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Danielle Park
Portfolio Manager and President of Venable Park Investment Counsel (www.venablepark.com) Ms Park is a financial analyst, attorney, finance author and regular guest on North American media. She is also the author of the best-selling myth-busting book "Juggling Dynamite: An insider's wisdom on money management, markets and wealth that lasts," and a popular daily financial blog: www.jugglingdynamite.com
October 16th, 2023 | Small Caps Leading Lower
Juggling Dynamite - The economically-sensitive Russell 2000 stock index (RUT) has given back all of its early 2023 rebound and is now negative year to date, -29% from its cycle peak in October 2021 and just 1% higher than where it was in August 2018. The more concentrated US small-cap 600 index (SML in green below since April […]
October 13th, 2023 | Resisting Financial Sentinels
Juggling Dynamite - Investment banks are having a rough year. Sharply higher interest rates are taking a toll. Falling asset prices since 2021 have reduced fees tied to assets under management just as bad debts are rising. Underwriting fees are not helping: year-to-date investment banks have sold 22% fewer Initial public offerings (IPOs) to the public than in 2022, and […]
October 12th, 2023 | Hot Homeowner Accessory: Two Homes in One
Juggling Dynamite - More and more people are starting to understand that homes can be very expensive consumption items and ways to make them more efficient/lower per capita living costs are savvy. Secondary dwellings in primary residences are one way to do this. Whether to share shelter costs with friends, extended family, or caregivers or to generate rental […]
October 11th, 2023 | Buying Power Has Halved, Do The Math
Juggling Dynamite - Home listings and price reductions are popping up like measles. You can see this by signing into Zillow (or many other sites). Meanwhile, offers are increasingly scarce, and a quick look at any mortgage calculator shows why. When Canadian variable rate mortgages were available at 1.65% from 2020 to early 2022, one was enabled to buy a $750,000 property […]
October 10th, 2023 | Housing-Led Downturn To Rival 2008
Juggling Dynamite - A decade of levered fiscal and monetary incentives has enabled yet another epic capital misallocation cycle. Now, we are in the takeback period once more. Heads up. Housing-led economic downturns have historically been the most severe, and the price of homes (US in purple below since 1996) enters this downcycle more elevated relative to income […]
October 9th, 2023 | Cooling Wage Growth and Loss of Full Time Jobs Confirm Weakening Economy
Juggling Dynamite - Cooling Wage Growth Easing Inflation Worries — DiMartino Booth Joins Charles Payne of FBN. Here is a direct video link.
October 6th, 2023 | Bond Market Tightens Noose on Highly Indebted Economy
Juggling Dynamite - Today, we have news that the Canadian and US economies are estimated to have created more jobs in September than forecast. Still, hourly earnings moved down, and unemployment rates in both countries have moved above cycle lows. It is helpful to remember that unemployment is a lagging indicator, with the bulk of upward moves happening […]
October 4th, 2023 | Yield Curve Steepening Signals More Pain for Stocks, Reeal Estate and Economy
Juggling Dynamite - Bond analyst Alf Pecatiello warns that over the last 3 months, US bond markets have been in an aggressive and prolonged period of bear steepening of the yield curve. History shows if left unchecked, this steepening is likely to cause serious damage to equity markets and the economy. Here is a direct video link. As shown […]
October 3rd, 2023 | Harsh New Reality for Homeowners as Listings Rise and Buyer-Pool Shrinks
Juggling Dynamite - In its 2023 Financial System Review, The Bank of Canada notes growing concern about the ability of households to service their debt, with mortgage holders facing payment increases of up to 40%. Compounding the issue is the fact house prices are falling and reducing the amount of equity owners have: Higher interest rates have also contributed to […]
October 2nd, 2023 | Danielle on CBC Weekend Business Panel
Juggling Dynamite - Danielle was a guest with Almer Kim and Dennis Mitchell on CBC’s Weekend Business Panel. You can view a video clip of the segment here.
October 2nd, 2023 | Oh Canada
Juggling Dynamite - When bank economists get bearish, you know that data looks pretty dour. Kudos to Robert for candour in this interview. Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, joins BNN Bloomberg with his perspective on Canada’s July GDP data, which Kavcic says was flat. He says all told, assuming growth remains modest in September as […]
October 1st, 2023 | Capitalizing on Recessions and Financial Cycles
Juggling Dynamite - Worthwhile big-picture discussion… Experience financial expert Gary Shilling’s insights like never before in this engrossing video titled “Gary Shilling On A Violent Stock Collapse Dead Ahead.” Shilling, known for his astute market predictions, discusses the impending dangers of a violent stock market collapse, offering invaluable advice for both seasoned and aspiring investors. Here is a direct […]
September 30th, 2023 | China’s Great Slowdown and Real Estate Crisis
Juggling Dynamite - Secular mean reversion in the world’s second-largest economy and largest consumer of global commodities has far-reaching implications for all of us. Kyle Bass, Hayman Capital Management founder and CIO, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the state of U.S.-China relations amid rising tensions, China’s economic woes and real estate crisis, and more. Here is a direct video […]
September 29th, 2023 | Canadian Recession “Earlier and Harder”
Juggling Dynamite - Unfortunately, a decade of loose money and misallocated capital has set Canada up for a period of hard return. David Rosenberg, President and Chief Economist & Strategist of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., talks with Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn about how Canada will get a recession ‘earlier and harder’. Here is a direct video link. […]
September 28th, 2023 | China’s Housing Bust Spreads
Juggling Dynamite - Shares in the Chinese property firm Evergrande have fallen as problems in the country’s struggling housing market deepen – affecting the wider economy. Its mainland unit Hengda Real Estate has defaulted on 4bn yuan (£449m; $547m) of debt, it revealed on Monday. The BBC’s Analysis Editor Ros Atkins examines the background to the current crisis. […]
September 27th, 2023 | Financial Headwinds Intensify as Cash Dwindles and Debt Costs Leap
Juggling Dynamite - Trillions in emergency government handouts have been spent. Eighty percent of Americans now have less cash than when the Pandemic began. Only the wealthiest 20% of Americans still have some excess Pandemic savings, and that is expected to be fully consumed by the end of this month. All income groups have seen their balances decline in […]
September 26th, 2023 | Jeremy Grantham “Bubble Historian”
Juggling Dynamite - The below podcast with Grantham is nearly two hours long and broad in scope. Worth the time, IMHO. For those with less patience, you can read some key takeaways in 10 quotes from the interview. Also, this 2-minute TikTok reel offers a taste. @downtownjbrown Is This a Real Estate Bubble? @The Compound THe Compound and Friends […]
September 25th, 2023 | McGill Housing Study: “Staggering Impact of Short Term Rentals”
Juggling Dynamite - Greater restrictions around short-term rental properties seems inevitable. A McGill University professor has found some eyebrow-raising numbers regarding short-term rentals in B.C. …“The report underscores the need for the Province of B.C. to implement a province-wide short-term rental registry and platform accountability measures to save tenants billions in rent and address housing supply, attainability, and […]
September 23rd, 2023 | Unaffordable Homes and Cars
Juggling Dynamite - A new report from RATESDOTCA found that Canadians who took a five-year insured $500,000 variable-rate mortgage in the low-interest days of 2021 would be paying $23,579 more in cumulative interests by September 2023 compared to a fixed-rate mortgage option. See Variable rate mortgage holders on the hook for thousands in interest: The figure represents 63 per cent in […]
September 22nd, 2023 | Stocks Tank on Fed’s ‘Hawkish’ Pause
Juggling Dynamite - Excellent overview of key data in this segment. Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her views on the September meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). Filmed on September 20, shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference. Here is a direct video link.
September 21st, 2023 | Falling Incomes and Forced Home Sales
Juggling Dynamite - Lucid insights on macro conditions and the housing cycle in this segment. Homeowners in America have run out of money in 2023, which could spark a wave of panic selling that will cause inventory to surge. Here is a direct video link.
September 20th, 2023 | What This $100 Billion Ghost City Says About China’s Realty Crisis
Juggling Dynamite - Country Garden, once seen as one of China’s most stable property developers, is now struggling financially, leaving the future of unfinished megadevelopments like Malaysia’s Forest City in doubt. Here’s how overbuilding, and a streak of bad luck, have left China’s real-estate developers in the red. Here is a direct video link. This entry was posted
September 20th, 2023 | Fed Pause Doesn’t Preclude Future Hikes
HoweStreet.com Radio - Real Estate problems a global phenomena
September 19th, 2023 | BOC: Elevated Investor Ownership Magnifies Real Estate Downside
Juggling Dynamite - In a September 8th update entitled, Indicators of Financial Vulnerabilities, the Bank of Canada (BOC) notes that in Q1 2023, so-called investors owned 30 percent of mortgaged homes in Canada, up from 20 percent before the pandemic. See, Investors took a bigger chunk of the housing market during the pandemic, data shows. In the first quarter […]
September 18th, 2023 | Mind The Credit Cycle
Juggling Dynamite - Bank lending is contracting across world economies. The percentage of US banks tightening their credit to large and medium firms (below since 1990 via Tier 1 Alpha) now above 40%–was only seen during the 2020 pandemic, the 2008 financial crisis, the 2001 Dotcom bust, and the 1990-91 recession. As higher interest rates freeze existing home […]