ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
Danielle Park
Portfolio Manager and President of Venable Park Investment Counsel (www.venablepark.com) Ms Park is a financial analyst, attorney, finance author and regular guest on North American media. She is also the author of the best-selling myth-busting book "Juggling Dynamite: An insider's wisdom on money management, markets and wealth that lasts," and a popular daily financial blog: www.jugglingdynamite.com
July 12th, 2023 | Corporate Bankruptcy Wave Just Started
Juggling Dynamite - Unlike government bonds that typically rise while stock prices fathom bear market lows, higher-risk corporate bonds tend to fall with risk appetite and equity prices. That trend has held over the past 15 months as most corporate securities have lost value. As US junk bond prices have tumbled, their yields have risen to around 8.75% […]
July 11th, 2023 | Yields Testing Resistance (and Nerves)
Juggling Dynamite - The Visual Capitalist chart below shows the pace (in months) and percentage points of Fed hiking cycles since 1988 and confirms that the 2022-23 cycle (in yellow) has, by far, been the sharpest in at least 35 years. In the process, interest-sensitive assets–commodities, bonds, equities and real estate–have all sold off. In the last week, […]
July 7th, 2023 | Higher Debt Costs Are Economic Death By A Thousand Cuts
Juggling Dynamite - Fed minutes on Wednesday telegraphed that voting members plan another 25 bps rate hike this month and 25 more by November. Market implied rates are shown below in blue versus expectations last week (pre-minutes) in orange. While rate cuts are expected to follow from December 2023 through September 2024, the magnitude of easing anticipated is […]
July 6th, 2023 | Insolvency Bull Market
Juggling Dynamite - Insolvency trustees are the financial undertakers. They endured a bear market when easy credit enabled extend and pretend habits for the masses. Now the undertakers are entering a boom time as their phones “ring off the hook.” Hoyes, Michalos published Canadian stats through the end of May and included this chart. Other trustee firms are also feeling […]
July 5th, 2023 | Protracted Hangover For Real Estate Investors and Lenders
Juggling Dynamite - The seemingly endless party of growth in real estate supported by ever-cheaper finance has reached an end, with a protracted hangover now ahead. This has broad implications for the many sectors that feed off real estate and is why realty-led recessions have historically been the harshest. See, Industries that rely on thriving downtowns suffer, and Office turmoil […]
July 2nd, 2023 | Worst is Yet To Come For Stocks
Juggling Dynamite - Some lucid assessments in this segment. When the road ahead is uncertain, there’s no wiser choice than to listen to those with experience – who have seen enough market cycles to judge what’s most likely to happen next. Today we’re fortunate to welcome financial advisor Ted Oakley, managing partner & founder of Oxbow Advisors. Ted […]
June 30th, 2023 | Sober Time
Juggling Dynamite - After debauchery comes the hangover; this one is far-reaching. Demand for pricey timepieces from the top Swiss brands has cooled amid slowing economies, higher interest rates and the crash in cryptocurrencies, according to data compiled by London-based Subdial, a dealer in pre-owned watches. Prices peaked in February of last year following an unprecedented surge during […]
June 29th, 2023 | Repurposing and Repricing Real Estate
Juggling Dynamite - Between 2010 and 2022, increasingly slack monetary conditions added trillions to the global money supply, and it was all looking for something to do. Some flowed into ideas and efforts to improve life on Earth. A lot more was thrown at unproductive, counter-productive and mathematically challenged pursuits. Private and public investment funds ballooned on the […]
June 29th, 2023 | Inflation Now Slowing Luxury Purchases
HoweStreet.com Radio - The set up for the commercial retail glut started a decade ago
June 28th, 2023 | Leaping Short-Term Rental Supply
Juggling Dynamite - A survey from rental site Vacasa showed that 90% of summer travelers this year changed their plans for travel to be more budget-friendly, including choosing driving over flying or choosing a cheaper day to travel. At the same time, active US short-term rental listings reached 1.4 million in April 2023, an 18% jump compared to the […]
June 27th, 2023 | Credit Contagion Drives Distressed Selling in Real Estate
Juggling Dynamite - Thirteen years of record-low interest rates drove record public and private capital into all forms of real estate and related credit/securities from 2010-2022. Now, sharply higher interest rates and contracting credit on offer are bursting the bubble as forced sales rise. One broker estimates that 90 percent of office buildings in New York were distressed […]
June 26th, 2023 | Taleb on Looming Crisis: The Risk is in Front of Us
Juggling Dynamite - Nassim Taleb, Universa Investments scientific advisor and author of ‘The Black Swan’, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the markets and economy, why a bubble is looming, the state of cryptocurrency, and more. Here is a direct video link.
June 25th, 2023 | Recessions Come with Bear Markets
Juggling Dynamite - David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss U.S. Fed chair Jerome Powell’s latest comments. He says a recession certainly will happen, and we’re at or near the end of the tightening cycle. Here is a direct video link. Caveats noted on the Japan comment: global decoupling is not a thing, […]
June 24th, 2023 | Housing Inflation Keeping Central Banks Hawkish
Juggling Dynamite - Falling average hours worked is leading consumer demand lower while housing inflation is keeping central banks hawkish for longer than in past cycles. Nasty combo. Chris Harvey, Wells Fargo Securities head of equity strategy, and Frances Donald, Manulife Investment Management chief economist and strategist, join ‘The Exchange’ to discuss the case for a recession in […]
June 23rd, 2023 | Near Half of New Canadian Mortgages Have Amortizations >30 Years
Juggling Dynamite - Near half of all new Canadian mortgages taken out in the first quarter of 2023 had amortization lengths longer than 30 years. In addition, as interest rates have leapt since 2022, a significant number of existing variable-rate mortgage holders have paid less than the interest owing, causing principal balances, repayment years and financial risk to […]
June 22nd, 2023 | Equifax: Canadian Business Revolving Debt is “Worrying Trend”
Juggling Dynamite - New data from Equifax shows that in the first quarter of 2023, Canadian businesses increased their credit card balances by 15 percent and lines of credit by 11 percent while the total balance outstanding on bank-issued installment loans fell 2.4 percent. See Businesses’ changing credit usage a “worrying trend”: Equifax. Jeff Brown, head of commercial solutions […]
June 21st, 2023 | Home Buyer Math is Bonkers for Most
Juggling Dynamite - Many homes for sale in our area north of Toronto are priced in the $2 million range–many have been on the market for months now. If we do some math, we can appreciate why. Online calculators allow us to model numbers. To buy a $2,000,000 home with 20% down (400k) at a mortgage rate of 4.99% […]
June 20th, 2023 | Monetary Policy Magnifying Economic Downturn Most in Decades
Juggling Dynamite - The latest rebound in equity prices has pulled the S&P 500 and Canada’s TSX back to levels seen two years ago in June/July 2021. In the process, bullish sentiment among professional and retail participants is back to the highest readings since November 2021, and the spike in Google searches for “bull market” (below, since 2018, […]
June 19th, 2023 | Scarce and Expensive Funding Brings Financial Sobriety
Juggling Dynamite - There’s a timeless adage that when money is cheap and easy, many people do dumb things with it. When money was free and easy (2010 through 2022), dumb things were all the rage. In 2021, $346 billion was handed out to startups by US venture capital firms alone, averaging more than $86 billion a […]
June 15th, 2023 | “Skip”, QT and High For Longer–Not Bullish
Juggling Dynamite - A world of bullish commentators asserts that Fed pauses are positive, even though the worst economic and stock market downturns have always come after the Federal Reserve stops tightening. After ten consecutive rate increases and the sharpest rate of change since 1980–yesterday, Fed Chair Powell announced a “skip” with ongoing quantitative tightening (QT) and possibly […]
June 15th, 2023 | The Fed Needs To Get Housing Prices Down
HoweStreet.com Radio - Long term high rates would clean out companies that need culling
June 14th, 2023 | Lagging Shelter Costs Mask Magnitude of Disinflation Unfolding
Juggling Dynamite - Shelter costs account for a whopping one-third of the US consumer price index (CPI). Ex-shelter, the other two-thirds of CPI components deflated 0.1% month over month in May and were a tame +2.1% year-over-year (close to the official 2% CPI target). Higher home and rent prices were significant factors in spiking inflation between 2020 and […]
June 13th, 2023 | Disinflation Offers Cause For Pause
Juggling Dynamite - May’s US CPI at 4%–the lowest since March 2021–has increased the prospects of a Fed pause tomorrow; a July hike remains possible. But as I’ve pointed out for months, pauses are not bullish; historically, they’ve preceded the steepest part of economic and market downturns. The good news for consumers (but not corporate profits) is that recessions […]
June 12th, 2023 | Full Cycle Bearings
Juggling Dynamite - The S&P 500 is up 11% YTD (below in brown); the Nasdaq nearly 33%; and the TSX is +2.5%. Under the hood, a 53% year-to-date average gain for the seven most expensive US tech companies has done the lifting (in green below since December 2022), while the other 493 S&P 500 companies (in orange) have […]
June 10th, 2023 | Technology Enabling Brighter Future
Juggling Dynamite - With Canada battling horrible forest fires, there is good news: we have solutions to stop compounding the harm. Along with sending well wishes and support to those directly impacted, individuals are each called to evolve and help lead the change. Keeping ourselves apprised of rapidly advancing technology is a first step. The clips below help. […]