|
Is This Exciting or What? |
by
Larry Edelson
Is this
exciting or what? Gold has blasted above the important $1,035 level
... the price of copper has almost doubled since April ... platinum
and palladium prices are soaring ... and the price of oil has now
reached back above $80 a barrel, up more than 77% since February.
This is the
next phase of the natural resource price boom that I've been telling
you about. It's here. It's happening NOW. And despite the occasional
pullback, like the one that's occurring now, the rally is going to
last for years.
And unlike
past bull markets in natural resources, this one has two powerful
forces converging behind it, the combined strength of which I have
never seen before in my 32 years in the markets ...
Force #1: The Dollar's Worst Bear Market, Ever.
We've had
bear markets in the dollar before, but none as wicked as the current
one. The dollar has now lost more than 40% of its value since 2001 —
and is likely to lose as much as another 50%, before it's ultimately
replaced as the world's reserve currency.
Make no
mistake about it. No one ever thought it would happen. But it's
happening now and you can hear it in the cries of central banks all
over the world: From Russia, India, Japan, the Arab Gulf States — and
even from a slew of Latin American countries that are now banding
together to devise a new Latin American trade currency.
All you have
to do is take a look at the action in the U.S. Dollar Index ... the
most accurate way to gauge the dollar's international value. The index
has plunged from its high of 126.67 in 2001 to as low as 75.56 last
week, where it lay a meager 4 points away — merely 5% — from plunging
to a new record low.
As a result,
savvy investors — including sovereign wealth funds from all over the
world — are now seeking refuge in virtually any asset, and any
country, that offers a hedge against the plunging value of the dollar
... a better balance sheet ... and assets, like gold and oil, that
have tangible and real value.
But as
powerful and as entrenched as the dollar's bear market is, it's only
half the story, because of ...
Force #2: The Greatest Demand for Natural Resources, Ever.
Think demand
for natural resources slumped since the financial crisis took hold?
Yes, it did.
For about eight months. But it was nothing more than a knee-jerk
reaction to the worst financial crisis of all time.
|
 |
|
Global resources are being consumed at an
unsustainable pace. |
Meanwhile,
the rise of Asia ... fully 50% of the world's population ... more than
3 billion new souls — continues, with more than 90 million new
middle-class consumers joining the 21st century every year, and more
than 2 billion new middle-class consumers expected by the year 2030, a
short 20 years from now.
How will the
world cope with such demand for natural resources, even if the dollar
were stable, or rising in value?
The fact of
the matter is, sadly, Mother Nature most likely won't be able to cope
with the demand.
Indeed,
according to a recent, international study by The Living Planet, the
world is now heading for an "ecological credit crunch" far worse than
the current financial crisis.
Why? It's
simple: The world is now consuming nearly 30% more resources than the
Earth can replenish each year, resulting in an "ecological debt" of at
least $4 trillion EVERY YEAR — double the estimated losses made by the
world's financial institutions as a result of the credit crisis.
End
result: If nothing changes, by 2030, mankind will need two planet
Earths to sustain the world's lifestyle.
If that's
not enough to get your attention, then consider these cold, hard facts
...
1. Fully
three-quarters of the world's population now lives in countries which
consume more than they can replenish.
2. By 2025,
three billion people may not have access to clean potable water for
bathing and drinking.
3.
Malnutrition now affects 2 billion people today.
4.
Consumption of raw materials from base metals to agriculture is
expected to rise to 170% of the Earth's capacity by the year 2040 —
leading to the end-life of some of the world's most important base
resources needed to sustain economic growth.
Put another
way, the world is running out of copper, tin, aluminum, lead, zinc,
uranium, and more.
In as little
as 13 years, we will be out of rare earth metals such as indium,
antimony, hafnium, and tantalum.
Perhaps
worst of all ...
5. The
International Energy Agency (IEA) now officially acknowledges that oil
production is likely to peak in about 10 years — at least a decade
earlier than previously estimated.
According to
the IEA, even if demand for oil remained steady — instead of climbing
— the world would have to find the equivalent of four Saudi Arabias to
maintain production.
Add in
conservative projections for increased oil demand, and the
IEA has stated the world could reach a major "oil crunch"
within the next five years.
Mark my
words: The next major crisis will not be in real estate ... banking
... the stock markets ... or even in the plunging dollar.
It will be
where the above two forces manifest themselves — in natural resources,
whose prices are inversely related to the value of the dollar and
directly related to the demand that is now being put on them, and
Mother Earth.
Two
MANDATORY steps you should be taking NOW ...
From an
environmental and social perspective, naturally, you should become
acutely aware of the problems Mother Earth faces in the years ahead.
That means being more respectful to the environment, more green,
conserving and recycling what you can.
Each of us
has to do our part. Not only to help Mother Earth, but to help those
less fortunate than us and in desperate need of resources we take for
granted.
From a
financial standpoint, to protect the purchasing power of your wealth,
there are two steps I consider absolutely mandatory for today and the
years ahead ...
1.
Seek out "contra-dollar" investments that do well as the dollar falls.
That
includes putting some of your dollars directly into strengthening
foreign currencies such as Australian, New Zealand, Canadian and
Singapore dollars ... or indirectly by purchasing inverse dollar
investments such as the PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Bearish
Fund (UDN), an ETF that gains in value as the dollar falls.
2.
Allocate a substantial portion of your portfolio to tangible assets,
natural resources — that are in FINITE supply.
That means
buying gold. It means investing in oil ... copper ... tin ... aluminum
... zinc ... nickel ... rare earth metals, and more.
In
investments such as the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) ...
or the ELEMENTS Rogers Intl Commodity ETN (RJI), an
Exchange Traded Note that is similar to an ETF and which tracks the
commodity sector — and other natural resource-based ETFs and mutual
funds.
And in
select natural resource stocks and investments that I recommend in
Real Wealth Report, my monthly publication where
I help you time your buys and sells to maximize your profit potential.
Best wishes,
Larry