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Danielle Park

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Portfolio Manager and President of Venable Park Investment Counsel (www.venablepark.com) Ms Park is a financial analyst, attorney, finance author and regular guest on North American media. She is also the author of the best-selling myth-busting book "Juggling Dynamite: An insider's wisdom on money management, markets and wealth that lasts," and a popular daily financial blog: www.jugglingdynamite.com

Juggling Dynamite - Will spreading strife in banks prompt the US Fed to pause its tightening efforts this month? We will soon find out. Some worthwhile insights in this segment… We’ve had the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th largest bank failures in American history in the last two months, notes Jim Bianco. He discusses what collapse of First Republic […]

Juggling Dynamite - An April 2023 NBER paper warns that the Fed’s rapid tightening actions since 2022 were a monetary shock that has negative economic impacts for this year and next. Mind the lags. See Does Monetary Policy Matter? The Narrative Approach after 35 years; the conclusion: “Based on the empirical estimates of the effect of previous shocks, one would expect substantial negative impacts […]

Juggling Dynamite - A decade of near-zero policy rates allowed banks to boost profits by paying next to nothing on customer deposits from 2011-2021. Then, everything changed. Below is a list of the largest seven US bank failures by asset size courtesy of BankRate.com.  Suddenly and all at once, three of the four largest have happened over the last […]

Juggling Dynamite - Hoisington Investment Management’s First Quarter 2023 Review and Outlook is now available; see Financial Cycles lead Business Cycles. The bottom line is that (lagging) inflation is receding with economic activity. Rising unemployment and higher government bond prices (falling yields) are par for this course as riskier assets keep losing lift. “…with low or declining economic activity, […]

April 22nd, 2023 | Back to ZIRP?

Juggling Dynamite - Good big picture discussion in this segment. When today’s guest was last on this program in early February, he warned that markets were “in La La Land” — meaning they were too optimistic at a time the macro data was warning of an approaching recession. Well, here we are, a quarter later and — after […]

Juggling Dynamite - About 200 companies in the TSX Composite index are expected to report Q1 earnings over the next month. Although it’s typical for companies to “beat” lowered earning estimates, the earnings trend is recessionary, with a second sequential quarter of negative growth in 10 of 11 sectors. See Factset, Canada Earnings Season Preview Q1 2023: Analysts lowered […]

Juggling Dynamite - Mark Z. Jacobson’s latest book No Miracles Needed. How today’s technology can save our planet and clean our air lays out the facts on why and how we transition to more efficient, cheaper, cleaner energy. He offers an excellent overview in the presentation below and answers common questions and concerns at the end. Well worth listening! Understand the […]

Juggling Dynamite - Believe it or not, the violent monetary tightening of the last 13 months has only started to be felt throughout the economy. Job losses are just beginning to drive the lagging unemployment rate up from cycle lows. As risk markets rebounded of late (again) in the prospect of coming rate cuts, the credit crunch lies […]

Juggling Dynamite - The sharpest monetary contraction in decades (US M2 below since 1960) has hit highly leveraged people and sectors like a meteorite from outer space. After twelve years of TINA reaching for yield and levered gambling, a new financial mantra is sweeping the land: survival. Real estate investors are increasingly responding to the math of higher […]

Juggling Dynamite - David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, joins BNN Bloomberg for his reaction to Canada’s latest rate hike decision. Rosenberg adds investors should be focusing on what the BoC will say 6 months from now as the jobs market will be completely different. Here is a direct video link.   Recessions are a regularly recurring […]

Juggling Dynamite - We welcome back a very special guest, and that is billionaire and legendary investor Mr. Jeremy Grantham. I have been continuously amazed at how accurately Jeremy has been predicting future events over the last couple of years that we’ve been chatting. Still, it should be no surprise because he’s one of the few who have […]

Juggling Dynamite - As mortgage rates have more than doubled year-over-year, defaults are spreading through the commercial property space, from offices to shopping centers and rental apartments. A record $151.8 billion backed by US rental apartment buildings is up for renewal this year, and $940.1 billion over the next five years (Trepp data). The good news for tenants […]

Juggling Dynamite - A negative US 10-year minus 3-month yield spread has signalled every incoming recession of the last 60 years (grey bars below courtesy of Charlie Bilello). The current reading, at -1.67%, is the most negative ever recorded. Still, bullish hopes spring eternal. While most economically-sensitive sectors have floundered for two years: small cap stocks (-27% from […]

Juggling Dynamite - Taleb is a character, to be sure, and he offers many cogent insights in this segment. I especially resonate with the idea that, unlike sales skills, expertise comes from first-hand risk work: seeing what goes wrong and cleaning up mistakes and messes; then designing systems and approaches to minimize the impact of bad outcomes. The […]

Juggling Dynamite - Some seniors across Ontario are at risk of losing their homes in an elaborate scam that involves door-to-door equipment rental contracts, low-quality renovations and unaffordable high-interest mortgages. Marketplace speaks to people who feel they’ve been scammed, some on the brink of losing their homes and someone who already has. Here is a direct video link.

Juggling Dynamite - Komal Sri Kumar, Sri-Kumar Global Strategies president, on Loretta Mester’s recent comments on the federal funds rate, what the yield curve tells investors, and more. Here is a direct video link. The chart below (courtesy of True Insights) shows the gap between the US Fed’s stated expectations for a 5.13% policy rate through the end of […]

Juggling Dynamite - The past year has seen the most aggressive Fed tightening cycle in at least 30 years (see the chart below as of March 30, 2023, courtesy of Isabelnet.com). Base effects matter a lot; coming off a decade of constant QE and near-zero interest rates, the “normalizing” of monetary conditions this cycle is particularly acute at […]

April 3rd, 2023 | Eyes On The Prize

Juggling Dynamite - Bear markets can be psychologically trying as interim rallies may obfuscate ongoing downtrends. Markets are liquidity junkies and repeatedly anticipate that central banks will pause and return to easing credit conditions (typically a few months after a pause). As with tightening, however, the bulk of easing effects are not felt until many months after they’re […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - The problems that caused the recent banking crisis not solved

Juggling Dynamite - Companies pushing up share prices with buybacks (while their executives sell personal holdings into the flow) have greatly supported stock prices (and executive compensation) over the past decade. The party was planned to continue in 2023 with a record $360 billion in buybacks authorized year-to-date. But, as usual, something unexpected happened on easy money street: […]

Juggling Dynamite - Over the past year, bonds and mortgage-backed securities dropped in value as central banks hiked base rates in the banking system—that’s interest rate risk. The sound ones also rebound in value as central banks pause and then start cutting rates again. But that doesn’t mean these instruments all have the same risk profile. Government bonds […]

Juggling Dynamite - Danielle was a guest with Dennis Mitchell and Hillary Johnstone on the CBC Weekend Business Panel. Here is a direct video link.

March 24th, 2023 | Financial Stress Spreading

Juggling Dynamite - Deutsche Bank shares are off more than 10% this morning as credit default swaps on its senior euro debt blow out. Contagion fears are spreading after Credit Suisse’s shot-gun sale last weekend. Other banks are tumbling in sympathy. As shown below courtesy of Blomberg, financial shares have plunged sharply in the last month; see Deutsche Bank […]

March 23rd, 2023 | Fed Wrecking Ball

Juggling Dynamite - With consumer credit conditions already as tight as the 2008 financial crisis (shown below courtesy of The Daily Shot), yesterday, the US Fed hiked its overnight rate 25 bps to the highest level since September 2007 (4.75 to 5%). After insisting in 2021 that the Fed would not even consider raising rates in 2022, yesterday, […]

March 22nd, 2023 | Fed Today and Done?

Juggling Dynamite - At the last FOMC announcement on February 1st, the Fed hiked base rates by 25 bps and said it expected to tighten through 2023, with no easing before 2024, at the earliest. That was before retreating bank deposits sparked a liquidity crunch at highly levered financial institutions. Expectations are now that the Fed will hike […]
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