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February 29, 2024 | Why War is Inevitable & the Outcome
Martin Armstrong
One of the basic rules of war is that you always keep two fronts going simultaneously. The first is the obvious battlefield. However, the second is communication. Suppose you DO NOT keep communication open through the back channels. In that case, there is NEVER the possibility of PEACE, and the war then becomes concluded only when one side is obliterated. This is what has taken place, and the demonizing of Putin is HIGHLY dangerous, for it shows there is no intention of peace. You cannot keep calling someone a piece of shit publicly and then expect the people to accept a reversal of that policy.
Demonizing an opponent is to create hatred that leads your troops to be willing to die for some greater good. Field Marshall Goring explained it well when he was on trial at Nuremberg. You always denounce the peacemakers as conspiracy theorists, or as Nuland is calling the anti-war Republicans – “Putin’s wing of the Republican Party.” Victoria Nuland is the real Commander & Chief, not Biden, who is directing this war. She has made clear that she has absolutely no intention of stopping the war. The Neocons have spent their entire lives drooling at the thought of conquering Russia and China. When Communism fell, they never changed their view. When Ronald Reagan wanted to meet with Gorbachev, sensing that Russia wanted to end Communism, the Neocons objected, and I can tell you they told him, “You can never trust a Russian.” Reagan refused to listen and met with Gorbachev, and the Berlin Wall collapsed.
There was a peace deal that this war would have been over in 6 weeks. Putin withdrew his troops from the outskirts of Kiev as a sign of good faith that the deal would be that Zelensky would have secured the rights of the people in the Donbas and agreed not to join NATO. Putin agreed to withdraw all his troops from the occupied region in return for that agreement.
The Neocons sent Boris Johnson to kill that peace deal, proving that the West, from the outset, wanted this war they spent time to create. Since then, 500,000 Ukrainians have died, countless millions have fled Ukraine, and now sending more arms will not matter if there is nobody there left standing to fight.
This is why Zelensky fired Ukraine’s top commander, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, over his objection to the offensive and the astronomical health toll. Zelensky told the truth and initiated a draft for 500,000 fresh troops. Zaluzhnyi warned that Ukraine could not defeat Russia. The conflict with Russia had become a stalemate for months. Zaluzhnyi was very popular with the troops, and firing him was a major mistake that Zelensky, lacking any military experience, thought a general could just order people to die with no repercussions. Zelenskyy appointed the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, to lead the army, which was a sharp blow to the morale of the troops.
Syrskyi has been instrumental in Ukraine’s biggest successes during the war, including overseeing the defense of the capital in the early days of the invasion. Syrskyi was born in 1965 in the village of Novinki, Vladimir Oblast, Russian SFSR, then in the Soviet Union, into a military family of ethnic Russians. As of 2023, his parents and brother live in Russia. This demonstrates how intermixed the entire Ukraine is with ethnic Russians as Ukrainians today. I have reported previously that Kruschev grew up there and rebuilt Kiev after World War II. He merely reassigned Crimea to be administered by Kiev when it was part of Russia. Then, his successor, Brezhnev, was born in the Donbas.
The geopolitical situation concerning the Ukraine war will catalyze World War III. Historians said Europe, with its alliances, stumbled into World War I. The same is unfolding here in the 21st century. Political leaders make decisions on the immediate event without ever even thinking about what will be the next step.
This Ukrainian War is very much intertwined with the rise of China as an economic and Military superpower. Ukraine has become the stomping ground concerning the rivalry of the three great powers: the United States, Russia, and China.
The Ukraine war has triggered a completely new dynamic in the relationship between these great powers with respect to this rivalry. What is being overlooked here is that China, and not Russia, is capable of replacing the United States as the leading world economic and military power, as we warned several years ago, back in 2011 and 2018. Our model projected that China would eventually replace the United States as the leading economic power.
A number of people did not like that forecast, but my job was to present the UNBIASED projections of the computer. I have grandkids. I hate to see the future we are leaving behind. This is the data from the Federal Reserve. The differential peak occurred in 2006 with a premium of $1.3 trillion. Even since then, China has been growing in leaps and bounds, and it may even surpass the US in the 2025/2026 period and reach a peak by 2032.
All I can do is show the trend and provide the timing as to when this will unfold. This war that the Neocons are hell-bent on launching will destroy the United States in the process. The risk of dissent and even a separatist movement because of their demonizing Trump and everyone who voted for him is causing a major divide. Even Jamie Dimon has warned the Democrats this hatred they hurl at Trump is dividing the country and our model shows the separatist movement is rising. Even more than one-third of Alaskans want to separate from the USA now.
The immediate American National Security Strategy confirms the forecast we made back in 2011 and 2018 that the People’s Republic of China is the only competitor that intends to reshape the international order economically while its political government increasingly possesses the diplomatic, military, and technological power to propel and fulfill Beijing’s ambitions to create an extended sphere of influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Eventually, China will become the world’s leading economic and military power.
This is why, in the Ukraine War, the United States Neocons aimed to weaken Russia, its second geopolitical rival, politically, economically, and militarily. Then, they intend to focus on the confrontation with China, their formidable and biggest adversary. To achieve their strategic goal, the Neocons have sought close cooperation with Europe and pushed NATO to expand to Asia.
Under this new Chancellor of Germany, his visit to Washington demonstrated that Germany was apparently ready to take on a leadership role in the Ukrainian Proxy War. However, NATO intends to bring the European allies involved in a future conflict with China together with Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea. This is the planned Indo-Pacific network of partners and allies against China. There is reason to infer that Macron’s recent statement to send Troops into Ukraine may be more of a rivalry with Germany for the lead role.
This may seem a wise move on the surface by the Neocons first to take down Russia, which they perceive to be the weaker of the two geopolitical rivals. Secondly, they will launch another Proxy War using Taiwan for canon fodder rather than directly confront China, which is clearly the stronger opponent.
I believe that the Neocons are making a huge mistake by opening a strategic military two-front confrontation against China and Russia, which is a ticking nuclear time bomb that will engulf the entire world. North Korea is producing arms for Russia, and it has instructed its army to “grid for war.” North Korea has a deal manufacturing ammunition for Russia. In return, Russia is providing the desperately needed food for North Korea.
Zelensky has routinely lied about the casualties to keep up the propaganda. This demonstrates the determination behind this propaganda over the last two years, rendering it understandable when one knows that Germany plays a particularly important role on the geopolitical chessboard of the United States. For years, the unspoken fear was the union of Germany and Russia, which would be a formidable match of industrial production with Russia’s limitless raw materials resources. A union of Russia and Germany would represent the only power that could threaten the United States economically in that sphere comparable to China’s.
This places Macron’s shocking proposition to send NATO troops into Ukraine to appear to be taking the lead from Germany, but also because Ukraine cannot survive. The fall of Ukraine undermines this entire strategy and exposes the flaws in the goals of the Neocons. Russia never intended to conquer Ukraine. Putin only sent in 190,000 troops when Ukraine had nearly 500,000 trained by the West. The fact that Putin’s troops reached Kiev in the first weeks demonstrated the superiority of the Russian military. Sending Western troops into Ukraine, as Macron proposed, would be insane, for then it is a direct confrontation without any communication for peace.
Macron even said, “Nothing should be excluded.“ He also added: “There is no consensus at this stage.” However, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico suggested that “a number of NATO and EU member states are considering that they will send their troops to Ukraine on a bilateral basis.” He did not offer many details, saying he could not specify why the troops would be sent and their mission.
As I warned, sending in NATO troops to Ukraine will be a Declaration of War. Putin came out and warned that Western nations “must realize that we also have weapons that can hit targets on their territory.” He added: “All this really threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons and the destruction of civilization. Don’t they get that?” Putin has been criticized at home by the hardliners that he has been a fool and that this has been a war really with the USA and NATO.
I have been warning for the past two years that the prospect of creating World War III BEFORE the 2024 election was a reality. The Belarusian President, Alexander Lukashenko, has called it like it is. He is warning that the West is on the ” edge of the abyss ” of World War Three. Lukashenko has made it clear that he has “legitimate concerns” about the likelihood of a global conflict and accused the West of fuelling war tensions and pushing the world towards disaster. I cannot disagree. The F16s were for defense, and now NATO has lifted all restrictions.
“We are literally covered with an information wave of the so-called premonition of the third world war, which just a lazy one still hasn’t mentioned. And there are grounds for these fears,” Lukashenko said, according to Sky News.
Besides Macron, NATO is pushing for war, altering the terms of handing Ukraine weapons for defense to outright invasion of Russia. The head of NATO approved Ukraine to to use the F16s to fly into Russia and start bombing their cities as a deliberate provocation, praying Russia would attack so they could call them the aggressor. All they have to do is honor the Minsk Agreement, and the war will end in 24 hours. These people are filled with such hatred it is beyond description.
Let’s make it very clear. Ukraine has been destroyed, and Zelensky has so much blood on his hands it will never wash off. Ukraine cannot launch any offensive. They are pulling back and now seeking to defend themselves. They have surrendered, and they hope to retake the Donbas; and Russia is likely to take Odesa – where the Ukrainians started the civil war and the whole separatist movement by slaughtering and Russian speaking Ukrainians burning them alive in the Trade Union Building in 2014, pushing their old Nazi position of ethnic cleansing.
The Neocons should take a lesson from the Romans, who knew that war’s outcome was never 100% assured. Their god, Janus, represented the beginning and ending of conflict – war and peace. In ancient Rome, the Temple of Janus stood in the Roman Forum with doors on both ends and inside was a statue of Janus, who is always represented as the two-faced god after whom January is named. So when we celebrate New Year’s Eve, we say goodbye to the past and hello to the future, which is a concept stemming from Janus.
The Gates of the Temple of Janus were the main purpose behind the Temple itself, for it tied together warfare and religious tradition. The opening and closing of the gates were to symbolize either wartime or peace. The historian Virgil said the gates held in Discord and Fury inside the Temple during peace. When the Gates were open, this let the discord free, whereby the historian Horace inferred that if Janus himself was kept locked in the temple, then there was peace. During the reign of Augustus, it was said that the doors were shut three times – Pax Romana.
These Neocons should ponder the question: What if I am wrong? They, like Zelensky, will destroy the West and render it subservient to China in the end.
After the fall of Rome, Byzantium became the major power. When they fell in 1453, the power shifted to India, the source of all the Spice Trade. Their main rival was China, and they eventually overtook India as the Financial Capital of the World. Europe undermined them as the British conquered India and then China. But World War I and II shifted that laurel wreath to the United States. The Neocons have invited war and opened the Gates to let Discord and Flury run freely to engulf the world. This time, the laurel wreath will pass to China. Nothing ever lasts forever.
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Martin Armstrong February 29th, 2024
Posted In: Armstrong Economics