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Danielle Park

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Portfolio Manager and President of Venable Park Investment Counsel (www.venablepark.com) Ms Park is a financial analyst, attorney, finance author and regular guest on North American media. She is also the author of the best-selling myth-busting book "Juggling Dynamite: An insider's wisdom on money management, markets and wealth that lasts," and a popular daily financial blog: www.jugglingdynamite.com

Juggling Dynamite - Good news: Big Wall Street Investors like Blackrock, Blackstone, Invitation Homes, and Progress Residential are no longer buying up the housing market. As the rental supply balloons, rents are starting to fall. The next leg of housing downturns typically see for-sale listings surge and prices fall. Nick Gerli explains well in his latest video segment. […]

September 8th, 2023 | Pause Before The Storm

Juggling Dynamite - As Greg Ip notes in the Wall Street Journal today: “Every recession starts out looking like a soft landing. August’s moderate increase in unemployment was welcome. The risk is that plenty more are in store, which won’t be cause for celebration.“ In reality, recessions are the norm following monetary tightening cycles, and unemployment rises through contractions […]

Juggling Dynamite - I discovered Jeremy Grantham in 2002, and he’s served as a touchstone since. His experience and insight are rare and valuable. The slow-moving influence of rising interest rates will end up torpedoing the economy, dashing Federal Reserve expectations that a recession can be avoided, according to renowned Wall Street curmudgeon Jeremy Grantham. This interview for “Bloomberg Wealth […]

Juggling Dynamite - US mortgage rates (30-year fixed) jumped an extra 50 basis points this week to 7.7%, while Canadian mortgage rates are 6% plus. Higher carrying costs are causing many owners to need to maximize rental income from their properties. Short-term rentals are attractive because they have yielded more per night than long-term leases. However, many cities […]

Juggling Dynamite - As interest rates soared above six percent over the last seventeen months, four of the big five Canadian banks have allowed floating-rate customers to extend and pretend by making the same mortgage payments as when floating rates were sub-2%. This has compounded solvency problems as unpaid interest adds to the debt and extends amortization periods […]

Juggling Dynamite - About seventy percent of Canadian mortgages were taken out over the last few years with a 5-year fixed term and an ultra-low interest rate that averaged 2.79%. In 2020-2021, some 40% were taken at floating rates that averaged 1.65%. Floating and new fixed-term rates are now above 6%. Eighty-five percent of US home mortgages have […]

Juggling Dynamite - Canada’s housing bubble is crystal clear unless you are paid not to see it (wilfully blind) or painfully naive. The average national home price of 754K in July is ten times the average household income of $75k. The historically recognized affordability ratio has been home prices that are 3 to 4 times household income; this […]

Juggling Dynamite - Many cite US and Canadian unemployment levels today near 5o-year lows as grounds for economic optimism. Unemployment is a lagging indicator that commonly inspires misplaced confidence heading into recessions and then pessimism as it rises into subsequent economic expansions. For leading employment indicators, we look to readings on the average manufacturing workweek, average overtime manufacturing […]

August 28th, 2023 | Productivity Challenges

Juggling Dynamite - Weak productivity pressures profits and, ultimately, increases unemployment. Eventually, after recessions, productivity increases, thanks to reviving demand and lower labour costs (after layoffs). So far, we are early in the layoff phase, with jobless claims rising in 48 US states. Similar trends are evident in Canada and many developed economies, not just in America. The […]

Juggling Dynamite - I have been following this issue for some time, and it’s not yet being widely factored into asset allocation decisions. How much of our net worth will we want in buildings that can’t be insured or where premiums go parabolic? How can we reduce and self-insure our risk in a world with hard-to-get or unaffordable […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - The Wave of Unaffordability Just Starting

August 22nd, 2023 | Tougher Times For The Masses

Juggling Dynamite - Today’s home affordability is the lowest on record, thanks to elevated prices and the highest mortgage rates in 23 years (US home affordability index below since 1997 courtesy of Goldman Sachs). Not to mention leaping insurance, utilities, property taxes, maintenance, and interest costs on the many other debt types. These are tough times for the masses. In […]

Juggling Dynamite - As the riskiest asset prices rebounded into July, most strategists and investment advisers proclaimed the all-clear (as usual), and bullish sentiment roared back near levels seen at the cycle top in early 2021 (shown below courtesy of The Daily Shot).   This is typical behaviour: market sentiment moves in lockstep with price. As stocks have […]

Juggling Dynamite - This is a teaser preview of the full interview that has not yet been released. Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of the Boston-based investment firm Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo (GMO), predicts a US recession “running perhaps deep into next year.” Grantham says we have entered a period of “moderately higher inflation.” Grantham speaks in an interview taped […]

August 19th, 2023 | China’s Great Slowdown

Juggling Dynamite - A glut of Chinese homes and goods, with falling domestic consumption, suggests less demand for global commodities and a deflationary impulse through the rest of the world. China’s momentum is fading after decades of supercharged growth. A much anticipated post-pandemic recovery appears to have flopped, with data flashing warning signs across the economy. The government’s […]

Juggling Dynamite - Historical context is critical in assessing where we are in this credit, business and employment cycle. Facts demand sobriety, and the discussion below is lucid. This overall strength in U.S. equities is painting a misleading picture as to where the global economy is heading, especially with the Chinese market indicating signs of a slowdown, David […]

Juggling Dynamite - I am just reading Attia’s latest book, Outlive, and I appreciate the proactive focus on extending health quality rather than just the number of years lived. The good news is that it’s possible to improve our health and fitness as we age. If you’ve been wanting to invest in your health, you probably have so many questions […]

Juggling Dynamite - Chief Strategist of QI Research Danielle DiMartino Booth points out that downward revisions in economic data are revealing the truth about the economy far too late and when few are paying attention. As many hail a new bull market, Danielle sees a number of alarming indicators that are outside the focus of the mainstream media […]

Juggling Dynamite - In the second quarter of 2023, distressed commercial real estate volume grew by $8 billion–the largest quarterly increase since the second quarter of 2020. The WSJ reports that Wall Street firms are raising new funds to acquire office buildings, apartments and other troubled commercial real estate at a fraction of the price investors paid a few […]

Juggling Dynamite - Danielle was a guest with Linda Ward on the CBC Weekend Business Panel. You can view a video of the segment here.  

Juggling Dynamite - Independent measurements and insights (i.e., not coming from investment sales firms) are very rare and valuable. You have to know where to look and also want to see. ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan updates on the business and market cycle in the segment below, starting at 3:50 on the play bar. MacroVoices welcome ECRI @businesscycle co-founder Lakshman […]

Juggling Dynamite - After past housing bubble peaks in Canada and elsewhere, home prices contracted 25%+ nationally and stayed relatively flat in the following decade or so. That allowed incomes to advance on shelter costs and restore affordability over time. A similar pattern is the base case this time, as well. Much needed. Tony Stillo, director of economics […]

Juggling Dynamite - US household debt has surpassed a fresh record of $17.1 trillion. $12 trillion is in mortgages (more than twice the 2006 bubble top), $1.6 trillion in auto loans, and over $1 trillion in credit card debt, all with the highest interest rates in 22 years and rising unemployment. Courtesy of Bloomberg, the chart below shows the […]

August 9th, 2023 | No Time For Delusions

Juggling Dynamite - Bullish sentiment roared back in the first half of 2023 on the blind belief that low unemployment numbers mean that this time is different and the sharpest monetary tightening in 40 years is not triggering a recession. In reality, changes in unemployment lag behind changes in monetary policy by 12 to 24 months, and mainstream […]

Juggling Dynamite - Canadian banks are offering mortgage rates above 6% for 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6-year terms on new purchases (below via Ratehub). Home equity lines of credit are above 7%. These are historically average mortgage rates. The trouble is that after 13 years of unnaturally low rates (2009-2022), people are carrying debt loads far above the long-term […]
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