ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
Danielle Park
Portfolio Manager and President of Venable Park Investment Counsel (www.venablepark.com) Ms Park is a financial analyst, attorney, finance author and regular guest on North American media. She is also the author of the best-selling myth-busting book "Juggling Dynamite: An insider's wisdom on money management, markets and wealth that lasts," and a popular daily financial blog: www.jugglingdynamite.com
January 17th, 2024 | Outlook Weakening Under Equity Market Optimsim
Juggling Dynamite - January US Empire Manufacturing reading this morning was -43.7, much worse than the -5 estimated and much weaker than during the 2008 financial crisis/great recession. Meanwhile, the analyst consensus is for S&P earnings per share growth of more than 10 percent over the next 12 months (red line below since 2000, courtesy of Mikael Sarwe) even […]
January 16th, 2024 | Rate Cuts Come as Demand-Driven Economy Slows
Juggling Dynamite - The Bank of Canada’s (BOC’s) Business Outlook Survey for the fourth quarter of 2023 found that 40% of Canadian companies were experiencing a slowdown in sales. Indicators of future sales – including order books, advance bookings, and sales inquiries – remain subdued. See: Bank of Canada surveys show weak business environment, lower inflation expectations. The dour outlook […]
January 12th, 2024 | Rate Cuts Come in Response To Intensifying Financial Strife
Juggling Dynamite - With inflation cooling and unemployment rising, rate cuts are coming into view. Permanent job losses have already accelerated in line with the onset of the past three recessions since 1995 (see arrows and grey bars below, courtesy of Game of Trades). Since 1969, the longest Fed pause time between the last rate hike and […]
January 12th, 2024 | Interest Rate Cuts Equal Good Times?
HoweStreet.com Radio - US Bitcoin ETF, Interest Rates, Car Theft, Arson
January 11th, 2024 | Prices Fall and Home Listings Rise as Canadians Struggle with Overhead
Juggling Dynamite - When Canadians sell a property for less than is owed in the mortgage, lenders are entitled to pursue any balance remaining plus interest, fees, and legal costs; this includes garnishing bank accounts and income. For those in debt strife, it’s wise to speak with an Insolvency Trustee to consider if you may be a candidate […]
January 10th, 2024 | Financial Predation is Major Throughline
Juggling Dynamite - There are so many incredible developments in financial markets right now it isn’t easy to choose what to write about. And there are so many complex interconnections. Suffice it to say the throughlines are rampant financial fraud and unusually high capital risk, with very few people positioned to prosper in 2024. Just one area of […]
January 9th, 2024 | Speculative Builds Adding To Deflationary Pressure in Real Estate
Juggling Dynamite - During the supply disruptions of the pandemic, stockpiling became an international obsession and warehouse space was in high demand. That’s reversing now. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the US had 5.2% of warehouse space empty versus 4.7% in 2019. Construction doesn’t turn on a dime, though. Hundreds of millions of new square footage are […]
January 8th, 2024 | Recession Alarm with No False Positives
Juggling Dynamite - There has never been an incidence in history where the US Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) had a six-month average growth rate sub -4.5%, and the US economy did not enter an NBER-defined recession. The six-month smoothed LEI growth rate in November was -7.5% (chart below since 2000, courtesy of ISABELNET.com) and has been […]
January 5th, 2024 | Financial Cycle Behavior is Consistent
Juggling Dynamite - In June 1999, the US Fed began an 11-month rate hiking cycle that took the overnight rate from 4.75 to 6.5% by May 2000. Amid tech-mania-inspired irrational exuberance, the S&P 500 hit 1527 by March 2000, sold off into the summer, and rebounded to double top at 1521 by September on soft-landing forecasts. What unfolded […]
January 4th, 2024 | Home Listings Rise as Sales Stagnate
Juggling Dynamite - Rebounding Treasury bond prices have lowered mortgage rates from their cycle high in October, but home prices at current mortgage rates are still painfully unaffordable for most. The Bank of Canada estimates that 45% of Canadian homeowners saw their mortgage payments rise in 2023, and 50% of mortgages initiated before March 2022 will face higher […]
January 3rd, 2024 | 2024 Starts Rough
Juggling Dynamite - Assets bid up by irrational amounts eventually end up on clearance sale. Always. This is something to remember with the seven most expensive tech companies ending 2023 at their October 2021 price peaks (chart shown below, courtesy of All Star Charts), even while the Fed funds rate has moved from .25 to 5.5% and earnings […]