ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
Danielle Park
Portfolio Manager and President of Venable Park Investment Counsel (www.venablepark.com) Ms Park is a financial analyst, attorney, finance author and regular guest on North American media. She is also the author of the best-selling myth-busting book "Juggling Dynamite: An insider's wisdom on money management, markets and wealth that lasts," and a popular daily financial blog: www.jugglingdynamite.com
November 2nd, 2022 | Why the 2022 Housing Shortage is Over
Juggling Dynamite - Eric’s presentation illuminates the components of housing supply and how it impacts prices. The Housing Shortage has been one of the most popular stories in real estate and the economy over the last year. You see headlines about the lack of inventory driving up home prices everywhere you look. Many said home prices would not […]
November 1st, 2022 | And So The Cycle Goes
Juggling Dynamite - Canadian monthly home sales in September were -32% year-over-year and 12% below the pre-pandemic 10-year average for September (chart below since 2007 courtesy of Martin Pelletier). October sales appear to have been worse. Many who bought properties during the 2020-2022 frenzy are now underwater in terms of resale value. Others refinanced existing properties to extract equity […]
October 31st, 2022 | Housing Led Recession Just Getting Started
Juggling Dynamite - In the video, we will analyze economic data that could predict the coming housing crash. We will look at monetary liquidity, mortgage rates, home price-to-income ratios, builder sentiment, and more to determine a probable path forward for the U.S. housing market. The headwind facing further central bank hiking is that the global credit impulse (movement […]
October 26th, 2022 | Bank of Canada Blinks, Stocks Should Next
Juggling Dynamite - Too loose for too long, central banks have responded to lagging inflationary pressures in 2022 with the sharpest six-month tightening cycle on record. The Bank of Canada (BOC) was in the batter’s box this morning and after raising its policy rate to 3% last month from .25 in January, had telegraphed another +.75bps for today. […]
October 26th, 2022 | Is the Bank of Canada Deliberately Aiming for Recession?
HoweStreet.com Radio - Household debt, mortgage foreclosures, China home prices
October 25th, 2022 | Biblical Mean Reversion in Motion
Juggling Dynamite - Subprime loan delinquency rates are higher than the 2008 recession levels today, with unemployment still near all-time lows and the layoff cycle just beginning… Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley to ring the alarm bell about the housing and auto markets, which by her reading of the data […]
October 22nd, 2022 | Danielle on CBC Weekend Business Panel
Juggling Dynamite - Danielle was a guest with Elmer Kim and host John Northcott on the CBC Weekend Business Panel today. You can watch a video clip of the segment here.
October 21st, 2022 | EPB Macro: Four Stages of the Economic Slowdown, Update
Juggling Dynamite - On today’s episode of “On the Margin”, Eric Basmajian, Founder of EPB Macro Research joins the show for an update on his “Four Stages of An Economic Slowdown” episode of On The Margin released in April of 2022. Here is a direct video link.
October 19th, 2022 | Yields Lead Housing, Unemployment and Stocks
Juggling Dynamite - The US National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), designed to gauge market conditions, fell to 38 in October from 46 in September, now 50% lower than it was six months ago (below 50 is considered negative), and the largest year over year decline in history. Builders cite higher interest rates […]
October 18th, 2022 | Record Tightening Priced into Treasuries, Equities Not Yet
Juggling Dynamite - As shown below, since 1999, courtesy of The Daily Shot, the US 10-year minus 2-year Treasury bond yield spread at -.52 last week was the most negative since the onset of the 2001-02 and 2007-09 US recessions. An imminent recession is also predicted by Bloomberg probability models that now forecast a 100% likelihood of a US […]
October 17th, 2022 | Marketplace Looks at Canadian Mortgage Fraud
Juggling Dynamite - Easy credit and speculative frenzy enabled an extended bull market in fraud. As financial liquidity retreats a plethora of reckless and illegal activities are being laid bare. We go undercover to investigate mortgage brokers and real estate agents perpetrating mortgage fraud for a fee, securing commissions by submitting fake documents for approval. Here is a direct […]
October 14th, 2022 | EPB Macro: October 2022 Monthly Cyclical Trends Update
Juggling Dynamite - EPB Macro does an excellent job of summarizing key trends in economic and market data. The latest Monthly Cyclical Trends Update: October 2022 is out today for subscribers only, but Eric has generously allowed me to share the video overview with my readers below. Twenty-one minutes worth watching. The [Monthly Cyclical Trends Update] is a once-per-month, […]
October 12th, 2022 | The Everything Bust Will Take Some Time
Juggling Dynamite - Yesterday, Canada’s TSX stock index closed at 18,215, breaking below its previous July low of 18,329. As I noted in Tech leading lower, the February 2020 high of 17,944 is the next price test on deck for the TSX. As of today’s open, the Canadian benchmark is -18% since March and just 1.5% above where it […]
October 12th, 2022 | US Dollar, Interest Rates, Inflation, Real Estate
HoweStreet.com Radio - Politicians, Regulators and “Insider” Trading
October 11th, 2022 | Self-Dealing is Rampant and We Keep Paying For It
Juggling Dynamite - Self-dealing is when a fiduciary acts in their own best interest in a transaction. It is text-book corruption and apparently widespread among government and regulatory representatives on the left and the right. Undermining objectively determined policies and the rule of law is indefensible and socially destructive, so why do we tolerate it? See Government officials invest in companies […]
October 10th, 2022 | Tech Leading Lower
Juggling Dynamite - Technology shares led overall markets higher from 2020 through 2021 as government hand-outs, low-interest rates, and spare time enabled both a retail spending boom and a gambling frenzy in financial markets. From the March 20, 2020, COVID crash lows of 6,879, the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index broke through 10,000 by July 2020 (not 3 months […]
October 6th, 2022 | Remember, USD Love is Cyclical Not Permanent
Juggling Dynamite - With most assets dropping in 2022, the US dollar (DXY) has been a rare standout, up 25% against a basket of global trade currencies since December 20, 2020, and 17% year to date. As with most trends, it’s common for humans to expect the status quo to continue indefinitely. Nothing ever does. After bouncing for […]
October 4th, 2022 | Fed Intent on Crushing Inflation
Juggling Dynamite - Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence, is joining us today. She was a former advisor to the Dallas Federal Reserve during the great financial crisis, working with Richard Fisher, and she’s author of the book Fed Up. Here is a direct video link.
October 3rd, 2022 | No Average Climate
Juggling Dynamite - Everywhere today, conversations are being had about what is happening in asset markets and the economy. Many people are in varying degrees of concern, alarm, and distress. Few are yet in a panic. History assures us that they will be. While 60.9% of investors surveyed in September were bearish in sentiment, as shown below courtesy […]
September 27th, 2022 | Housing Bubble Deflating
Juggling Dynamite - This video presents the US housing dynamics well. Unfortunately, after many similar factors, the Canadian housing excesses are even greater and the downside bigger. Home prices have greatly outpaced average persons disposable income. In the video we will explain what this means for the U.S. Housing market and how home prices corrected during similar housing […]
September 27th, 2022 | Central Banks, Inflation, Interest Rates, Mortgage Rates, Pensions
HoweStreet.com Radio - Money Laundering, Snow Laundering
September 26th, 2022 | Private Equity Losses Not Yet Booked
Juggling Dynamite - Public pensions have reported a median -7.9% for the fiscal year ended June 30–their biggest loss since 2009 (data published in The Wall Street Journal). This figure reflected the returns for traditional publicly traded investments like stocks and bonds to the end of the second quarter. However, illiquid assets, including private equity funds (PE), represented nearly a […]
September 23rd, 2022 | ‘Snow-Washing’ in Canada, Money Laundering All Star
Juggling Dynamite - I have long thought that a housing bust and ugly recession might finally catalyze a serious crackdown on money laundering in Canada. Apathy has been the status quo while asset prices were rising. Now, as prices plunge and pain spreads, public tolerance should shift. Realty reports show that many properties bought in early 2022 are […]
September 22nd, 2022 | Operation ‘Break Things’ To Continue
Juggling Dynamite - Hiking the US Fed funds rate a further .75 yesterday, now 3 to 3.25% (from 0 to .25% in March), Chair Powell acknowledged that unemployment will rise, adding: “Nonetheless, we’re committed to getting inflation back down to 2%.” Powell reiterated that his board plans to raise US base rates a further 1.25% (4.25 to 4.5%) by […]
September 19th, 2022 | 2022: Three Quarters of Pain and Counting
Juggling Dynamite - As we start the third week of September, with the US Fed’s much-telegraphed rate hike on Wednesday (+.75 with some 30% betting odds of a full percent!), markets are peaked. Bitcoin (-71%) continues to lead the crypto Ponzi down the back side of heartbreak hill. So far, the S&P 500 -20%, the Nasdaq -29%, and […]