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September 9, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday September 9th 2023
Don Vialoux
Donald Vialoux is author of the free blog Tech Talk, a daily investment report available during the past 20 years at www.timingthemarket.ca. Comments focus on the seasonal and technical outlook for equity indices, commodities and sectors. Mr. Vialoux has 53 years of experience in the investment industry and is a past president of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA).
The Bottom Line
Lots of “noise” bothering North American equity markets this week!
- Possible autoworker strikes in Canada and U.S. starting September 14th. Bargaining positions between the union and companies remain wide.
- Possible shut down of the U.S. government by Congress if unable to reach a deficit limit agreement before the end of September. The House of Representative returns from holidays today facing 12 legislative bills that need urgent approval. Most important bill is extension of the U.S. government debt ceiling limit. Financial differences on the bill between conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats are substantial. Chance of at least a short term shut down of the U.S. government before the end of the month is higher than usual. If an agreement is not reached quickly, U.S. government debt temporarily may default, U.S. government debt rating will be reduced (again), government employees, social benefits recipients and the military will not receive salary and social assistance payments and Federal government services will shut down.
- Continuation of hurricane season. One of the strongest hurricanes in recent history (possible a category 5 with winds greater than 150 mph) is moving toward the U.S. mainland. Chances are good that the hurricane will start moving to the north instead of into the Gulf of Mexico, but likely will disrupt economic activity along the U.S. East Coast. At worst, it could move into the New York/ Boston corridor as well as into Nova Scotia and Newfoundland where destruction could be significant.
- Disturbing economic news. The August Consumer Price report this Wednesday and the Producer Price Index report this Thursday are expected to raise concerns by the Federal Reserve that recent declines in annual inflation toward its 2% target have stalled. Indeed, consensus for CPI and PPI in the month of August is predicting an increase from July. Enthusiasm for equity prices likely will be dampened until after the next FOMC announcement on interest rates on September 20th.
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Don Vialoux September 9th, 2023
Posted In: Tech Talk
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