Jun 26

End of the UK? Poll Shows 59% of

In the wake of the Brexit vote, two issues regarding Scotland have arisen. Can the Scottish parliament veto the referendum? Will Scotland…

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Jun 25

Hollande Meets Le Pen to Discuss Brexit; Can

In the wake of the stunning Brexit vote come news that French president Francois Hollande has called for a meeting…

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Jun 24

Cameron Resigns; Puff the Magic Cameron; UK Tells

In the wake of a stunning (but well deserved) vote in favor of the UK telling the EU to “go…

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Jun 23

New Home Sales Decline 6%, Median Price Down

News home sales in May fell 6% from a downward revision to April’s huge numbers. Those April numbers looked too good…

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Jun 22

ECB Running Out of Bonds to Buy for

ECB rules say QE bond purchases must be weighted according to size of the economy. That means German bonds are…

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Jun 21

Target2 Imbalances Grow: ECB Overtakes Greece as Third

Target2 imbalances in the eurozone continue to mount. The ECB itself now has the third largest negative balance following Italy…

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Jun 20

7 of Last 9 Recessions Started in Quarters

Think recessions begin when GDP is negative? Think 2 quarters of negative growth are required to start a recession? If you…

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Jun 19

Brexit Poll Tracker Back to Even (44 to

The Financial Times Brexit Tracker, an aggregate of polls shows things are back at tossup. Two days ago, things stood…

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Jun 17

Remain Group Tries to Capitalize on Murder of

Following the senseless murder of UK parliament member and Remain backer Jo Cox, the remain forces have come out to…

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Jun 16

Massive Attitude Shifts in Latest Brexit Polls: Remain

Inquiring minds are investigating more details in the highly regarded Ipos MORI Telephone Poll regarding Brexit. A series of charts from…

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Jun 15

Rate Hike Odds Update: December Odds Just Crashed

I was a bit early or CME Fedwatch a little late on rate hike odds as discussed in my previous…

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Jun 14

US Recession Odds Hit 55% According to Deutsche

A Deutsche Bank yield curve model says the odds of a US recession are now 55%. Specifically, the model notes…

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Jun 13

Yuan Headed for New Low vs. US Dollar?

The rally in the Yuan from January through mid-March has mostly been erased. If the yuan continues to sink, protectionists in…

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Jun 12

19 Point Lead for “Leave” in Latest Brexit

Following news of a potentially flawed on Friday that shows a 10 point lead in favor of Brexit comes an…

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Jun 10

Home Ownership Rates Vary Wildly: What’s Going On?

Reader Duncan Burns, a writer for the “Valley Patriot”, a local newspaper in North Andover, Massachusetts pinged me with an…

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Jun 9

US Tax Receipts Signaling Recession?

US federal personal tax receipts receipts are falling fast. So is the Evercore ISI State Tax Survey. The last two times…

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Jun 8

BLS Says Jobs Openings Up; Actually, Openings Falling

The BLS JOLTS (Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover) report came out today. The BLS claims jobs openings are up. Based on…

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Jun 7

Productivity Declines 0.6%, Labor Costs Rise 4.5%; What’s

Wages are up and output per hour is down. Is this the magic mix for what ails the economy? Productivity declined…

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Jun 6

US Seeks “Total Ban” on Chinese Steel: Alarm

Protectionists are on the cusp of a “Pyrrhic victory” over China. No one will like the results when it happens. A huge…

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