In this episode, Dr. Hunt explains that non-farm payrolls overshot by five standard errors, making it the worst miss since a 9 standard one for 2009, during the GFC recession, and marking another bureaucratic failure. According to Dr. Hunt, the reported overshoot of 818,000 was based on an internal seasonally adjusted series, but based on the nonseasonal adjusted data, the overshoot was actually 915,000. Dr. Hunt explains that the non-farm job miss means that productivity will be revised up while unit labor costs will be revised down. Personal income and Gross Domestic Income will be revised downward, and the personal saving rate will be reduced from its already very depressed level of 3.5%. Here is a direct video link.
August 29, 2024 | Hunt: Economic Review and Outlook August 2024
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Portfolio Manager and President of Venable Park Investment Counsel (www.venablepark.com) Ms Park is a financial analyst, attorney, finance author and regular guest on North American media. She is also the author of the best-selling myth-busting book "Juggling Dynamite: An insider's wisdom on money management, markets and wealth that lasts," and a popular daily financial blog: www.jugglingdynamite.com
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Danielle Park August 29th, 2024
Posted In: Juggling Dynamite