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Danielle Park

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Portfolio Manager and President of Venable Park Investment Counsel (www.venablepark.com) Ms Park is a financial analyst, attorney, finance author and regular guest on North American media. She is also the author of the best-selling myth-busting book "Juggling Dynamite: An insider's wisdom on money management, markets and wealth that lasts," and a popular daily financial blog: www.jugglingdynamite.com

Juggling Dynamite - US household debt has surpassed a fresh record of $17.1 trillion. $12 trillion is in mortgages (more than twice the 2006 bubble top), $1.6 trillion in auto loans, and over $1 trillion in credit card debt, all with the highest interest rates in 22 years and rising unemployment. Courtesy of Bloomberg, the chart below shows the […]

August 9th, 2023 | No Time For Delusions

Juggling Dynamite - Bullish sentiment roared back in the first half of 2023 on the blind belief that low unemployment numbers mean that this time is different and the sharpest monetary tightening in 40 years is not triggering a recession. In reality, changes in unemployment lag behind changes in monetary policy by 12 to 24 months, and mainstream […]

Juggling Dynamite - Canadian banks are offering mortgage rates above 6% for 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6-year terms on new purchases (below via Ratehub). Home equity lines of credit are above 7%. These are historically average mortgage rates. The trouble is that after 13 years of unnaturally low rates (2009-2022), people are carrying debt loads far above the long-term […]

Juggling Dynamite - Each week I hear from people who bought Canadian homes over the past few years–whether as primary residences, secondary homes or rentals–and now they realize that they will need to sell. Most are facing capital losses in doing so, but the cost of continued ownership is simply unsustainable. Some recognize that location changes they made […]

Juggling Dynamite - When it comes to money, because it’s so quantifiable, you’d expect people to make very rational decisions. But they don’t. Because we’re humans, we’re more driven by our evolutionary wiring and our emotions. We make “predictably irrational” decisions, as today’s guest expert would say. Dan Ariely is the James B. Duke Professor of Psychology and […]

Juggling Dynamite - The year-over-year leap in the Fed Funds Rate (inverted on the lower right in orange) is leading ISM new orders down (green line on the lower right). ISM new orders (lower left, in orange, since 2002) lead corporate revenues (green). The chart below, courtesy of Francois Trahan, suggests the trends in motion. Jubilant corporate bond and […]

Juggling Dynamite - This discussion offers an important overview of current financial conditions and what they suggest from here. Dr. Lacy Hunt says a credit crunch is now at hand that will start freezing up the gears of the US economy. Here is a direct video link. Hoisington’s Q2 2023 Quarterly Review and Outlook is available at this link.

Juggling Dynamite - For those who pay attention to risk/reward dynamics, the prospective compensation for equity risk over Treasury bonds is today the lowest since the market peak in 2007-08 (S&P 500 forward earnings yield minus the ten-year Treasury yield). David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, talks about the lasting effects of Covid-19 stimulus checks on […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Time for Canada to Ease Up on Mass Immigration

Juggling Dynamite - Canada’s TSX index has rebounded 6%, year-to-date, while its corporate earnings have contracted. As of today, the S&P/TSX Composite is expected to report a Q2 (year-over-year) earnings decline of -20.4%, compared to the estimated (year-over-year) earnings decline of -17.4% on June 30 and the estimated (year-over-year) earnings decline of -12.5% on March 31. See Canada Earnings […]

Juggling Dynamite - A new report from Moody’s highlights the clear and present risks posed by “less regulated and transparent parts of the global financial system.” In particular, financial institutions carrying “more leverage, less liquidity and weak risk management will find it harder to navigate the cycle.” But wasn’t this time supposed to be different? See Shadow Banking Stress Lurks, Moody’s warns: Tighter […]

Juggling Dynamite - Near-zero interest rates and trillions of asset buying by central banks (QE) enabled twelve years of increasingly deranged financial behaviour between 2011 and 2023. In the process, gambling became an international preoccupation, and investable assets were traded to uneconomically high valuations. A global standout, at the market peak in 2022, the S&P 500 index (shown […]

Juggling Dynamite - The challenge is to explain complex systems in simple enough terms that people can comprehend. I attempt to do this every day in finance. But people can be hard to help. We have to want to learn and remember why capital preservation is our dominant goal. Financial enlightenment is made harder because most “experts” in […]

Juggling Dynamite - Like today, soft-landing hopes were all the rage in the summer of 2007 too. The US Fed tightened its overnight rate from 1% in May 2004 to 5.25% by June 2006 and then paused there for 15 months. As the economy slowed and credit stress mounted, the Fed administered a first cut (50bps) in September 2007, and […]

Juggling Dynamite - Nick Gerli, Reventure Consulting Founder and CEO, joins ‘Last Call’ to explain his recent viral tweet claiming AirBnB is seeing declining revenue in several major markets. Here is a direct video link. Also, see Nick’s update on developments in the commercial property sector. Commercial real estate values have already dropped 11% in the last year, with […]

Juggling Dynamite - Danielle was a guest on the CBC Weekend Business Panel. Here is a direct video link.

Juggling Dynamite - As we enter the second half of 2023, the economy continues chugging along. GDP growth for Q2 is currently estimated at 2.3%, and inflation continues dropping, with the latest June headline CPI just in at 3.0%. Have those warning of recession been wrong? Or will the lag effect result in a bumpier ride for the […]

Juggling Dynamite - Home prices in the US peaked a year ago in June. Since then, transactions have noticeably cooled as mortgage rates have skyrocketed. And while prices have declined in a number of markets nationwide, the correction so far has been quite mild. Are the housing bears wrong? Or are things going to get notably worse from […]

Juggling Dynamite - The June US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at a 3% annualized rate, down from the pandemic-inflamed peak of 9.1% a year ago. FOMC chair Powell has said that ‘super-core’ services ex-shelter (which excludes food, energy, rent and used car prices) is his preferred inflation gauge, and (as shown below) it came in at […]

Juggling Dynamite - Unlike government bonds that typically rise while stock prices fathom bear market lows, higher-risk corporate bonds tend to fall with risk appetite and equity prices. That trend has held over the past 15 months as most corporate securities have lost value. As US junk bond prices have tumbled, their yields have risen to around 8.75% […]

Juggling Dynamite - The Visual Capitalist chart below shows the pace (in months) and percentage points of Fed hiking cycles since 1988 and confirms that the 2022-23 cycle (in yellow) has, by far, been the sharpest in at least 35 years. In the process, interest-sensitive assets–commodities, bonds, equities and real estate–have all sold off. In the last week, […]

Juggling Dynamite - Fed minutes on Wednesday telegraphed that voting members plan another 25 bps rate hike this month and 25 more by November. Market implied rates are shown below in blue versus expectations last week (pre-minutes) in orange. While rate cuts are expected to follow from December 2023 through September 2024, the magnitude of easing anticipated is […]

July 6th, 2023 | Insolvency Bull Market

Juggling Dynamite - Insolvency trustees are the financial undertakers. They endured a bear market when easy credit enabled extend and pretend habits for the masses. Now the undertakers are entering a boom time as their phones “ring off the hook.” Hoyes, Michalos published Canadian stats through the end of May and included this chart. Other trustee firms are also feeling […]

Juggling Dynamite - The seemingly endless party of growth in real estate supported by ever-cheaper finance has reached an end, with a protracted hangover now ahead. This has broad implications for the many sectors that feed off real estate and is why realty-led recessions have historically been the harshest. See, Industries that rely on thriving downtowns suffer, and Office turmoil […]

Juggling Dynamite - Some lucid assessments in this segment. When the road ahead is uncertain, there’s no wiser choice than to listen to those with experience – who have seen enough market cycles to judge what’s most likely to happen next. Today we’re fortunate to welcome financial advisor Ted Oakley, managing partner & founder of Oxbow Advisors. Ted […]
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