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Joel Bowman, back in his natural habitat, reports from the Gold Coast,
Australia...
One of the first things one notices about Australia after having been
away for any length of time is the arresting color scheme. We rode the
train from Brisbane Airport down to our family's house here on The Gold
Coast this morning. The track weaves through a rich tapestry of yellows
and oranges.
Almost everything is some shade of a rusted auburn...from the corrugated
iron roofs of the old Queenslander homes to the railroad spikes to the
doors on the old Holden automobiles and, of course, the shoulders of the
outdoor, sports-loving people. The "Sunburned Country," they call it.
Your editor arrived on Friday, a day after the Aussie stock market shed
$30 billion dollars, or about 2.7%. It was the forth consecutive day the
index ended in the red. The Aussie dollar, after having outpaced gold's
meteoric rise over the past few months, also fell against the greenback.
We hadn't seen Friday's numbers when we jotted these few notes on the
train but, all in all, it wasn't a great week for the Aussie markets.
Nevertheless, most businesses here are of the mind that the worst of the
economic crisis is long gone. Eighty-five percent of businesses said as
much, according to the Veda Advantage Business Sentiment survey,
released to The Australian this week. Moreover, over half of
respondents said Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's record-breaking $42 billion
stimulus did not improve business prospects in any meaningful way. We'll
see how they do when the taps run dry, as they soon will.
Appetite for risk, you see, is eroding. Investors around the globe are
beginning to ask themselves exactly what this "recovery" is founded on
and whether it can last. The IMF warns that growth in the Asian region
is set to fall again. They caution that poor economic data from the US
will continue to dampen export-reliant Asian economies...especially once
government gifts and stopgaps expire.
We'll "see how she goes," as they say, during the week and, between
barbeques and beers with friends, we'll bring you a few notes from our
temporary post.
But, for now, please read on for the week's Daily Reckoning
columns and highlights. Also, feel free to email us your thoughts at the
address below...
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ALSO THIS WEEK in The Daily Reckoning: |
The Truth About Energy
By Puru Saxena
Hong Kong, China
After oscillating within a trading range for several weeks, the price of
crude oil has recently broken out to a new recovery high. Now, you will
recall that we have been firm believers of 'Peak Oil' since 2003 and we
were expecting this bullish resolution.
Peak Oil - The Risks
By Byron King
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Eighty-five million barrels a day.
That's the world's current production of crude oil...and that may very
well be close to the world's PEAK production of crude oil. Although the
recession caused a temporary decrease in consumption, demand is already
bouncing back toward pre-crisis levels. Too bad production isn't.
Peak Oil - The Rewards
By Byron King
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
We should expect a global oil shock by 2012...at the latest. But an oil
shock doesn't have to be completely shocking. Why not beat the rush and
get ready for the shock now. You might even make a few dollars in the
process.
The Kiss of Debt
By Bill Bonner
Gualfin, Argentina
Regular readers of this space will recognize this as the third in a
series. Irregular readers will not recognize it at all. They will look
at us as though we had come from Mars. Earthlings are all convinced that
a financial crisis of cosmic proportions is upon us. Had the authorities
failed to act last autumn, with determination and speed, it would have
been the end of the world. In the popular mind the politicians have
saved capitalism from its own excesses.
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And the Daily Endnote: We have only one final thought
today, dear reader: that half a raw onion is the best thing to clean a
barbeque with, hands down.
We'll be back next week with more thoughts. In the meantime, why not
send us a few thoughts of your own. We'd love to here 'em.
Until next time...
Cheers,
Joel Bowman
The Daily Reckoning
joel@dailyreckoning.com |
