HoweStreet.com Radio - Protecting yourself in shaky financial times

Juggling Dynamite - Moody’s just announced a downgrade of its outlook on the entire US banking system to negative from stable to reflect “the rapid deterioration in the operating environment following deposit runs at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Silvergate Bank, and Signature Bank (SNY) and the failures of SVB and SNY.” Danielle explains the nuances of recent developments in the […]

Juggling Dynamite -   The Silicon Valley Bank (SVB, founded in 1984) and Signature Bank (publicly traded since 2004) closures over the weekend are the second and third largest US bank failures in history (the largest eight failed banks in assets and deposits, are shown below).   Banking failures tend to be contagious. To quell depositor fears, the […]

Juggling Dynamite - The US dollar touched a five-month high against the loonie this week (shown below since late 2020, courtesy of my partner Cory Venable) as the Bank of Canada held at 4.5% and hawkish talk from the US Fed increased odds of a US overnight rate of 5% on March 22. With recessionary data and credit […]

Juggling Dynamite - Well explained, as usual. In this video, we discuss why most of the market was unable to predict the current 2023 housing crash and how this housing meltdown could continue to unfold into the rest of 2023. Here is a direct video link. In January, the combination of a 15% price cut and lower mortgage rates […]

Juggling Dynamite - FOMC chair Powell disappointed equity markets this week with testimony reiterating his insistence that financial conditions must keep tightening (through higher for longer interest rates and ongoing balance sheet reduction “QT”) amid growing strife throughout the world economy. Indeed, Powell unapologetically explained (and he’s correct) that higher unemployment, lower economic activity and less financial speculation […]

Juggling Dynamite - Excellent data and cogent observations in this segment. Danielle DiMartino Boooth fom “Quill Intelligence” discusses the economy and what you can do to prepare for when the masked collapse happens. Here is a direct video link.

Juggling Dynamite - As mentioned in the segment below, in America, more than 90% of mortgages are fixed for terms greater than ten years, and 95% of existing mortgages are at rates less than presently on offer. And yet, as shown below, since 1977, US mortgage payments to income are already at unaffordability levels seen in the last […]

Juggling Dynamite - Tesla’s 2023 Investor Day on March 1, 2023, outlined important context and data for the global transition to electrified energy and transportation. The big-picture data presented here are not new. They have been verified and published by other scientists and engineering experts in this space, including Stanford’s Mark Z. Jacobson and The Solutions Project. And yet, most people are […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Commercial properties struggling to stay afloat

Juggling Dynamite - The US Money Supply has contracted 1.7% over the last 12 months (graphed below, courtesy of Charlie Bilello)–the largest year-over-year decline on record (data back to 1959). Many other countries, like Canada, have seen a similar trend. This massive liquidity reversal is a formidable headwind for asset markets globally over the next few quarters. At […]

Juggling Dynamite - Thirteen years of ultra-loose monetary conditions, followed by the sharpest tightening cycle in 40 years, have wrought record household debt service payments (in orange below, courtesy of The Daily Shot) and a record low savings ratio (grey line) Year-over-year growth in consumer debt payments since 2020 (blue line below since 1986, courtesy of Morgan Stanley) has […]

Juggling Dynamite - Humans can be so bright and innovative when they try to be…thankfully, many people are. Renewable rooftop power will play a vital role in the decentralised community grid systems of the future. Getting every ounce of power out of available rooftop spaces will be key to making that transition a success. Now a Dutch firm […]

Juggling Dynamite - This segment offers another worthwhile macro overview.  High-risk warning on the defence and gold mining stock “trade ideas,” as Dave says, only “for those with ice in their veins.” Word to the wise. “There’s not a snowball’s chance in hell we hit the lows in the stock market in advance of a big bond rally.” “I think […]

Juggling Dynamite - GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham’s latest market letter is worth the read as usual; see After a timeout, back to the meat grinder! On equities, Grantham’s base case is that the S&P 500 could fall a further 20% by year-end, for a total real decline of 40% since 2022. My calculations of trendline value of the S&P 500, […]

Juggling Dynamite - Surging home inventories and mean-reverting prices are excellent for those seeking attractive entry opportunities. But housing downcycles have historically taken an average of four years to bottom. So, patience and cycle foresight are key. The segment below offers some good insight into housing dynamics in different US cities. As in Canada, the areas with the […]

Juggling Dynamite - Danielle Park of Venable Park Investment Counsel presents her view on Federal Reserve policy, how it ties in with the policy of the Bank of Canada, and the leading indicators she thinks investors should be paying the most attention to.  

Juggling Dynamite - Good updates in this segment on larger trends in inflation, employment and consumption. Consumer Prices Accelerated in Jan, but Annual Growth Slowed. Here is a direct video link. Meanwhile, as shown below, half of Americans recently surveyed report that their financial situation is worse today than a year ago (dotted line below since 1975). Just 35% […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - GDP, Cost of Living

Juggling Dynamite - Innovative, hard-working people worldwide are focused on ever more efficient, low-cost energy storage, and human ingenuity is winning. NEW Sodium, Aluminum battery is 15X cheaper than sodium or lithium. Here is a direct video link.

Juggling Dynamite - The speakers take a few minutes to turn on their cameras in this segment, but they get there, and ECRI’s economic cycle update is always worth a listen. Big picture context is useful in avoiding common financial mistakes. Lakshman Achuthan is being interviewed by Dale Pinkert during the F.A.C.E. webinar. Lakshman is calling the pullback […]

Juggling Dynamite - Our coverage of the VRIC continues with a discussion about the U.S. dollar, and it’s status as a reserve currency, including the role gold plays in protecting wealth and how the dollar’s dominance affects the broader market. Brent Johnson, Danielle Park, Grant Williams, and Russell Gray give their opinions on what is often a hotly […]

Juggling Dynamite - The US Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) is used by monetary policymakers to gauge credit conditions. Over the past year, banks have reported tighter lending standards on commercial loans to small, large and middle-market firms (blue bars below since 1990, courtesy of The Daily Shot). This indicator has traditionally led US corporate […]

Juggling Dynamite - So far in 2023, value-indiscriminate buyers are still pounding into the riskiest low-yielding assets with wild abandon. Take BBB-rated bonds-whose credit quality is just one level above “junk.” At past cycle bottoms (attractive investment opportunities), the US Fed had raised short-term rates enough that defaults spiked and BBB bond prices fell more than 20%–enough to […]

Juggling Dynamite - This segment reviews US data, but the trends are similar in Canada. The EPB Housing Deep Dive report is focused on the residential construction cycle (the leading sector of the economy). Here is a direct video link. This report is a preview of content exclusive to members of the EPB Research Gold Tier. If you would […]