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October 18, 2024 | The U.S. Election is Too Close To Call
Hilliard MacBeth
The U.S. election on November 5 2024 is touted as a major event, as the policy and style differences between the two candidates are unusually large.
Given how close the polls are — within the margin of error — there is a high degree of uncertainty and trepidation over this vote.
Who will win?
The Democratic Party candidate, Kamala Harris, leads recent polls by 3 percent nationwide. But this does not mean she will win as the electoral college controls the outcome and the weighting of electoral college votes does not track the number of voters in a state. For example, North Dakota has a population of less than one million people and gets 3 electoral votes. California, with more than 39 million people, gets “only” 54 electoral votes. But California’s population is more than 40 times larger. So, because of the unbalanced electoral college vote allocation, North Dakota and other sparsely populated states can have a larger impact than warranted by number of voters.
Partly because of this electoral college imbalance, conventional wisdom says that Dems must lead by 3 points or more in polls to win the presidential election.
In 2020 Joe Biden won 306 electoral college votes and Donald Trump received 232. Biden won 51.3 percent of the popular vote while Trump received 46.9 percent. Before the vote Biden held a 5-point lead (50-45 percent) in opinion polls.
In 2016 Trump won the electoral college with 304 votes. Hilary Clinton won the popular vote with 48.2 percent while Trump received 46.1 percent. Even with the larger number of votes she received only 227 electoral votes.
The electoral college allows a small number of states to decide the election.
There are seven key battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Of those states Harris leads opinion polls in four and Trump in three, all by very small margins.
In 2016 Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the so-called Rust Belt which controls a combined 46 electoral votes. In 2020 Biden won those three as well as Georgia, Nevada and Arizona while Trump won one — North Carolina.
The race will come down to voter turnout in the decisive battleground states which requires buying advertising just before election day. Massive sums will be spent by the candidates and Harris has the edge as she has raised more than $600 million since July.
Turnout has been on a rising trend. In Obama’s first election in 2008, 61.6 percent of eligible voters participated. In 2016 turnout dropped to 58.6 percent, but that is normal for a President seeking a second term. In 2016, when Trump beat Clinton, turnout was only 60.1 percent. But a surge in turnout in 2020 pushed Biden to victory with 66.6 percent voting. This was the highest turnout on record.
It’s likely that a large turnout favors Harris, while Trump has the edge if turnout is muted. The candidate who can inspire the most voter enthusiasm has the best chance for victory.
Hilliard MacBeth
The opinions expressed in this report are the opinions of the author and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Richardson Wealth or its affiliates. Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute the author’s judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. We do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of this material, and it should not be relied upon as such. Before acting on any recommendation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The comments contained herein are general in nature and are not intended to be, nor should be construed to be, legal or tax advice to any particular individual. Accordingly, individuals should consult their own legal or tax advisors for advice with respect to the tax consequences to them, having regard to their own particular circumstances.. Richardson Wealth is a member of Canadian Investor Protection Fund. Richardson Wealth is a trademark by its respective owners used under license by Richardson Wealth.
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Hilliard MacBeth October 18th, 2024
Posted In: Hilliard's Weekend Notebook