If you want to know how much food has gone up in the last 12 months, don’t ask the US government – ask people who shop for food everyday.

Based on a survey of 8,000 US grocery shoppers nationwide, they said food at home prices rose by an estimated 22.6% from April 2022 to April 2023 – which was more than 15 points higher than the figure reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

My wife Pam edits my Timing Letters.  Because Pam is 100% Italian – “Sicilian” to be more precise – she shops for fresh food almost everyday.

When editing a Timing Letter from about a year ago, she looked at a government inflation chart that I posted showing food prices had risen 7.8% in the previous 12 months.

“That’s complete b*ll sh*t,” Pam stated, “it’s more than double that.” 

In Summary

No, the CPI does measure the real Cost of Living.  Inflation is significantly worse than the government reports – and that’s why I believe mortgage rates are more likely to rise than fall in the months and years ahead.