February 28, 2023 | Imminent Bankruptcies, Part 1: Carvana and Beyond Meat

One of the signposts on the road to recession (or in today’s case Depression) is a sudden increase in the number of former Wall Street favorites going bankrupt. The reason this happens when it does is that when money is easy, new companies are able to finance their emergence by selling a “disruptive” story to […]

February 28, 2023 | Stress Compounding at Higher Rates

Thirteen years of ultra-loose monetary conditions, followed by the sharpest tightening cycle in 40 years, have wrought record household debt service payments (in orange below, courtesy of The Daily Shot) and a record low savings ratio (grey line) Year-over-year growth in consumer debt payments since 2020 (blue line below since 1986, courtesy of Morgan Stanley) has […]

February 27, 2023 | Is The Copper Story As Good As Everyone Says?

How does “energy transition metal in chronic shortage” sound? Copper is about as old-school as it gets. A metal that was used as low-denomination coinage from the Roman Empire through modern times and as an electrical conductor since the invention of the light bulb, it’s been both in demand and relatively easy to find, basically […]

February 27, 2023 | Banking on the Gravy Train

Happy Monday Morning! Some good news on the inflation front in Canada this past week. Headline inflation ticked in at 5.9% year-over-year, below market expectations of 6.1%. Inflation in services, which is one of the key figures policymakers are watching, eased to 5.3%, from 5.6% in December. The Bank of Canada’s preferred median and trim […]

February 27, 2023 | Ship of Fools

QUESTION: Do you think that this entire scam with cryptocurrencies that the government will be able to track, do they realize that in war you take down the power grid and all digital currency fails? If the backup system is destroyed, all your digital currency will vanish. Are they this stupid? Is this why they […]

February 27, 2023 | Innovating for Smarter Energy and Transportation

Humans can be so bright and innovative when they try to be…thankfully, many people are. Renewable rooftop power will play a vital role in the decentralised community grid systems of the future. Getting every ounce of power out of available rooftop spaces will be key to making that transition a success. Now a Dutch firm […]

February 26, 2023 | Deficits Forever

“Diamonds are forever,” according to the jewelry industry. That may be a slight exaggeration, yet diamonds will certainly outlive you and whomever you give them to. Debt isn’t forever but can definitely seem like it. That feeling is a clue you have too much debt. Wisely used, debt helps build income-generating assets that pay for themselves. The […]

February 26, 2023 | Uranium’s Bull Market Has Barely Begun

Uranium investments topped the list of exciting takeaways from the Mines & Money conference held in Miami last week. Keynote speaker Chris Temple, editor of The National Investor, dispelled nagging doubts about atomic power’s future when he noted that Greta ‘How-dare-you!’ Thunberg has been distancing herself from fellow activists who remain vociferously opposed to nuclear energy. […]

February 26, 2023 | What a Deal

February 26, 2023 | Will 7% Mortgages Crush Housing?

Between 2020 and 2022 houses in America’s hottest real estate markets went from unaffordable to 50% above unaffordable. Put another way, they did what would have been impossible in an economy where market forces determined interest rates and home prices. But ours was not that kind of market. Central banks around the world had lost […]

February 25, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For February 25, 2023

Interest rates keep rising Incoming inflation data has been hotter than expected; forward markets are now pricing another 75bps increase from the Fed (25 bps at each of the March, May and June FOMC meetings), taking the terminal rate to ~5.4% by August, with modest declines from there into year-end. Short rates in June are […]

February 25, 2023 | People We Should Know: Catherine Austin Fitts

These days we all have our theories about how and why the 1% have become so rabidly predatory (find my recent take here). But the most sophisticated – and scariest – analysis comes from Catherine Austin Fitts. As an Assistant Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) in the Bush Jr administration, Catherine noticed that huge […]

February 25, 2023 | This Week in Money

• Ross Clark –  Stock Markets, USD, Oil, Copper
• John Rubino – (13:21)  Recession, Gold, US Dollar, Mortgage Rates, World War 3
• Wolf Richter –  (41:04) Interest Rates, Consumer Spending, Autos, Real Estate

February 24, 2023 | Biden Guarantees Pensions of Ukraine – Not Americans

QUESTION: Marty; Why would Biden allow the billions he is sending to fill the pensions of government workers in Ukraine? YD ANSWER: This video has been going viral. However, this was from the beginning – of April 28th, 2022. The pensions are all the Ukrainian politicians – not the people. This is the kickback for destroying their […]

February 24, 2023 | The Russia Ukraine Conflict Drags on into a Second Year

The Russia Ukraine “special military operation” is now one year old and showing no signs of ending. A surprise visit of US President Joe Biden to Ukraine promising “unwavering support” ensures that the US will not cut back on assistance and that Ukraine forces will not be defeated on the battlefield in the near future. […]

February 24, 2023 | Central Banks in No Position to “Have Your Back”

Recession soft landing? How about no landing!

February 23, 2023 | Markets & War

The financial markets had become integrated globally prior to World War I. It was the globalization and openness of world financial markets that became the problem and are important to understand for we will face the same problem today. The capital was free to flow from one country to another before World War I.  All […]

February 23, 2023 | What Will Happen When Banks Go Bust? Bank Runs, Bail-Ins and Systemic Risk

Financial podcasts have been featuring ominous headlines lately along the lines of “Your Bank Can Legally Seize Your Money” and “Banks Can STEAL Your Money?! Here’s How!” The reference is to “bail-ins:” the provision under the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act allowing Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFIs, basically the biggest banks) to bail in or expropriate their […]

February 23, 2023 | Ides of March and Market Madness

US Dollar, Gold, Bitcoin.  Receive 50% Off VR Trader Newsletters! Enter Promo Code 2022HALFOFF.

February 23, 2023 | Rosenberg: The Pending Recession

This segment offers another worthwhile macro overview.  High-risk warning on the defence and gold mining stock “trade ideas,” as Dave says, only “for those with ice in their veins.” Word to the wise. “There’s not a snowball’s chance in hell we hit the lows in the stock market in advance of a big bond rally.” “I think […]

February 23, 2023 | Copper, Lithium, Crude Oil, US Dollar

Uranium, Cannabis

February 23, 2023 | Real US Economic Numbers

US Dollar, Inflation, Crude Oil, Gold

February 22, 2023 | Is the Biden Administration Just Completely Brain-Dead?

Russia has deployed tactical nuclear weapons on all its ships. The US arrogantly told China not to support Russia or that they would impose sanctions on China as they have done with Russia. That is like waving a red flag in front of a bull. Once you make such a public demand on China, they […]

February 22, 2023 | Grantham: After a Timeout, Back to the Meat Grinder

GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham’s latest market letter is worth the read as usual; see After a timeout, back to the meat grinder! On equities, Grantham’s base case is that the S&P 500 could fall a further 20% by year-end, for a total real decline of 40% since 2022. My calculations of trendline value of the S&P 500, […]