disinflation in used vehicles, air travel, […]
August 10th, 2022 | Contagion Between Public and Private Markets
Juggling Dynamite - The average sale price for a Toronto home in July was $1.02 million (Toronto Regional Real Estate Board), down $133,075 (11.5%) from June 2022 and +0.2 percent or $2,520 compared to July 2021. Sales were down 44%, and active listings were up 25%, while the stockpile of available homes was up 58% from a year […]
August 9th, 2022 | Australian House Prices Dropping at ‘Fastest Rate’ since 2008
Juggling Dynamite - The housing bust is not just happening in Canada… The housing market is turning as interest rate hikes spook buyers – and in bad news for those who don’t own, those rate hikes are also pushing up rents. Here is a direct video link.
August 8th, 2022 | Housing Bear in Early Stages
Juggling Dynamite - As prices rose, industry participants urged policymakers to stimulate supply with tax incentives and enable demand with easy credit; now that home prices are falling (as they should), the same people are urging policymakers to help prop prices up. 😊 Quick profit, not affordability, was always the goal and that golden goose is now dead. The giveback phase […]
August 5th, 2022 | Auto Bubble Deflating
Juggling Dynamite - Ultra-easy credit conditions in 2020-21 conditioned many to think that prices–from vehicles to homes, consumer goods, crypto, stocks, junk debt, et al.–only go up. Painful lessons are the natural aftermath of such misguided thinking. In the July University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, 15% of respondents said that interest rates were now impeding their ability […]
August 4th, 2022 | Bear Market Update
Juggling Dynamite - As of yesterday’s close, the economically sensitive small-cap Russell 2000 index had bounced 15% from June 12 and remained -22% from its October 21, 2021 high. The tech-heavy Nasdaq had rallied 19% since June 16 and remained -21% since November. Canada’s resource and bank-heavy TSX was +7% since July 14’s low and -11% from its […]
August 4th, 2022 | Bear Market Rally, Real Estate, Interest Rates
HoweStreet.com Radio - Cryptos, NFT’s, Free Trading Apps
August 2nd, 2022 | Housing Leading The Economy into Recession
Juggling Dynamite - Eric Basmajian explains what the 2022 housing downturn means for the coming recession. Here is a direct video link. He further reviews the significance of other economic indicators in this audio segment. In Episode 263 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Eric Basmajian. Eric is an economic cycle analyst and the Founder of EPB Macro Research, […]
July 29th, 2022 | Bears are a Series of Ladders and Snakes
Juggling Dynamite - The S&P 500 closes July in its fourth and largest counter-trend rally since beginning the 2022 bear market (green highlights below from my partner Cory Venable)–now just -14% from its January 4th high. Other recessionary bears have included a series of similar rebounds (six in 2000-2003 and five in 2007-09) that all broke to lower […]
July 22nd, 2022 | Easy Money Has Cost a Ton
Juggling Dynamite - For three decades, the theory was that ultra-low interest rates allow borrowers to save on interest costs. In reality, low rates prompt most to borrow more and go deeper into debt. Last year, Bank of Canada (BoC) research acknowledged that thirty years of lower interest rates had worked to inflate home prices and attract capital from productive […]
July 21st, 2022 | Bottoming is a Process
Juggling Dynamite - From the June 17th low to yesterday, the 50 most shorted stocks (in blue below courtesy of DailyShot.com) surged 20% and helped to pull broad stock indices higher (S&P 500 in black gained 7.76%) as speculators covered their bets to book profits. As shown below, courtesy of Michael Kantro, this was the fourth such […]
July 21st, 2022 | Could China’s Economic Downturn Hurt Canada?
HoweStreet.com Radio - Rare Euro Bank Hike Affecting Currencies
July 20th, 2022 | What Happens in China, Doesn’t Stay in China
Juggling Dynamite - In 2021, the median Canadian home price was $531,000 and some 161% of the median Canadian household net worth ($329,000 per the latest available StatsCan data 2019). In February 2022, the average Canadian home price at $816,720 was some 145% of the average Canadian household net worth ($562,000 in 2021). Other studies estimate that real estate makes […]
July 19th, 2022 | Average Canadian Home Sale Price Down 18 Percent Since February
Juggling Dynamite - Canada’s housing market continued to weaken for the third month in June, with an average selling price of $665,850, down 18.5% from a record $816,720 in February 2022. Sharply higher interest rates and some of the world’s most unaffordable home prices have shrunk the pool of able and willing buyers even as Canadian unemployment remains near […]
July 18th, 2022 | China Property Developers Offering Cars and Pigs to Entice Buyers
Juggling Dynamite - As foreign investors and home buyers lose confidence in China’s property market, developers are offering cars and pigs to boost sales. WSJ examines ads and policies to see how the country’s real-estate turmoil could ripple out into the global economy. Here is a direct video link. As shown below via Bloomberg and The Daily Shot.com, Chinese […]
July 16th, 2022 | Layoffs Compound Economic Downturn
Juggling Dynamite - Understanding the link between ultra-loose financial conditions over the past few years and the tech sector boom, jobs, housing, the stock market, and economic growth is key to anticipating the bust contagion. This video segment connects the dots well. Companies like Tesla, JP Morgan, and Zillow have announced layoffs in the last 30 Days. In […]
July 15th, 2022 | Cryptomaina Morphs to Predictable Meltdown
Juggling Dynamite - The crypto space has seen one of history’s most giant and iconic financial bubbles. The circle of leverage on leverage, interconnectedness and mental illness are all classic, as are the predictable aftermath of missing and frozen funds with fleeing founders and a daisy bankruptcy chain. Cryptocurrency prices have crashed in the last few months as […]
July 14th, 2022 | Rate Hikes Compounding Pain for Bloated Real Estate
Juggling Dynamite - The Bank of Canada hiked base rates a whole percentage point yesterday–its most significant one-time increase since 1998–now at 2.5% from .25% four months ago in March. Futures are pricing in a 84% chance that the US Fed will follow suit with its own 1% increase at its next policy meeting on July 27. These […]
July 13th, 2022 | The Demographic Dilemma
Juggling Dynamite - This segment explains the slowing economic impact of an aging population. Immigration is helpful, to be sure, but realistically, several hundred thousand per year of newcomers cannot offset the growth depressing weight exerted by aging millions in the existing population. Demographics have a huge role to play in the U.S. economy. This video will explain […]
July 12th, 2022 | Relative Safety and Liquidity Top Priority in 2022
Juggling Dynamite - As Canadian Rogers customers experienced a national service outage last Friday, the loss of phone, internet, and some banking services underscored the limitations of virtual systems and currencies when power or internet access becomes unavailable. Having some physical cash in the currency we pay our bills has always been a good idea. Meanwhile, cryptos are […]
July 11th, 2022 | Pandemic Consumption Boom Now in Reverse
Juggling Dynamite - EPB macro has a knack for distilling complex macro forces into key trends. This video focuses on US consumption, but the trends are similar in Canada and other major economies. The housing and durable goods sectors are the cyclical engines of economic growth. When these sectors are hot, the whole economy booms. But what happens […]
July 8th, 2022 | Auto Bubble Bursting
Juggling Dynamite - Good overview of the auto bubble now bursting. $1000 a month loan payment #madness. Here is a direct video link.
July 7th, 2022 | Secular Bears End When Animal Spirits Are Crushed
Juggling Dynamite - Secular bear markets begin from a point of mass exuberance and over-valuation and end when they have crushed both into remission. The forward price to earnings (PE) estimate for the S&P 500 in 2000 was 26 versus a long-term mean of 16 (as shown below). It fell to the 22-year mean of 16 in June, […]
July 7th, 2022 | Recession, Inflation, Interest Rates
HoweStreet.com Radio - Is Canada more vulnerable than US to economic downturn?