August 8, 2024 | Be Prepared for Another Stock Market Shock

Lack of consumer demand keeping crude prices down

August 8, 2024 | Lower Interest Rates Won’t Instantly Solve Slow Economy

Did good intentions cause our financial problems?

August 8, 2024 | Could Market Rally Hit New Highs?

Interest rate cuts will be too late to prevent recession.  Special Offer!

August 7, 2024 | Airbnb Houses Are About to Flood the Market

New players will make this housing bust one for the record books. The current housing bubble features three new players, all of whom are about to switch from “buy/hold” to “panic sell.” They are: Boomers forced by declining health and/or shrinking stock portfolios to sell their McMansions. Wall Street private equity “landlords” who gorged on […]

August 7, 2024 | Emergency Rate Cuts Never Work

  COMMENT: Marty, it is always obvious why you were named Economist of the Decade, Hedge Fund Manager of the Year, and FX Analyst of the Year for the Swiss Peg break. As you said on the private blog; “Let’s see but it appears that we could have a bear trap forming with a plunge […]

August 7, 2024 | Luxury Condo Sells for 21 Percent Loss

  According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), the average sale price for all property types in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) dropped to $1.106 million in July. On a month-over-month basis, the price fell by 4.7% from June. On the supply side, new listings rose 18.5%, and the sales-to-new listings ratio was […]

August 7, 2024 | Is Argentina’s Hyperinflation The Fate For Every Country?

VIX, Gold, US Dollar, Bitcoin, Debt

August 6, 2024 | Americans Prepared for Lasting Inflation

Americans are preparing for a prolonged inflationary period, based on new data from the New York Fed. The New York Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations found that Americans are still pessimistic about inflation waning, with no one now believing it is transitory. The median expectation is that inflation will remain at the 3% level […]

August 6, 2024 | Household Debt, Delinquencies, Collections, and Bankruptcies: Our Drunken Sailors and their Debts in Q2

otal household debt outstanding in Q2 ticked up by $109 billion, or by 0.6%, from Q1 – the smallest percentage increase since Q2 2023, and the second smallest increase since Q1 2021 – to $17.8 trillion, according to the Household Debt and Credit Report from the New York Fed today. Year-over-year, total household debt grew […]

August 6, 2024 | Canada’s Financial Hell Paved with Good Intentions

As interest rates fell from 1980 to 2020, the average Canadian home price increased 746% from $67k to $566k, while the median household income rose about half that rate (400%) from $21,252 in 1980 to $84,000 by 2020 (table courtesy of Nerd Wallet). The average Canadian home price rose from about 3x the median household income […]

August 5, 2024 | Americans Prepared for Lasting Inflation

Americans are preparing for a prolonged inflationary period, based on new data from the New York Fed. The New York Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations found that Americans are still pessimistic about inflation waning, with no one now believing it is transitory. The median expectation is that inflation will remain at the 3% level in […]

August 4, 2024 | The Hunger Games: The Fed Version

I am just a poor boy Though my story’s seldom told I have squandered my resistance For a pocket full of mumbles Such are promises All lies and jests Still, a man hears what he wants to hear And disregards the rest… -Paul Simon, The Boxer, 1969 Let the wise hear and increase in learning, […]

August 4, 2024 | Everybody Knows

Everybody knows that the dice are loaded Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed Everybody knows the war is over Everybody knows the good guys lost Leonard Cohen – Everybody Knows Having heard this Leonard Cohen classic on the radio a few days ago, the lyrics have been rattling around in my head as a perfect […]

August 4, 2024 | Will The US Go Into Civil War 2025-2026? Will 2024 Be the Last Election? What Does AI say?

  Our computer model warns that we are headed into tremendous civil unrest because those behind the curtain are NOT about to let Trump thwart their agenda of World War III. I warned that they would attempt to assassinate Trump, for it was on the 13-year Assassination Cycle. The last non-Deep State assassination attempt was […]

August 4, 2024 | Time for a Holiday…

[I’m taking a summer break, so this will be my last commentary until after Labor Day. It will be the usual busman’s holiday, however, and actionable ‘touts’ for popular symbols will be updated ‘round-the-clock as always. Some recommendations will be accessible to non-paying subscribers, so be sure to check the home page regularly, especially if stocks go […]

August 3, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for August 3, 2024

With the NAZ down ~12% since the July 11 record highs, do we bounce or keep falling? The NAZ closed lower for four consecutive weeks and closed this week at 18500 (which may be an essential support level), the lowest close since May 14. Perspective: At the July 11 highs, the NAZ was up ~20X from […]

August 3, 2024 | This Week in Money

• Ross Clark:  Stock Market Downturn. Special Offer! 25% Off New Annual Subscriptions.
• Tim Wood: (13:56) Dow Theory Alarm Bells, Major Correction?
• Martin Straith: (20:38) Stock Market, Nvidia.
• Robert Campbell: (55:10) US Real Estate, Housing Bubble.

August 3, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday August 3rd 2024

The Bottom Line World equity markets recorded significant technical weakness last week. Weakness on Friday was extended by a disappointing U.S. July Employment report released at 8:30 AM EDT. Breakdowns below intermediate support levels were recorded by North American, European and Far East equity indices and their related Exchange Traded Funds. Best chart to demonstrate […]

August 2, 2024 | War & Freedom of Speech – Then the Default

    I had the privilege of knowing Normal Rockwell back in the 1970s. His most famous war poster, created to raise money for World War II, asserted that if we lost, we would lose our freedom of speech. It is good that Norman is no longer with us. If he were alive today, he […]

August 2, 2024 | Japan Enters Its Death Spiral

Japan has been a big topic in this newsletter because it illustrates the no-win situation in which wildly overindebted countries eventually find themselves. Here are two articles that illustrate the point: How a Country Goes Bankrupt, In 10 Steps Japan Is In That Box Now For The Death Spiral   Confronted with both a plunging […]

August 2, 2024 | Recession in the U.S. is Coming Soon

The Federal Reserve delayed cutting rates this week while ignoring signs of a pending recession. The U.S. economy is slowing rapidly and there is a multitude of clues that the U.S. will enter recession before the end of this year. The Federal Reserve has yet to cut rates, but that first cut is almost certainly […]

August 2, 2024 | American’s #1 Financial Problem in One Chart

  In April 2024, a record 41% of those surveyed claimed that the high cost of living/inflation was their #1 financial issue – up from the previous record highs of 35% in 2023 and 32% in 2022. At 14%, the high cost of owning or renting a home was the 2nd largest financial issue. Negative […]

August 2, 2024 | Stocks Paying the Price for Being Hugely Over Bought

The case for Junior Gold miners and quality corporate bonds

August 1, 2024 | Digital Ruble 2025

  Russia has announced that it will implement a digital ruble by next July. Moscow will begin using cryptocurrency for some foreign transactions to bypass sanctions and SWIFT. As of November 2024, Russia will permit crypto mining, so long as it is carried out under the watchful eye of the government. The Bank of Russia […]