May 17, 2024 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: Spring Rally Fizzles, Prices -14% from Peak in Feb 2022, Below Sep 2021

Home prices in Canada were unchanged for the second month in a row in April from March, after a series of declines, seasonally adjusted, according to the Composite MLS Home Price Index from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) on Wednesday, as prices of single-family houses inched up 0.1% for the month, while condo prices dipped 0.4%.

Year-over-year, the index declined by 0.9% seasonally adjusted, the first year-over-year decline since July, and by 1.8% not seasonally adjusted. From the peak in February 2022, the index has fallen by 14% and is back where it had first been in September 2021.

Home sales fell 1.7% in April from March and sank further below the 10-year average. Sales were still 10% higher than the starved levels in April a year ago – “however, a significant part of that gain likely reflected the timing of the Easter long weekend,” CREA pointed out.

New listings rose by 2.8% in April from March, and with the decline in sales, overall inventory jumped by 6.5% to the highest level since before the pandemic, and the second biggest jump on record, according to CREA.

Supply rose to 4.2 months, up from 3.9 months in March, and the highest supply since the beginning of the pandemic.

The Bank of Canada has tightened policy via rate hikes and QT to crack down on inflation. It hiked its overnight rate to 5.0% by July, where it still is, and it has shed 64% of its pandemic QE assets. This has put a damper on the housing market that had incredibly ballooned from already dizzying levels, fueled by the BOC’s free-money policies.

Home Prices in the most splendid Housing-Bubble Markets.

Greater Toronto Area, single-family houses: The MLS Home Price Benchmark Index for single-family houses (all prices in Canadian dollars):

• Month-to-month: +0.3% to $1,321,400; below October 2021
• From peak in February 2022: -15.1%, or -$235,600
• Year-over-year: +0.2%.

Greater Toronto Area, Condos:

• Month-to-month: +0.3% to $684,100, below November 2021
• From peak in February 2022: -12.4%
• Year-over-year: -0.8%

Hamilton-Burlington metro single family houses (in the “Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area”): Single-family benchmark price:

• Month-to-month: +1.2% to $905,900, back to June 2021
• From peak in February 2022: -20% or -$224,400
• Year-over-year: -0.8%

Hamilton-Burlington condos:

• Month-to-month: +0.7%, to $533,200, back to October 2021
• From peak in April 2022: -16.2%
• Year-over-year: -0.9%

Greater Vancouver single-family houses:

• Month-to-month: +0.5% to $2,004,100, back to January 2022.
• From peak in April 2022: -3.4% or -$59,500
• Year-over-year: +6.5%, the smallest gain since October.

Greater Vancouver condos:

• Month-to-month: -0.2% to $764,800, back to April 2022.
• Year-over-year: +3.5%, the smallest gain since July.

Victoria, single-family houses:

• Month-to-month: -0.1%, to $1,124,900, back to October 2021
• From peak in April 2022: -11.2% or -$142,000
• Year-over-year: -0.1%

Ottawa, single family houses:

• Month-to-month: +0.2% to $711,800, below June 2021
• From peak in March 2022: -11.1% or -$88,900
• Year-over-year: +2.2%.

Calgary, single family houses:

• Month-to-month: +0.4% to new high of $668,100
• Year-over-year: +11.9%.

Montreal, single family houses:

• Month-to-month: -0.4%, to $610,000, below January 2022
• From peak in May 2022: -4.2%
• Year-over-year: +3.6%.

Halifax-Dartmouth, single family houses:

• Month-to-month: +2.1% to $541,200
• From peak in February 2022: -3.6%
• Year-over-year: +4.7%.

Quebec City Area, single-family houses:

• Month-to-month: +1.5% to $400,600
• Year-over-year: +7.3%
• Eked out new high.

Wolf Richter May 17th, 2024

Posted In: Wolf Street

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