Long-Count for the Dow – Don’t be fooled Again

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Trader at Screen

Considering the widespread collective failure and insolvency of the financial markets and global monetary systems in 2008/2009, you tell me if the Dow/S&P are fundamentally worthy of revisiting their respective bubble-laden historic highs from which they previously crashed with good cause.

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In my view, the heady price action of the tape is nothing more than a manifestation of an imposed perception of fictitious reality brought about via the highly corrupt, unjust, immoral, and ultimately treasonous self-serving apparatus of a rather vulnerable authoritarian government and those foundational institutions of human domination to which they truly serve.

DOW COUNT as of Jan 23-2013

Despite my personal views on distinguishing fact from fiction and reality from perception, my duty as an analyst remains impartially beholden to the price action, regardless of the way and means by which it manifests.

All those who have diligently followed my work over the years are well aware that I rely upon the predictive properties of technical analysis and Elliott Wave merely as a conformational framework of probable tendency rather than any sort of science, arcane alchemy, or dare I say religion.

The Reality of Fiction-Based Position Bias

Although wave counts, chart patterns, and price targets have merit, I base my official time-horizon guidance for members solely upon proprietary trading strategies as illustrated via the Trend Signal Bias indicator located in the lower chart panel.

The strategic position bias protocols applied know not of egregious intervention nor emotionally charged opinions of any persuasion. The position bias protocol simply responds to the nominal price action itself.

Since November of 2009, this long-term strategic protocol has been bullish on the Dow, and shall remain so until a sell signal visually confirms such an event.

Soon we will be posting the lifetime performance metrics of these strategies, which will illustrate and verify how each has fared against various markets and time horizons. Stay tuned.

Long-Count & Fictional Price Targets within the current realm of Artificial Reality

Outside the purview of our strategic position bias protocols, we cite additional upside in the Dow north of 16K as plausible. If achieved, we are prospecting that early April and late August of 2013 represent the earliest time horizon in which the Dow might reach such lofty targets.

Also outside the purview of our position bias protocols, we cite the possibility for an imminent failure of the Dow to achieve the substantial level of a minor degree –e- wave overthrow required to capture such targets.

Insofar as the long-count goes in tracking the fiction otherwise known as the miraculous stock market recovery, which is widely perceived as attributable to the brilliance of our monetary and social handlers, the 4-year Bull Run is getting somewhat long in the tooth.

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Relative to the application of a classic Elliott Wave framework, the long-standing question as to the degree of trend in force remains a mystery solved only by the forthcoming price action over the next several years.

DOW COUNT as of Jan 23-2013-2

Although completely incidental relative to our position bias protocols, pondering whether or not the 2009 low marked that of a Primary vs. Cycle degree base remains rather intriguing nonetheless.

The prognosis would be startlingly bearish if the 2009 low turns out to be only that of a Primary degree base simply because it would suggest that the current bull market rally is a phony primary degree “B” wave.

On the other hand, if the 2009 low turns out to be one degree larger, at Cycle dimension, then there is at least the possibility that when the current primary “A” move up terminates, although it will lead to a primary bear market down in wave “B”, another primary “C” wave advance can be bullishly anticipated.

Thereafter, that last primary leg up shall end the entire fairy tale/Ponzi scheme. Upon the completion of a future primary degree “C” wave advance, it will cap the insidious and unmerciful cresting of the “B” wave at cycle dimension.

Upon its arrival, when and wherever it may occur, the quaking of the “B” wave crest at Cycle Dimension will tip the 100-year punchbowl off its alter of evil, and shatter it into several hundred trillion unfixable pieces.

This event shall either mark the beginning of the end toward a prolonged age of darkness, or it shall mark the beginning of struggle and sacrifice toward a new renaissance of truth, laws, equality, and justice that will usher in a substantial period of lasting peace, harmony, and broad based prosperity.

Nobody in this pack will ever be fooled again

The arbiter of such outcome shall not rest with the ruling class, governments, foundational institutions, or global authorities, but with the awareness and the sheer will of each individual taking responsibility for and deciding their individual fate collectively, one by one.

For whatever it may be worth to you, rest assured that no matter what the outcome or when, either hedged in tangible assets or maintaining exposure to paper-based assets of debt, our pack will always run briskly on the right side of the market.

If recent history is any guide, the moment that danger signs appear in the near distance, we shall part company with legions of a noticeably disoriented herd heading assuredly for another round of relentless slaughter.

Given the virtually assured pathetic repetition of history, I strongly advise travelling within close proximity to a strong pack that has proven itself capable of having the rational wherewithal to break from the herd when duly appropriate.

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avatarJoe Russo - Elliott Wave Technology posted Thursday, January 24th, 2013.

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