July 12, 2024 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, June: A Rate Cut, and? Overall Prices Don’t Move, -14% from Peak, -3.4% YoY. Sales -9.4% YoY

The Bank of Canada cut its rates at the beginning of June, and not much happened in the Canadian housing market. Home sales rose by 3.7% in June from the beaten-down levels in May, seasonally adjusted. But year-over-year, home sales were down 9.4%, a sharper year-over-year decline than in May (-5.9%). New listings rose by 1.5% in June from May, the fifth month of increases over the past six months. Inventory listed for sale was up by 26% year-over-year. Supply ticked down to 4.2 months in June – same as in April, but a tad lower than in May – and up from 3.2 months in June last year.

Home prices edged up 0.1% in June from May, seasonally adjusted, but essentially have been flat all year, with just minuscule up-and-down squiggles like this, after having declined in the second half of 2023, according to the Composite MLS Home Price Index by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) today. Single-family prices ticked up, and condo prices fell further.

From the peak in February 2022, the index has dropped 14%, and is back where it had first been in September 2021. Year-over-year, the Composite MLS Home Price Index fell 3.4%, the third year-over-year decline in a row, with prices rising to all-time highs in some markets and falling further in others.

Home Prices in the most splendid Housing-Bubble Markets.

Greater Toronto Area, single-family MLS Home Price Benchmark Index (all prices in Canadian dollars):

• Month-to-month: +0.3% to $1,318,600; below October 2021
• From peak in February 2022: -15%
• Year-over-year: -4.0%, second month of year-over-year declines in a row (-2.6% in May).

Greater Toronto Area, condo benchmark price:

• Month-to-month: +0.2% to $671,900 where it had been in November 2021
• From peak in February 2022: -12.4%
• Year-over-year: -4.8%

Hamilton-Burlington metro single family benchmark price (in the “Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area”):

• Month-to-month: -0.2% to $908,900, where it had been in August 2021
• From peak in February 2022: -19.4%
• Year-over-year: -2.6%, third month in a row of declines.

Greater Vancouver single-family benchmark price:

• Month-to-month: +0.2% to $2,017,100, where it had been in January 2022, roughly flat since September.
• From peak in April 2022: -2.5% or -$42,200
• Year-over-year: +3.4%, smallest gain since August 2023.

Greater Vancouver condo benchmark price:

• Month-to-month: unchanged, at $762,500, a hair above May 2022.
• Year-over-year: +0.9%, smallest gain since June 2023.

Victoria, single-family benchmark price:

• Month-to-month: -0.4%, to $1,130,700, below November 2021
• From peak in April 2022: -10.6%
• Year-over-year: -1.5% first year-over-year decline since August 2023.

Ottawa, single family benchmark price:

• Month-to-month: +0.3% to $717,800, below October 2021
• From peak in March 2022: -10.3%
• Year-over-year: -0.3%, first year-over-year decline since July 2023.

Calgary, single family benchmark price:

• Month-to-month: +0.5% to new high of $678,300
• Year-over-year: +11.3%. As big as this jump seems, it was the smallest since October 2023.

Montreal, single family benchmark price:

• Month-to-month: 1.4%, to $623,200, just a hair above February 2022.
• From peak in May 2022: -1.8%
• Year-over-year: +4.6%.

Halifax-Dartmouth, single family benchmark price:

• Month-to-month: +2.9% to $554,200
• From peak in February 2022: -0.8%
• Year-over-year: +3.5%.

Edmonton, single-family benchmark price:

• Month-to-month: +1.3% to $450,700
• From peak in April 2022: -0.3%
• Year-over-year: +8.9%
• In the 17 years since the peak of the prior bubble in June 2007, the index is up 15%.

Edmonton, condo benchmark price: What an epic condo bubble looks like afterwards. Despite the surge in recent years, the index is down 19% from the peak in June 2007.

• Month-to-month: +1.3% to $194,300, first seen in December 2006.
• From peak in June 2007: -19%
• Year-over-year: +11.5%

Quebec City Area, single-family benchmark price:

• Month-to-month: +2.0% to $410,000, a new high
• Year-over-year: +8.0%

Winnipeg, single-family benchmark price:

• Month-to-month: +1.7% to $374,100
• From peak in March 2022: -1.6%
• Year-over-year: +4.6%

Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and wa

Wolf Richter July 12th, 2024

Posted In: Wolf Street

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