March 13, 2023 | Gradually, then Suddenly

Happy Monday Morning! Central banks finally broke something. After leaving rates hovering near zero for over a decade and engaging in trillions of dollars worth of QE (Quantitative Easing) you can’t simply raise interest rates by 400bps in less than a year without something going boom in the night. It was never a matter of […]

March 13, 2023 | Backstops for Depositors, Not Risk Markets

  The Silicon Valley Bank (SVB, founded in 1984) and Signature Bank (publicly traded since 2004) closures over the weekend are the second and third largest US bank failures in history (the largest eight failed banks in assets and deposits, are shown below).   Banking failures tend to be contagious. To quell depositor fears, the […]

March 12, 2023 | The Metals Are Not Manipulated

COMMENT: Marty; Two former Merrill Lynch traders were each sentenced to a year and a day in prison Thursday for manipulating the precious metals markets, the US Department of Justice said Thursday. Of course, —- —–, which is forever bullish metals, claims they moved the metals in the “direction they wanted from 2008 to 2014.” […]

March 12, 2023 | Thousand-Word Equivalents

If a picture is worth a thousand words, this will be the “longest” letter I’ve sent you in a while, as there are quite a few pictures. It may also be the most wide-ranging. Every Wednesday my Over My Shoulder members get a PDF file with some of the week’s most interesting charts, all selected […]

March 11, 2023 | US Blows up NordStream Pipeline in Act of War

  The Neocons are in control of US Foreign Policy

March 11, 2023 | RIP Silicon Valley Bank: Shut Down by California Regulator, Taken Over by FDIC, Shareholders Bailed In, Insured Depositors to Get their Cash by Monday

Silicon Valley Bank, a California state-chartered bank that was uniquely exposed to the massive all-encompassing startup bubble during the Free Money era – a bubble that is now imploding spectacularly amid what is called a mass extinction event among startups – was shut down and taken over Friday morning by the California Department of Financial […]

March 11, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For March 11, 2023

Break something? The Fed has been raising interest rates for the past year to bring inflation down to its target range of ~2%. For the past several months, the market has been trying to guess “what would have to happen” for the Fed to either slow their pace of raising rates, stop, or start cutting rates. […]

March 11, 2023 | Loonie and Treasury Yields Diving Together

The US dollar touched a five-month high against the loonie this week (shown below since late 2020, courtesy of my partner Cory Venable) as the Bank of Canada held at 4.5% and hawkish talk from the US Fed increased odds of a US overnight rate of 5% on March 22. With recessionary data and credit […]

March 11, 2023 | This Week in Money

• Ross Clark – Stock Markets, US Bank Failures, USD, Precious Metals
• Martin Armstrong –  (13:02) Neocons, Global Warfare, Digital Currencies, Bitcoin
• Victor Adair –  (58:08) Banking System, Interest Rates, Oil, Gold

March 10, 2023 | Hoards – Even Gold

    In times of economic distress, people will hoard their wealth. This is as true in ancient times as it is in modern times. I was called in about a hoard of gold – one thousand $20 St Gaudians gold coins all dated 1924 – uncirculated. As you see, I have a reputation for […]

March 10, 2023 | People We Should Know: Marjory Wildcraft

While we’re thinking about prepping, let’s segue from bugging out to staying put, with the following premise: In a world where we can’t trust factory farms, Big Pharma, or any regulatory agency, a family that makes most of its own food and medicine has a vastly better chance of surviving and thriving than one that’s dependent on […]

March 10, 2023 | EPB Macro: The Real Reason Home Prices are Falling

Well explained, as usual. In this video, we discuss why most of the market was unable to predict the current 2023 housing crash and how this housing meltdown could continue to unfold into the rest of 2023. Here is a direct video link. In January, the combination of a 15% price cut and lower mortgage rates […]

March 10, 2023 | Warren Buffett Speaks and Smart People Listen

The world’s most successful long-term investor, Warren Buffett, writes an annual letter to shareholders about investing and the recent performance of his investment vehicle, Berkshire Hathaway. This year’s letter came out last weekend, and like always, the short piece contains interesting ideas, comments and tips on investing. Why not take advantage of his wisdom, at […]

March 10, 2023 | Collapsed Silicon Valley Bank a “Classic” Failure

US Yield Curve inversion predicting severe recession

March 9, 2023 | Are We As Prepped As We Think?

My wife and I live in a place that’s pretty but hazardous. Earthquakes (there’s a big offshore subduction zone), forest fires (lots of trees), war (a nearby military installation), and civil unrest (a city a couple of hours away) are all at least theoretically possible here. And of course there’s the shared American problem of […]

March 9, 2023 | The Credit Suisse Latest Scandal

Credit Suisse has gone from one crisis to the next. Last month alone, the bank reported that customers have withdrawn $120 billion. A rogue employee stole the names of people with $50 million or more and probably gave that to tax authorities for a bribe – the second time this has taken place in Switzerland. […]

March 9, 2023 | Fed Hangs Tough

FOMC chair Powell disappointed equity markets this week with testimony reiterating his insistence that financial conditions must keep tightening (through higher for longer interest rates and ongoing balance sheet reduction “QT”) amid growing strife throughout the world economy. Indeed, Powell unapologetically explained (and he’s correct) that higher unemployment, lower economic activity and less financial speculation […]

March 9, 2023 | Stock Market Could Collapse 15-20% More

Low energy stock prices could lead to buying opportunity

March 9, 2023 | Crude Oil, US Dollar, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin

Manipulation, Presidential Stock Cycle, Solar Flares.  Receive 50% Off VR Trader Newsletters! Enter Promo Code 2022HALFOFF.

March 8, 2023 | Why Most Americans Cannot Afford a Home – A Price Breakdown

Are you too poor for the basic human necessity of shelter in Biden’s America? The average home price in Q4 of 2022 was $535,800, according to the St. Louis Fed.  If you live in a highly desirable area, expect to pay more. To simplify the math, let’s say that you are looking to purchase a […]

March 8, 2023 | DiMartino-Booth on the Economy’s Masked Collapse

Excellent data and cogent observations in this segment. Danielle DiMartino Boooth fom “Quill Intelligence” discusses the economy and what you can do to prepare for when the masked collapse happens. Here is a direct video link.

March 7, 2023 | Fed Rates Up into 2024?

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has made it clear that he sees higher interest rates ahead in his battle against inflation and their unrealistic 2% target. Many traders are now scrambling talking about how Powell said the Fed will probably raise rates more and possibly faster than previously anticipated. They are now taking that as a […]

March 7, 2023 | You Cannot Control the Wind

                   The pessimist complains about the wind.                  The optimist expects it to change.                   The realist adjusts the sails.

March 7, 2023 | Understanding Bond Yields and Mortgage Rates

As mentioned in the segment below, in America, more than 90% of mortgages are fixed for terms greater than ten years, and 95% of existing mortgages are at rates less than presently on offer. And yet, as shown below, since 1977, US mortgage payments to income are already at unaffordability levels seen in the last […]