Good news: Big Wall Street Investors like Blackrock, Blackstone, Invitation Homes, and Progress Residential are no longer buying up the housing market. As the rental supply balloons, rents are starting to fall. The next leg of housing downturns typically see for-sale listings surge and prices fall. Nick Gerli explains well in his latest video segment.
Especially in cities like Charlotte, Atlanta, and Las Vegas, where investor purchases declined by over 60%. Investors are bailing on these markets because a combination of 1) higher interest rates, 2) higher vacancies, and 3) lower rents is making real estate investment a money-losing proposition.
The issue with Mortgage Rates is especially problematic. Because now the 30-year fixed mortgage rate of around 7% is way above the income yield (or cap rate) that investors get from their rental. So quite literally – real estate investors who buy today with debt are losing money on their property. And thus they’ve stopped buying.
But when will these big Wall Street real estate investors start selling? Because so far they’ve held onto their houses. And thus inventory on the US Housing Market is low. But I suspect eventually, as more houses sit vacant and the tax, insurance, and mortgage bills pile-up, more investors will be induced to sell. Especially in a market like Nashville, where the investor purchases are down over 50% in the last year and the inventory on the market has surged. Here is a direct video link.
Mortgage rates are not high. By historical standards they are normal. I knew someone who bought a house in 1961 and his mortgage rate was 6 3/4 percent. And nobody considered that to be a high mortgage rate. It was considered to be “par for the course”. It was the very low mortgage rates of the past decade that were abnormal. Investors and home buyers should get used to the idea that they will be paying 7% mortgages from now on, and probably for many decades.