October 13, 2024 | The Drone Wars

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, you previously said the US would find it difficult to actually defend Taiwan. I would greatly appreciate if you could elaborate on that scenario.
HJ

ANSWER: If you look at all of the fighter jets that the US could deploy from the F15, F16, F22, and F35s, they have a serious drawback when we look at Taiwan. They generally have a range of 500 to 600 miles with a meaningful payload of weapons. The ONLY US air base that could be used to defend Taiwan is Kadena in Japan’s Okinawa prefecture. That is 450 miles from Taiwan. If China were to invade, an all out war one would expect that the Chinese would rain down missiles on Kadena most likely rendering that base in operable. If the fighters took off, they may not have a base to return to in a serious confrontation.

Yes, the USAF could deploy aerial tankers to extend a fighter’s range by hundreds of miles. However, such tankers are slow and very vulnerable under such conditions. This is why the requirements for the Next Generation stealth fighter has been to extend its range. The USAF at least temporarily paused the this project raising questions about the ability to defend Taiwan. They claimed it was the cost was too high. The Ukraine War has highlighted the rising importance of using unmanned drones perhaps using AI-assisted rather than fighter jets.

The traditional tactics from WWII and the Korean War are giving way to drone technology. These drones could extend the flight path to even 900 miles. Instead of billions of dollars for jets, they can use drones costing tens of millions, still way over prices to keep the Military Industrial Complex from going on welfare. Drones could then operate from small island airstrips in The Philippines. Now you see why the Philippines has been a concern for China.

What you are more likely to see is the new stealth generation fighters may be support craft for the drones as the support ships for aircraft carriers. They could in theory control the drones as sort of a mother-ship. All of this is being driven by the expectation that war is coming with China.

Martin Armstrong October 13th, 2024

Posted In: Armstrong Economics

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