May 16

Secular Versus Cyclical: Notes from SIC 2015

The consensus I’m hearing and reading from the 500+ attendees at the recent Strategic Investment Conference is that this was…

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Apr 27

The Third and Final Transformation of Monetary Policy

The law of unintended consequences is becoming ever more prominent in the economic sphere, as the world becomes exponentially more…

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Apr 21

Half a Bubble Off Dead Center

I can sense a growing unease as I talk with investors and other friends, from professional market watchers and traders…

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Apr 9

Economists in Glass Houses

For many economists, the chicken and egg question is, which came first, consumption or production? What drives growth? Let’s continue…

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Mar 28

Living in a Free-Lunch World

“Everyone is a prisoner of his own experiences. No one can eliminate prejudices – just recognize them.” Edward R. Murrow,…

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Mar 11

Never Smile at a Crocodile

“High debt levels, whether in the public or private sector, have historically placed a drag on growth and raised the…

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Feb 24

Debt Be Not Proud

Some things never change. Here is Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk, one of the founding intellectuals of the Austrian school of economics,…

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Feb 15

Mamas, Don’t Let Your Babies Grow Up to

We do not have to look to Greece to find massively underfunded obligations. Here in the US we can find…

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Feb 9

The Eurozone: Collateral Damage

Collateral damage. Unintended consequences. Friendly fire. Certainly no one intended to have a global banking meltdown when they let Lehman…

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Feb 3

Portfolio Strategies 2015: Investing in an Age of

With all the negative news out of Europe, how do you find a positive story? Is there a way to…

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Jan 27

How Global Interest Rates Deceive Markets

“You keep on using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.” – Inigo Montoya, The…

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Jan 20

The Swiss Release the Kraken!

“Below the thunders of the upper deep, Far far beneath in the abysmal sea, His ancient, dreamless, uninvaded sleep The Kraken sleepeth: faintest…

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Jan 13

A Five-Year Global Financial Forecast: Tsunami Warning

It is the time of the year for forecasts; but rather than do an annual forecast, which is as much…

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Jan 4

Why the World Needs the US Economy to

The headlines this morning talk about the US dollar hitting an 11-year high. I have been saying for years that…

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Dec 22

The US Dollar and the Cone of Uncertainty

Currently we have an international monetary non-system. Nobody has to follow any rules. Everybody does what they consider is in…

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Dec 17

Oil, Employment, and Growth

Last week we started a series of letters on the topics I think we need to research in depth as…

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Dec 7

Macroeconomics Finally Gets Interesting

“The future is already here – it's just not very evenly distributed.” – William Gibson, Hall of Fame science fiction writer Since…

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Dec 1

Is Bitcoin the Future?

Bitcoin is a topic of discussion almost everywhere I go. My introduction to Bitcoin came when I was speaking at…

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Nov 24

On the Verge of Chaos

“Great powers and empires are, I would suggest, complex systems, made up of a very large number of interacting components…

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