Recent data shows the
economic slump in the UK and Eurozone is
accelerating to the downside at a rapid pace.
Let's review a few articles supporting that
view.
UK Business
lending Falls At Record Pace
Angela Monaghan at the Telegraph reports
Lending to British businesses falls at record
pace
Lending to British
businesses fell by £4.3bn in December, the
Bank of England said on Thursday, in a further
sign of banks' persistent unwillingness to
lend.
Net lending on an annual basis was down 8.1pc.
which was the weakest since comparable records
began more than a decade ago.
Separate figures from the Bank showed the
slowest annual growth in the M4 or broad money
supply since February 2000, with growth of
5.1pc. The growth in M4 lending was also at
its lowest since December 1994.
UK Mortgage
Lending Drops 32% To 10 Year Low
The Telegraph Reports
Mortgage lending falls to 10-year low
Total mortgage
advances dropped by 32 per cent to £9.1
billion during the month, the lowest level
since February 2000, according to the Council
of Mortgage Lenders (CML).
This year's drop was larger than usual, and
had been caused by people buying lower-value
properties rushing to push through their
purchase before the stamp duty holiday ended
at the beginning of this year.
Brian Murphy, head of lending at Mortgage
Advice Bureau, said: "We shouldn't read too
much into the January data, which is a result
of both seasonal factors and December's stamp
duty holiday rush.
Fools Rush In
In sharp contrast to the views Murphey, I advise
one should not underestimate the effect of mad
fools buying property they cannot afford, at
ridiculous prices, just to beat a stamp duty
holiday.
It is a serious mistake to confuse tax schemes,
and stimulus with genuine demand.
UK Budget
Crisis Worse Than Greece
Edmund Conway and James Kirkup at the Telegraph
report
Britain at risk of worse deficit crisis than
Greece.
In surprise news
which sent the pound sliding on Thursday,
official figures showed that the Government
borrowed £4.3 billion last month.
It was the first time since 1993 that the
public finances had gone into the red in
January – a month in which tax revenues
usually push the Exchequer into the black.
Economists said that the scale of the
shortfall in the budget could this year mount
to above £180 billion – higher than even the
Chancellor’s forecast of a record £178
billion.
Such a deficit would, at 12.8 per cent of
British gross domestic product, be even
greater than the deficit faced in Greece,
which is facing a full-scale fiscal crisis and
may need to be bailed out by fellow euro
nations or the International Monetary Fund.
The poor economic figures came as a major blow
for the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, coming a
month ahead of the Budget, which he had hoped
would provide proof that the economy was
finally on the mend.
Questions For
Darling
My dear Darling why do you continually confuse
recovery with false demand from stimulus
efforts?
Are you listening to Krugman, Bernanke or both?
European Credit
Markets Flash Hot Warning Signal
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at the Telegraph is
reporting
Credit markets flash hottest warning signal
since crisis.
European credit
markets are flashing the most serious warnings
signs in a year as the yields on risker bonds
rise sharply and a string of companies cancel
share flotations, raising fears that the
recovery may falter in coming months.
Jitters over Chinese credit tightening and
default risks in Greece and Dubai are causing
bond vigilantes to batten down the hatches
across the world, bringing the most dramatic
credit rally for a century to a shuddering
halt.
The
Markit iTraxx Crossover index measuring yields
on lower-grade debt has jumped by almost 130
basis points since mid-January to 514, while
the main index of investment grade bonds has
jumped by a third to 93. "This is the
biggest move since the financial crisis in
early 2009, said Gavan Nolan, Markit's credit
analyst. "The index is a leading indicator so
it is a warning signal."
Dr Suki Mann, a credit specialist at Societe
Generale, said stronger companies should
weather any squall but concerns are mounting.
"The world has woken up to the real
possibility of a double dip. These are nervous
times," he said.
BusinessEurope, the EU-wide lobby, warned this
week of a "very worrying situation" as it
become harder to raise money at a viable cost,
if at all. The group called on the
European Central Bank to send a "clear signal"
about its collateral policy. Fears of tougher
ECB rules are a key factor causing market
flight from Greek debt.
The sudden halt in bond issues is disturbing
since companies have been relying on capital
markets to raise money as an alternative to
Europe's fragile banks. The ECB said on
Tuesday that 42pc of small businesses in the
eurozone had reported worsening credit
conditions in the second half of last year,
despite the emergency stimulus of the
authorities.
Conditions appear to be deteriorating. Bank
loans to companies contracted at an annual
rate of 1.9pc in November and 2.3pc in
December. Consumer credit also fell. The
Bundesbank fears that disastrous earnings last
year will cause scores of German companies to
breach loan covenants, triggering a wave of
downgrades that further damage German banks
and potentially setting off a second wave of
the credit crisis.
Party's Over
Unless things quickly reverse, the European
corporate bond market is signaling the party is
over. Mortgage lending and consumer loans in the
UK suggest the same thing.
The European recovery is on its last legs. The
global recovery will soon follow. Prepare for an
economic relapse. One is highly likely.