August 5, 2024 | Americans Prepared for Lasting Inflation

Americans are preparing for a prolonged inflationary period, based on new data from the New York Fed. The New York Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations found that Americans are still pessimistic about inflation waning, with no one now believing it is transitory. The median expectation is that inflation will remain at the 3% level in 2025.

The public does not anticipate inflation tapering off in a meaningful way in the years to come. The Federal Reserve is still honing in on that 2% target but the people have lost confidence in its ability to do so. Most Americans see inflation sitting at 2.9% in three years from now, up from the 2.4% estimate in January 2024. Even in five year’s time, the average consumer believes inflation will be above target at 2.6%.

The central bank believes they can meet that 2% target. Policymakers believe inflation will fall to 2.1% by 2025 before finally reaching 2% in 2026. Amid the sell off this week, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee came out and said that the central bank will simply “fix it” if the economy continues to deteriorate.

“The Fed’s job is very straightforward, maximize employment, stabilize prices and maintain financial stability. That’s what we’re going to do,” Goolsbee told CNBC. “We’re forward-looking about it. So if the conditions collectively start coming in like that on the through line, there’s deterioration on any of those parts, we’re going to fix it.”

Unfortunately, there is not much that the central bank can do to offset government’s suicidal fiscal policy. Remember, inflation was only 1.4% when Joe Biden took office – far beneath the Fed’s target. Inflation has risen as a direct result of fiscal policies under Bidenomics.

The Fed was unable to prevent policies that ended America’s energy independence. They were unable to stop the supply chain issues exacerbated by the pandemic. They cannot alter the weak jobs reports that are propped up by multiplying the public sector, which only detracts from overall GDP. The Federal Reserve cannot maintain diplomatic relations with America’s trade partners or prevent the likes of Japan and China from selling off US government debt. The millions of immigrants now subsidized by the taxpayers cannot be curtailed by Jerome Powell or the FOMC. Worst of all, war is the most powerful driver of inflation. The Federal Reserve can do absolutely nothing to prevent America from steering NATO into three potential battles. Our Treasury Secretary says we can afford numerous wars. The $35 trillion in government debt rises every day and those in the central bank simply KNOW that the government has no intention on paying it off – how could they?

Americans are rightfully pessimistic about the future of the economy. All the talking heads insist that the economy is thriving under Bidenomics, but we the people are living in a different reality. This is what happens when people lose trust in the government entirely.

Martin Armstrong August 5th, 2024

Posted In: Armstrong Economics

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