Mexico’s new President Claudia Sheinbaum is asking Trump to use a bit more common sense when threatening to implement tariffs before a tit-for-tat game ensues. “One tariff would be followed by another in response, and so on until we put at risk common businesses,” Sheinbaum said. It would come as no surprise if the incoming Trump Administration faces diplomatic difficulties with Sheinbaum.

Mexican cartels have openly infiltrated government. The president has refused to take responsibility for the drugs coming into the US from Mexico, and instead, has blamed the US for arming the cartels through the illegal arms trade. Sheinbaum called America’s drug crisis “a problem of public health and consumption in your country’s society.”

Although she denied that caravans of migrants are heading to the US from Mexico, countless sources have spotted these caravans en route to America. Mainly poorer migrants ban together to seek safety in numbers, not just from US border patrol, but from Mexican cartels who will seek a fee or worse for crossing their territory.

Trump began threatening Mexico with tariffs over illegal immigration in 2019. At first, he threatened a 5% levy but that gone up to 25%. Former Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador began his term with hostile sentiments toward Trump, however, he the USMCA was perhaps a turning point in there relationship when both parties realized that FREE TRADE could benefit both countries. AMLO later agreed to send the National Guard to assist in curbing migration.

Manufacturing has shifted to Mexico in a major way since Trump’s first term. The automotive industry, as one example, has benefitted from the USMCA deal and shifted production to Mexico where labor is cheaper. Mexico dethroned China to become the top exporter of goods to the US in 2023, exporting $475.6 billion to the US in 2023, a 5% YoY uptick. This is the first time in two decades that Mexico’s exports to the US surpassed China’s, as Chinese exports fell 20% for the year. Maintaining a diplomatic approach to issues such as illegal migration would benefit both nations as tariffs are never the answer.