May 25, 2023 | US Debt Ceiling, Default and US Dollar

Bitcoin, Gold, Crude Oil.   Receive 50% Off VR Trader Newsletters! Enter Promo Code 2022HALFOFF.

May 25, 2023 | Mining vs. Silver Demand

Silver Miners, Coins, and Stocks

May 24, 2023 | 30 Tons of Ammonium Nitrate Goes Missing

(video from Dyno Nobel’s YouTube channel) A lot of expensive and lethal weapons of war have been reported missing this week. There have been numerous train derailments in America this year, and trains containing lethal materials routinely do not make it to their final destination. A railcar holding over 60,000 pounds of ammonium nitrate left […]

May 24, 2023 | Recession Watch: 10 “Hard Landing” Charts

firmly in the rearview mirror. Most Americans still have jobs. And the debt limit pseudo crisis is in its final inning and — if history is any guide — will be resolved soon. So why does it seem like we’re tipping into a recession, or something much worse? The general answer is that behind the […]

May 24, 2023 | Now Playing: 6th Major Housing Downturn Since 1960s

The median new US home in April sold for $420,800 -15% lower than the peak last October. Less spending is evident in home improvement spending too. Yesterday, Lowe’s joined Home Depot in announcing a year-over-year decline in same-store sales (the first since 2009) with a marked fall-off in big-ticket purchases. Higher interest rates and falling […]

May 23, 2023 | Commercial RE: Mean Reversion in Progress

    Of course we do not live in the future, but investors have to be prepared for it.  Commercial RE prices fell 37% during the last downturn as investor expectations became too high in Sept 2007. And as is usually the case, when overly optimistic expectations are met with the reality that prices don’t […]

May 23, 2023 | Largest Property Owners Strategically Defaulting on Mortgages

Some property owners are defaulting on mortgages because they lack the cash flow to make payments; others are defaulting to cut investment losses and hand properties over to lenders. See, Top property owners are credit-worthy–they might default anyway: “The thinking was that the institutions would be the last to give the keys back, but it may […]

May 22, 2023 | France to Confiscate All Private Land by 2025

QUESTION: I am writing to you today to seek your expert advice on a much-discussed topic in France: the Lagleize Law. As you probably know, this law, if passed, could radically change the way property ownership is structured in France. The Lagleize law proposes to separate the ownership of the building from the land on […]

May 22, 2023 | Becoming Invisible, Part 3: Hiding From Google

The ultimate goal, of course, is to completely dispense with Google, Facebook, and all their surveillance capitalist brethren. But for most people (including me) that’s a huge leap into the unknown. So … baby steps. For now let’s say you’re using Gmail, the Chrome browser, and/or Google Search and you’d like to minimize the amount […]

May 22, 2023 | No Need to Panic, Yet

Happy Monday Morning! Inflation came in hotter than expected in April. Headline inflation ticked in at 4.4%, well above the 4.1% that was expected. It was the first month over month increase in the rate of headline inflation since June 2022. Naturally, panic ensured shortly thereafter. Markets immediately removed their expectations for a rate cut […]

May 21, 2023 | One-Third of Canadians Support Killing the Homeless – Modern Eugenics

Canada’s largest eugenics program is underway after MAID (Medical Assistance in Dying) was expanded to include those without terminal illnesses. Someone may qualify for MAID if they are simply “too poor to live with dignity,” according to the Canadian government. A recent poll found that, while most Canadians are against the idea, one-third support assisted […]

May 21, 2023 | Did the Bear Rally Top on Friday?

Maybe. Yeah, right. A headline here just two weeks ago implied that stocks were about to go bananas: Why a Permabear Is Certain We’re Going Much Higher.  Hubris aside, this was based on the very bullish chart of just one stock, Chipotle (CMG). It had just crossed the $2,000 threshold and appeared — still appears — […]

May 21, 2023 | Technology Turning

We often talk about technology’s influence on the economy. After the Strategic Investment Conference, though, I’ve decided that isn’t strong enough. It’s more correct to say technology is the economy. But when I use the word technology here, I’m not talking about the big, nifty eight tech companies that dominate today’s stock market. I’m talking […]

May 20, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For May 20, 2023

The US Dollar rallied against virtually all currencies over the past two weeks The US Dollar Index hit a 20-year high last September but then trended lower (down ~12%) to support levels ~101. Net speculative positioning was very bullish on the USD leading up to the September 2022 highs. It had turned very bearish at the recent […]

May 20, 2023 | Is Zelensky Concerned About a Coup?

There are quiet whispers inside various EU governments that Zelensky should resign. Inside Ukraine, it was highly suspicious that in January, conveniently, Ukraine’s leading officials in the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine (similar to our FBI) charged with protecting the state and the people against illegal actions by those in power all died in […]

May 20, 2023 | Chinese Property Market in Turmoil Too

The segment below offers interesting insight into the Chinese real estate cycle as the easy credit era ends. Similar trends are happening around the world, all at the same time. The May Day Golden Week used to be one of the peak seasons for real estate sales in China. However, this year’s May Day holiday […]

May 20, 2023 | This Week in Money

• Ross Clark – Stock Markets, Oil, Gold, USD, Natural Gas
• Martin Straith –  (10:20) Interest Rates, US Debt Ceiling, AI Mania, Gold and Silver.  Special Offer!
• Wolf Richter –  (29:35) US Consumer Spending, Inflation, Electric Vehicles, Oil, Commercial Real Estate

May 20, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday May 20th 2023

The Bottom Line Lots of noise, typical for the month of May and the first three weeks of June! On the positive side, any stock remotely connected to Artificial Intelligence soared last week. The S&P 500 Index and NASDAQ 100 Index briefly touched nine month highs on Friday thanks to their technology equity content connected […]

May 19, 2023 | A Geopolitical Event Could Rock the Financial Markets

  Geopolitical events can move markets, if only temporarily. Crises on a world scale frighten investors, causing them to make hasty decisions that can be harmful to their financial success. Could a geopolitical event cause investor panic? The history of geopolitical events shows that markets can survive most events without much trouble. For example, a […]

May 19, 2023 | The Gold Crash & Our Fate

COMMENT: Marty; Socrates is absolutely amazing. At the start of the year, you showed April as a key turning point in gold followed by May June. The weekly array projected this was the week for the Directional Change. There is nobody with a system like this, which brings to mind its forecasts for war. Ukrainians are […]

May 19, 2023 | Real Estate Icon Sam Zell: Right One Last Time

I’m old enough to have followed Sam Zell during the second half of his storied real estate career. And in that time he’s been right in a big way on the major financial turning points. At the bubble peaks of 1999 and 2007, for instance, he sold most of his commercial real estate and loaded […]

May 19, 2023 | Price Discovery Coming For Realty Sector

Historically it has been typical at the beginning of real-estate downturns for listings to decline as owners try and extend loans rather than sell properties at lower prices. That has happened over the past year with residential and commercial properties. At first, this suppresses inventory for sale and reduces price discovery, stalling the clearing process. […]

May 19, 2023 | Will China’s Yuan Replace USD as Reserve Currency?

Tough times for commercial real estate

May 18, 2023 | Why Ukraine Must Lose to Save the World

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I originally thought you were just a Putin supporter. Yet as time has gone by, it is becoming very clear that you are correct and that Zelensky is waging this war for the West to conquer Russia. His meeting with the Pope and rejecting his offer to mediate clearly established he will […]