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December 6, 2024 | Volkswagen Protests – The Contagion Begins

Martin Armstrong

Martin Arthur Armstrong is current chairman and founder of Armstrong Economics. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.

Volkswagen Symbol

Tens of thousands of Volkswagen employees have halted production to protest proposed pay cuts. The German automaker has stated it will need to close three manufacturing plants due to rising labor expenses, material shortages, and, most importantly – the climate change agenda that has demonized fossil fuels.

Over 120,000 workers now face a 10% pay cut if they can manage to keep their jobs. The IG Metall union has warned that protests will be fierce. Volkswagen remains Germany’s top-selling car brand, composing 19% of the market share. Yet profit margins have dropped from a forecast of 7% to 5.6% for 2024 after the company’s cash flow turned negative in the first half of the year. The company states it needs to save 10 billion euros by 2026 in addition to finding a way to cut another 4 billion euros. Operating profits have fallen by 11.4% and they simply cannot continue producing these EVs at the same pace they were producing dreaded fuel-powered cars because the demand is not there.

Now many blame China for providing state subsidies for EVs that are far cheaper than the vehicles produced in Germany. This is why places like the US have placed a 100% tariff on those vehicles so that there is no demand. However, there is simply low demand for electric vehicles everywhere. You cannot force people to buy EVs even if you destroy the energy sector and make prices skyrocket 300% as they did by killing Nordstream. Pushing manufacturers to switch to meet these arbitrary emission targets is killing the entire auto sector which is about 17% of Germany’s entire GDP.

Germany believes it can reduce carbon emissions by 65% by 2030, followed by an 88% reduction into 2040 before meeting gas net neutrality in 2045. They claim that Germany is five years behind on its adoption of electric vehicles as it is far from meeting its goal of 15 million EVs by 2030. The average EV price in euro shot up 7.5% in the past year to €56,669. Infrastructure and charging stations remain inadequate to meet these goals.

Germany relies heavily on automotives, and Europe relies heavily on Germany as its top economy. Now, due to climate initiatives, Volkswagen is closing plants for the first time in its 87-year history. Pay close attention to Germany’s automotive sector, as it could easily cause a ripple effect throughout the entire European economy.

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December 6th, 2024

Posted In: Armstrong Economics

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