Politics

Ten days before the last federal election I knew I was toast. Voted in as a Conservative and vowing to promote digital democracy, I’d pissed off Stephen Harper with my independence and my lip. I blogged. I posted video interviews with people from other parties. I let my constituents vote online, then followed their wishes. When reporters asked me questions, I answered. In other words, as an MP, I sucked. I was doomed. And I got dooced.

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After sitting as an independent for a few months, I learned the true nature of irrelevance. So I asked the Liberals if there was room for a Progressive Conservative, then joined. It was clear the morning I walked into a barrage of cameras in the new caucus room that I was unelectable. But at least I figured there was a structure to fight for my policy initiatives – pension-splitting, the creation of the TFSA and more damn freedom in the House of Commons.

Ten days before the vote. Twenty-nine months ago. Ignatieff calls. He was then second fiddle to a guy he believed had unjustly defeated him for the leadership (anyone remember Dion?). And he shocked me with his comments. It was a stark reminder where naked ambition can lead a man. I kicked the door shut, grabbed a pen and recorded the conversation.

After failing as a Harper Tory because I wouldn’t muzzle, I was now disheartened to know what lay ahead for the Grits. I can understand people who fight for conviction, but not those who kill for convenience. Mr. Ignatieff could have waited a week and a half before knifing his leader.

So I mention this as personal background. I was in Parliament nine years. I’ll never go back. Both main parties have lost their way. Conservatives have become Liberals. Libs have failed the middle class. Socialists are spent and Greens have squandered. This election is a good example. It’s about nothing.

But will the outcome have any impact? That’s what Michael in Calgary writes:

The election is now a certainty. This will now ensure that the BoC must put off their interest rate hike, the one Mark Carney is so horned up on, until later this year. I am interested on your thoughts on what this means to the housing situation. Obviously it kicks the can down the road somewhat for all those homeowners who are holding the VRMs which are set to blow up once we get back to normalized interest rates. I am a cynic at best, so I am almost tempted to think that Harper foresaw this and wanted the government defeated so that he could not be blamed for the impending collapse. So where do things go from here? Do the leaders of the short-bus parties form a collation and then when the brown stuff hits the fan implode, giving Harper his much sought after majority? Or do you think the Conservatives are strong enough to get a majority this time around (I sure hope not) and then it doesn’t matter what happens from that point? I am unconvinced that they have enough strength to win a majority at this point in time, but am concerned that there is not enough of a strong opposition that this could well happen. Before this digresses into a political discussion I will shut up and await your comments on what this means to housing and our economy at large.

After Mr. Harper spends six weeks scaring the crap out of people about a Lib-NDP-separatist coalition, the likely outcome is another Conservative government. That’s the end of (a) Ignatieff, (b) Layton et (c) Duceppe. Minority or majority, I think the impact on the economy will be the same. Clearly Mr. Harper is happy about this election, and worked hard to provoke its calling. Voters couldn’t care less about contempt of Parliament, because politics is all about them. By forcing this now, the government shields itself from some of the inevitable events to come.

Higher rates are one. Yes, the Bank of Canada is hot to normalize rates and will still be adding 1% to the prime rate this year, and lots more after that. Absolutely this will have an impact on people who bought houses with no money – but the consequences are now a political eternity away in late 2011 and 2012. There will be no Mark Carney thunder until after May. Ironically, rate hikes later this year may be stiffer as a result.

Then there’s the austerity. Be assured if the next budget is a Conservative one it’ll start making government smaller, trimming the civil service (except CRA), winding down the stimulus spending and sticking it to the provinces. Lots of people will applaud this. Look at the Rob Ford factor in Toronto. But it will also slow economic recovery, and help topple housing.

As for a coalition government, seems more than remote. Already the negative spin has hit the international financial media. Said Bloomberg: “Opposition lawmakers toppled Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s government, triggering an election that may result in an alliance to reverse his corporate tax cuts and overturn plans for more military spending.  While polls show the governing Conservatives would likely win the most seats in an election, the main opposition Liberal Party may seek to form an alliance or formal coalition to govern if Harper, 51, doesn’t win a majority…”

And what of Mr. Harper’s threat an election will murder the economy in a time of risk?

Forget that. Markets don’t care.

In the fall of 2008 as the financial crisis swept over us, equities plunged, jobs washed away, real estate tanked and investors freaked, Stephen Harper promised if we voted for him there’d be no recession, no deficit. And Michael Ignatieff was telling me it was all about him.

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Days later, my defeat. It tasted like freedom.